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‘AGW’ Not Causing Larger Disaster Losses

From the ‘Opinion’ section of the New York Times:

Study Finds No Link Tying Disaster Losses to Human-Driven Warming

August 23, 2010

The pull of the “front-page thought” and the eagerness of climate campaigners to jog the public have sometimes created a tendency to tie mounting losses from weather-related disasters to human-driven global warming.

Fortunately, neither Mr. Revkin nor anyone else at the New York Times has ever claimed such a preposterous linkage. – Except only on days ending in ‘y.’

But finding a statistically robust link between such disasters and the building human climate influence remains a daunting task.

Of course such an approach has nothing to do with practicing real ‘science.’

A new analysis of nearly two dozen papers assessing trends in disaster losses in light of climate change finds no convincing link. The author concludes that, so far, the rise in disaster losses is mainly a function of more investments getting in harm’s way as communities in places vulnerable to natural hazards grow.

Such as building and re-building a city below sea level, in the middle of three large bodies of water. (Cf. New Orleans.)

The paper — “Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?” — is in press in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. It was written by Laurens M. Bouwer, a researcher at Vrije University in Amsterdam focused on climate and water resources (and a lead author of a chapter in the 2001 assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

In other words, the author is — or was — one of Gaia’s own acolytes.

Here’s the summary…

The increasing impact of natural disasters over recent decades has been well documented, especially the direct economic losses and losses that were insured. Claims are made by some that climate change has caused more losses, but others assert that increasing exposure due to population and economic growth has been a much more important driver. Ambiguity exists today, as the causal link between climate change and disaster losses has not been addressed in a systematic manner by major scientific assessments.

Here I present a review and analysis of recent quantitative studies on past increases in weather disaster losses and the role of anthropogenic climate change. Analyses show that although economic losses from weather related hazards have increased, anthropogenic climate change so far did not have a significant impact on losses from natural disasters. The observed loss increase is caused primarily by increasing exposure and value of capital at risk. This finding is of direct importance for studies on impacts from extreme weather and for disaster policy.

There goes Mr. Bouwer’s grant money.

The bottom line? Regardless of what happens due to global warming, on a crowding, urbanizing planet, increased exposure to, and losses from, nature’s hard knocks are a sure thing if people keep settling in harm’s way.

No, the ‘bottom line’ is that there is no evidence to show that ‘manmade global warming’ is causing any increase in the costs of financial losses due to weather – despite the incessant claims to the contrary from propagandists like The Times.

If there were such a thing as ‘manmade global warming,’ then there should be a significant increase in financial losses due to it. But there isn’t.

None of this negates the importance of moving to limit emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases; the analysis just reinforces the reality that while that effort proceeds, there’s plenty of other work to do, as well, if humanity desires a relatively smooth journey in this century

What laughable gibberish. But of course without the threat of the horrors of ‘man made global warming’ Mr. Revkin, like so many hacks, would be out of a job.

You can read the rest of the Mr. Bouwer’s summary and download a pdf of his full report here.

This article was posted by Steve on Wednesday, August 25th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

3 Responses to “‘AGW’ Not Causing Larger Disaster Losses”

  1. Liberals Demise says:

    Soft hands…..no calluses…..
    Get a REAL job you flake!

  2. untrainable says:

    None of this negates the importance of moving to limit emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases

    So essentially, no matter what anyone says, no matter what the facts are, no matter what REAL scientists might say… We need cap and trade.

    Facts are so subjective. Like whisps of smoke in a tornado.

  3. proreason says:

    “The increasing impact of natural disasters over recent decades has been well documented”


    But it doesn’t have anything to do with the increase in human population or the fact that the structures in the world now exceed 50 years ago by a factor of 4, which was 4 times the previous 50 years. It has to be global warming. There can be no other explanation for the increasing impact of natural disasters.

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