SubscribeIce Age Cometh - Due To Fewer Sunspots
From The Australian:
Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh
Phil Chapman | April 23, 2008
THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.
What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.
Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.
All four agencies that track Earth’s temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.
There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770…
This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
It didn’t happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.
The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth’s climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.
Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.
That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern.
It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.
There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.
Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.
There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet.
The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years.
The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.
The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.
By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.
Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time…
We cannot really know, but my guess is that the odds are at least 50-50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in coming decades…
It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.
In the famous words of Oliver Cromwell, “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.”
Phil Chapman is a geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in San Francisco. He was the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut.
Of course the ‘Gaia firsters’ will never admit to error.
But when have true believers ever let facts get in the way of their religion?
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17 Responses to “Ice Age Cometh - Due To Fewer Sunspots”
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April 22nd, 2008 at 12:34 pm
It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.
Sit back and get ready for some great skiing, that’s what!
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I can see it now, Algore begging us all to buy SUV’s and drive everywhere, even to the mailbox, turn up our thermostats to burn more fuel and cut down more trees for firewood. Of corse I jest. He’ll never admit what a complete fool and liar he is, but it would be funny.
Now this can still mean they were right. That’s why they stopped using "Global Warming" and started saying "Global Climate Change" so as to cover all the bases. Somehow, this will still be our fault and we will have to pay Al and his buddies to fix it and no scientist will lose any credibility in the press.
Happy Earth Day and Lenin’s birthday! Bwaaaaahahahahahh!!! LOL!
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
So now we NEED ‘Global warming’ to avert the coming ice age, I’m so confused! Do I drive my V8 truck, or the gas miser car, decisions, decisions…. Maybe I should wait for Al to tell me…..
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
As usual it is up to a sailor to save the day. My carbon footprint is as big as Cindy "I need a smoothie before I can make an ass of myself’ Shehag’s butt (BIGGGGG!!!)
Yeppers, I drive about 200 miles a day in my gas munching Lincoln and fart as much as I can (methane you know). More cows are needed more and more because we eat some serious amounts of beef in this household. Use the good old lightbulbs too.
Yep, forget Gore, CO2 some more!
BTW, did you hug your tree today?
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:57 am
Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time
*sigh* If Ice Ages lasted 100,000 years, we’d still be in the last one. Link Even the Great Ice Age of 650,000 years ago only lasted 50,000 years. Still, it makes a better story than the truth, I suppose.
Still, we had global cooling in the 70’s, global warming in the 90’s, so I suppose we’re due for another global cooling trend. I just wish nature would hurry up and decide. All these wardrobe changes are beginning to tell on me.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:19 am
During the Maunder Minimum, circa AD 1645 to AD 1715, sunspot activity was reduced such as when it picked up again in the 18th century, sunspots were thought to be a new scientific discovery. This was also known as the "Little Ice Age". It coincided with the European era of exploration and expansion where people migrated away from Europe to North America. The motivation for this was partially explained through climate change. Sorry Owl Gore looks like we are headed there again!
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:37 am
“Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time”
*sigh* If Ice Ages lasted 100,000 years, we’d still be in the last one.
++++
We are.
It’s a terminology thang.
From Wikipedia:
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:10 am
We technicaly are still in an Ice Age due to the fact that we have permanent glaciers on continents year around. But the worst news comes from Geology, it seems for 80% of the Earth’s Geologic History, BC or BCE whatever, there were no permanent continental glaciers on the landmasses that existed at the time. So long before SUV’s, Biofuels, Bike Trails, Industrial Revolution et al we were not only warm and toasty but also a lot WARMER. Even worse news from Astronomy, the Sun is now 40% Hotter than when it was after it first ignited approximately 4.5 Billion years ago. Guess the Global Warming Crowd are REALLY going to have to find hippie science to justify their socialist positions. Hope this helps and have a nice day! ;-)
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:31 am
Chalk up another person who must be destroyed by the Global Warming believers.
The man will now be ostracized, laughed at as a kook at appearances and so on.
Blasphemer!
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:07 am
The Warm-mongers have already anticipated a reversal of fortune. They’ve been pushing the Orwellian term "climate change" as a substitute for "global warming" — check out any Lamestream Media climate news story lately. That way, whether the global mean temperature goes up or it goes down, they’ve got their justification to legislate us back into the Stone Age.
It was never about global warming; it was always about implementing their Marxist agenda.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:21 am
I find it ironic that the oil companies are inadvertently helping to reduce greenhouse emissions….I just witnessed gasoline prices climb from 3.52 a gallon at 8am….to 3.78 a gallon by 3pm yesterday. No new deliveries….just the retailer jumping on the gouge wagon.
So, without realizing it, by causing people to use their cars for work and emergencies only, the oil companies are reducing the carbon footprint drastically….because now, restaurants are closing, small businesses are closing, larger companies are cutting back, and sur charges for fuel are appearing on invoices from delivery companies. Yup! By making the price of gasoline more and more unaffordable, and by forcing businesses to close in record numbers due to the lack of consumers’ being able to afford anything but essentials, the oil companies indeed are helping the environment in a way they never dreamed they could!
Good for them! Because for the first time ever…the only companies that still rack up increased net profits like they have for years are the oil companies, the futures traders, and anyone associated with petro dollars. Everyone else is kind of in a bind….and gas will be 5.00 a gallon before june…..the oil companies have discovered that our media has softened the blow of obscene profiteering for them….
and they will continue to gouge the hell out of the public because they know they can do it with impunity. Like insurance companies, once they know you have to have what they sell…..they sit back and comfortably take every last dime they can…..and eff you. I cant wait for the huge backlash coming…..there is a limit economically to what people can afford. It is reaching that limit soon….
April 24th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Alright, I’m not a believer in global warming (at least, in the way the liberals put it), but…
The sources that the author of the article quote actually didn’t report that decrease in temperature… Rather, they reported a .2 degree increase instead. Unfortunately, this makes us anti-global warming proponents look bad.
April 24th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
“The sources that the author of the article quote actually didn’t report that decrease in temperature… Rather, they reported a .2 degree increase instead.”
Are you talking about this paragraph:
“All four agencies that track Earth’s temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007.”
Do you have a link?
April 25th, 2008 at 9:46 am
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/
Hmm, apparently I misread it the first time through… the .2 degree increase was from another year. Odd way they worded that… But they still say it actually got warmer since 2006:
“The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the “El Niño of the century”. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle.”
April 25th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Thanks, Alectos.
It seems to me there have been several articles that have pointed out that global temperatures have been steady or falling since 1998.
I’m not sure how anyone can get a global temperature in the first place, anyway.
April 25th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
This sucks I was looking forward to global warming, i friggin hate the cold.
April 25th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
…..”I’m not sure how anyone can get a global temperature in the first place, anyway…”
Just call it a hunch, SG, but if you were going to give the world an enema, you’d put the syringe in Washington D.C. So why not check the temperature, too? ;-}