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Analysis: Record 88 Million Not In Labor Force

From Townhall:

Record 88 Million not in Labor Force – Complete Employment Analysis

By Mike Shedlock
4/7/2012

Quick Notes About the [March] Unemployment Rate

* US Unemployment Rate dropped .01 to 8.2%
* In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,604,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,315,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,289,000.
* The Civilian Labor Force fell by 164,000.
* Those "Not in Labor Force" increased by 310,000.
* Those "Not in Labor Force" is at a new record high of 87,897,000.

Which means there are 88 million people who are really unemployed but who are not being called unemployed by the Obama Labor Department and their news media.

* By the Household Survey, the number of people employed fell by 31,000.
* By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,270,000.
* Participation Rate fell .1 to 63.8%
* Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data

Since a recent employment low in February 2010, nonfarm payrolls have expanded by 3.6 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, 41 percent have been recovered.

Only 41%!

Statistically, 125,000+- jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat… The average employment gain over the last 25 months has been 143,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has fell from 9.8% to 8.3%

It’s magic. Or maybe voodoo.

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,604,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,315,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,289,000.

That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes…

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%

The official unemployment rate is 8.2%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is… labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.5%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

Note the drop in U-6 unemployment this month as the Civilian Labor Force fell by 164,000. This is beyond statistical noise, to the point of pure statistical bullsheet.

As the saying goes, ‘there are lies, damns lies, and then there are statistics headlines.’

This article was posted by Steve on Monday, April 9th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

4 Responses to “Analysis: Record 88 Million Not In Labor Force”

  1. Astravogel says:

    I like “running-dog media” myself. It
    fits in well with TCP’s socialist actions.

  2. Rusty Shackleford says:

    “Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has fell from 9.8% to 8.3%…”

    Mr Shedlock, who I’m sure is quite proud that he can tell his pals that he’s a “writer” needs to go back to English class and learn how to construct a sentence. Specifically, verb tenses.

    fall
    fell
    have or has fallen

    “Has fell” is poor grammar. But, I’m probably being a persnickety conservative, all hung up on rules ‘n’ stuff. After all, his English teachers in grade and high school cared not about punctuation, spelling and proper sentence structure or tense. As long as they could understand what he was trying to say, then that was just fine.

    As the years have progressed, reporters’ ability to actually write at all, let alone well, has diminished to the point of absurdity.

    • untrainable says:

      Thanks Rusty. I was beginning to think I was the only person in America who still cared about such things. Then again, I AM a persnickety conservative all hung up on rules ‘n’ stuff. However in defense of the “writer” here, it is most difficult to spell and speak properly when you live in your mother’s basement, spend your days listening solely to liberal bastards like that wierd little guy on MSNBC… I think his name is Rachael Maddow… and “single handedly” typing while in your underwear.

      Most media these days is an exercise in masturbatory rape. They beat themselves into believeing what they’re told to believe.

  3. Liberals Demise says:

    Your last paragraph is quite a hoot! Thanks for the chuckle!!


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