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AP: Declining Jobless % Will Re-Elect Obama

From Obama’s re-election team at the Associated Press:

AP survey: Steady job gains to sustain US recovery

May 3, 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) — Hiring through the rest of 2012 will lag the brisk pace set early this year. But it will be strong enough to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day.

That’s the view that emerges from an Associated Press survey of 32 leading economists who foresee a gradually brighter jobs picture. Despite higher gas prices, Europe’s debt crisis and a weak housing market, they think the economy has entered a "virtuous cycle" in which hiring boosts consumer spending, which fuels more hiring and spending.

Are these the same economists who always predict that the jobless numbers are going to be better than they turn out to be — week after week and month after month?

[T]he economists think the recovery will manage to reduce unemployment to 7.9 percent by Election Day from 8.2 percent in March.

Apparently, these economists have heard the popular claim that no US President has ever been re-elected with unemployment over 8%, except for FDR. Unfortunately, that is not accurate. The fact is no President has ever been re-elected since FDR with unemployment over 7.2%.

Luckily, this same Paul Wiseman of the AP has recently learned that inconvenient truth, and he has been revamping the AP’s strategy as fast as he can:

Falling unemployment would boost President Barack Obama’s prospects in November. Going back to 1956, no president has lost re-election when the unemployment rate dropped in the two years before the election. And none has won when the rate rose over that time.

So the AP is once again reminding themselves and their colleagues that they have to move heaven and earth to make it seem like unemployment is going down in the run up to the the November elections.

Which, of course, they have already been doing with their non-stop inaccurate headlines that are based on inaccurate and always revised up numbers.

Unemployment was 9.8 in November 2010. If the surveyed economists prove correct, the rate will be nearly 2 percentage points lower when Americans vote on Nov. 6

In any case, that is what the AP and their fellow travelers in the news media will tell us.

The economists expect job growth to average 177,000 a month from April through June and 189,000 in the second half of the year. That would be down from an average 212,000 jobs added monthly from January through March. Last year, job growth averaged 158,000 a month…

Apparently, they have been talking to Joe Biden.

"The job market is improving enough that consumer spending can grow at a moderate pace as opposed to an anemic pace," says Phillip Swagel, a University of Maryland economist. "Businesses are finally confident enough to hire and invest."

Sure they are.

By the way, a mere ten paragraphs later, Mr. Swagel is cited as singing a very different tune:

"There’s still a ton of uncertainty about the future of tax and regulatory policy," says Swagel, a Treasury Department official under President George W. Bush. "Business that might be tempted to expand say, ‘I don’t know what my taxes will be in three years.’"


This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

6 Responses to “AP: Declining Jobless % Will Re-Elect Obama”

  1. River0 says:

    This is laughably bogus, a variation of the now-familiar “unexpected” gambit, i.e., “the poor job numbers were unexpected” .

    The Regime Media has wrapped a rope around its neck, and it’s about to fall through the trap door. Approval of television and print media is in the low double digits, except for Fox.

    The ‘progressives’ are embarrassing, shameful, and corrupt.

  2. GetBackJack says:

    Seen on Lucianne.com this morning

    Referring to the role the MSM performed in getting Obama elected, and that they participated …

    They not only participated, they carried him around in sedan chairs and licked his feet

    That’s the Gran Prix Comment, 2012

  3. mr_bill says:

    “Despite higher gas prices, Europe’s debt crisis and a weak housing market, they think the economy has entered a ‘virtuous cycle’ in which hiring boosts consumer spending, which fuels more hiring and spending.”

    That’s like saying:
    Despite a broken leg, a gaping flesh wound, and a torn ACL, the commentators believe that the runner will be able to complete the marathon in less than 30 minutes.

    Crack sales must be going up if people believe this rubbish.

    • untrainable says:

      Good one mrB.
      But you forgot to mention the runner had a heart attack, stopped breathing, and fell down, which caused the broken leg, which caused the gaping wound and the torn ACL. They’re talking about putting a band-aid on the leg without worrying about restarting the guy’s heart. Oh, he’ll finish the race alright… on a gurney with a sheet over his head in the coroner’s wagon.


  4. Chrispbass says:

    If the media is suffering so much then where are ‘they’ getting all this info that they are buying in to? It’s obvious BS but I see it regurgitated all over the place.
    Not sayin’ the comment the media is not true.

  5. Tater Salad says:

    Elizabeth Warren exposed: The complete……….Fraud that she is:

    If Massachusetts elects the challenger to Senator Scott Brown, they will also be electing a 1/32nd. Indian (maybe) who used this declaration to acquire monetary gains in her education at the taxpayers expense. This is called……Re-Distribution and Fraud. Seems that Elizabeth Warren is no more Indian than Ted Kennedy was.


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