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AP: GDP Up, Recession Is Over (Again)

From a giddy Associated Press:

Economy grows in 3Q, signals end of recession

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON – The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes.

The Commerce Department’s report Thursday delivered the strongest signal yet that the economy entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

Many analysts expect the pace of the budding recovery to be plodding due to rising unemployment and continuing difficulties by both consumers and businesses to secure loans.

"We’re beginning to crawl out a very deep hole," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "It will take time to get back to normal again and there are questions about how consumers will hold up in the months ahead. But I think the recovery will be sustained."

The much-awaited turnaround ended the streak of four straight quarters of contracting economic activity, the first time that’s happened on records dating to 1947.

It also marked the first increase since the spring of 2008, when the economy experienced a short-lived uptick in growth.

The third-quarter’s performance — the strongest since right before the country fell into recession in December 2007 — was slightly better than the 3.3 percent growth rate economists expected…

Would it be cynical to wonder if we can trust any of these numbers, especially in light of today’s other news about the stimulus jobs?

But do note how the Associated Press once again had to put in their relentless disinformation that the recession began in December 2007.

By the way, remember how our media masters used to howl whenever the economy grew at a rate less than 4%? Of course that was only during Republican administrations.

And speaking of the AP’s propagandizing ways, notice how this article does not mention any of the caveats that appear in the press release from the Bureau Of Economic Analysis, from which the AP’s information derives:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:  THIRD QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2009

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 5).  The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 24, 2009…

If Mr. Bush were still President, wouldn’t the AP have stressed how these GDP figures are based on advanced estimates and are therefore very preliminary?

Wouldn’t the AP remind us that they are often revised downward – sometimes quite drastically? (These are all rhetorical questions, of course.)

Still, let’s hope these projections turn out to be true and America once again proves that nobody can hold it down for long.

Not even Mr. Obama, the Democrats and their media.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, October 29th, 2009. Comments are currently closed.

9 Responses to “AP: GDP Up, Recession Is Over (Again)”

  1. BannedbytheTaliban

    Given the economist at the AP believe that “government-supported spending on cars and homes” will lead to an economic system were “the recovery will be sustained” it is no wonder they are constantly flummoxed by unexpected unemployment numbers, consumer confidence, home sales (both new and existing), property values, inflation, etc. They have absolutely no clue on how an economy works.

    Also amazing is that government fueled stimulus under G.W. was a poly that resulted in only a temporary increase in GDP, while Obama’s unprecedented deficit spending was surely a gift from God that will result in sustained growth. Nope, no media bias there.

    It will be fun to see if we are still in a recession if Q4 GDP is negative.

  2. Rusty Shackleford

    Still, let’s hope these projections turn out to be true and America once again proves that nobody can hold it down for long.

    Sadly, the boy will take credit for it and the blind-faith droolers will put him back in office for it.

    Then we’ll really see some s___

  3. proreason

    To put this in perspective, since Obamy’s cabal began destroying the economy to install the child king, the GDP declined about 3.75% followed by a rise of .9% last quarter. All of the figures in the graph and “report” are annualized. Note the word “rate”. That means annualized.

    The rise seems counterintuitive, doesn’t it? How can our country’s output INCREASE when we know from EVERY source that employment is decreasing? How can we make more stuff with fewer people? Did magic happen and everyone begin producing 4 or 5% more? Do hard times make us smarter?

    Let’s explore…….because the msm will never explain it to you.

    Hears what Wikipedia says about GDP:

    “GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)”

    I highlighted the key phrase that explains how GDP can RISE when production couldn’t possibly have risen. GOVERNMENT SPENDING.

    This explains:

    a. Why the decline over the prior year is so minor when we all know how severe the recession has been.
    b. Why the upturn is so rosy. The Stimulus Scam kicked in. A .9% rise equates to about $108B in new “product” (i.e., government spending).
    c. All of that spending has 0 economic value. Not a penney would is justified.

    Well, guess what, “Stimulus Spending” alone has been $96B since May 22. Adjusting for the last 3 months instead of that 5 months period says that the “Stimulus Spending” in Q3 was probably north of $60B (since the spending is accelerating).

    Michelle’s staff, the czars, date nights, and other government spending accounts for the other $48B.

    Here are the links:

    http://rutledgecapital.com/200.....een-spent/ (spending through May22 was $24.6B).

    http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/.....enciesDesc (spending so far is $120.1B)

    Now, what price have YOU paid to get the .9% increase in GDP?

    Well, you spent about $100B to get it. Prior to the ObamySoros War on the Economy, gross income tax receipts were about $1 Trillion, so remember what you paid in taxes for 2007. The 9/10th of a percent increase in GDP has cost you 10% of what you paid in taxes in 2007…..plus interest. So far.

    But you paid the real costs when you lost most of your life savings in Sept/Oct 2008. And the rest of the bill will come due when inflation shoots over 10% within a couple of years. Several hundred thousand senior citizens will die before their time when that happens. They won’t be able to afford medical care.

    UPDATE: note the upblib in Q2 2008. That was the result of the much smaller Bush Stimuls. I used to wonder why it went up just because money was given away. That’s because I thought “Domestic Product” meant what the country produced. Silly me, it also includes what the government flushes down the toilet.

    Now, look at what happened after Q2 2008…..some help huh?

    • Douglas

      Out of curiosity, what would that graph look like if the equation were:

      “GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports) – Government Borrowing”

    • proreason

      And now it is clear how our Political Criminals will claim to have saved the economy for the election of 2010.

      They will simply continue to borrow and spend like drunken sailors.

      They will spend enough to make the GDP go up 3 more quarters so they will be able to claim that the country has recovered.

      Who knew that the government effectively has control of the GDP. Spend more and it goes up. Simple. BY DEFINITION, the government can control it. They could have controlled it earlier, but they didn’t want to. Why not, you ask? Answer: the elections aren’t for another year.

      But it will all be smoke and mirrors.

      Every dime of it will be borrowed from our children.

      They will live as serfs so that the Obamy Cabal can be re-elected.

  4. proreason

    Jobless claims drop “less than expected”.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....htly-week/

    “The Labor Department said Thursday its tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000. Analysts expected a steeper drop to 521,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters….

    Still, the four-week average of claims, which smoothes out volatility, fell for the eighth straight week to 526,250, its lowest level since early January. Claims are slowly declining as companies lay off fewer workers.”

    So let’s cipher:

    1. 530,000 people lost jobs last month.
    2. “Analysts expected a steeper drop to 521,000″.
    3. But by doing a four-week average, you can pretend the number is 526,250
    4. So claims are below what was expected

    Got it?

    Meanwhile:

    “The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, dropped sharply by 148,000 to 5.8 million, a steeper drop than analysts expected. The figures on continuing claims lag initial claims by a week.”

    So bottom line, the idiots in the msm see this as really good news. Kind of like pulling molars out with pliars is soooo much better than gettin rabies shots.

    Proreason’s analysis: Another 1 million people lost their jobs last month, when you add in the usual amount of people who have given up on ever working again.

  5. proreason

    Twitter from Jim Pethokoukis

    “@JimPethokoukis BananAmerica: Strip out Cash for Clunkers and economy would have grown by only 1.9 percent”

    So half of total “growth” was from the money-burning program

    More”
    “@JimPethokoukis Obama’s Potemkin Economy: Artificial economic growth from Cash for Clunkers, ghost stimulus job, fantasy healthcare savings”

    http://www.englishforums.com/E.....m/post.htm
    “Potemkin as in ‘Potemkin Village’ a false display for a head of state, to gain prestige.Potemkin was a general in the time of ‘Kitty the Great’. * Other uses: Potemkin Economy … an economy that seems prosperous, but is propped up by artificial means or constructs.”
    * Enron ran its own Potemkin Economy before its demise.

    From Pethokoukis’ blog

    “Indeed, during the first quarter of the last 10 economic recoveries, real GDP rose a far more impressive 5.8 percent on average. For instance, the first five quarters of the Reagan Boom coming out of the 1981-82 recession showed GDP growth of 8.1 percent, 9.3 percent, 8.1 percent, 8.5 percent, and 8.0 percent.”

  6. Imus guest this morning Chris Christie Republican candidate for Governor of New Jersey. Imus: I got tell you the truth Chris, I need you to win, it will make me look good.

    Chris Christie Republican Candidate for Governor of New Jerseys, tells Imus “I’m Going To Be A Big Fat Winner”

    http://youhavetobethistalltogo.....asing.html

    All Eyes on the New Jersey and Virginia, Governor Races November 3rd (5 days away) *litmus for how the 2010 elections will proceed?

  7. Chuckk

    Were the experts surprised at this stat?




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