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AP: Outlook For Economy Is Brightening

From the ‘damn the facts, full speed ahead’ Associated Press:

AP survey: Outlook for 2011 economy is brightening

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
January 27, 2011

WASHINGTON – Employers will hire more workers this year, and the economy will grow faster than envisioned three months ago, according to an Associated Press survey that found growing optimism among leading economists.

But unemployment will stay chronically high — nearly 9 percent by year’s end, the latest quarterly AP Economy Survey shows. A majority of economists say it will be 2016 or later before unemployment drops to a historically normal rate of around 5 percent.

So it doesn’t sound like employers will be hiring many more workers, after all. So why does the AP keep trying to get our hopes up?

Economists have become more confident 19 months after the worst recession since the Great Depression ended.

So the recession has been officially over for more than a year and a half? How hilarious — or rather, how pathetic.

Lower Social Security taxes and higher stock prices will embolden Americans to spend more and help power the economy, they say.

Naturally, extending the Bush tax cuts will have nothing to do with Americans spending more. It’s that 2% reduction in Social Security tax.

"People will finally recognize that an economic recovery is under way," said Lynn Reaser, a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. "This won’t be a recovery seen only by economists."

Just keep telling us that. Maybe someday we will believe it.

The gains this year will be enough to withstand the threats still clouding the economy, the AP survey found. A majority of the economists doubt, for example, that falling home prices and higher mortgage rates will pose a major risk to the economy in 2011.

Of course not. It’s not like falling home prices had anything to do with the recession in the first place.

The AP survey collected the views of 42 private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators. Among their forecasts:

• The economy will grow 3.2 percent this year, compared with the 2.7 percent they forecast in October. That would top last year’s estimated growth of less than 3 percent.

3.3% growth in the GDP was called a recession during the Bush years.

• Employers will create a net total of 2.2 million jobs. Three months ago, the economists predicted 1.6 million jobs would be added in 2011. Last year, employers added roughly 1.1 million.

So we are supposed to believe that twice as many jobs will be added this year as last year, but unemployment won’t go down? How does that work?

• Consumers will spend 3.2 percent more this year than last year. That’s stronger than the 2.5 percent growth the economists had forecast in October. And it’s nearly double the spending growth that’s estimated for 2010.

Lest we forget, spending was practically criminalized during the Bush administration.

• Inflation will be 1.8 percent this year, barely more than the 1.7 percent the economists forecast in the previous survey and up only slightly from 1.5 percent last year. The 1.8 percent forecast falls within the range of inflation the Federal Reserve thinks a healthy economy needs.

Does anybody believe that inflation was only 1.5% last year?

Among the reasons for the economists’ growing optimism: an extension of income-tax cuts, a cut in Social Security taxes for workers, easier access to loans, higher stock prices and a government that seems more sympathetic to the priorities of businesses

Finally, the AP grudgingly admits that the extension of the income tax cuts might have something to do with this purported ‘optimism.’ But notice there is still no mention of who initiated them originally (Bush), or who pushed them through last year (Republicans).

We can’t have such partisanship now.

This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, January 27th, 2011. Comments are currently closed.

10 Responses to “AP: Outlook For Economy Is Brightening”

  1. Georgfelis says:

    Good News: There’s a light at the end of the tunnel.
    Bad News: Its a train. High-Speed too.

  2. River0 says:

    This is a crock of effluvium. We’re technically bankrupt. The economy is being inflated like a balloon by Bernanke and the Fed; and it’s going to pop. Just as soon as it’s convenient for our adversaries to pull the plug, they will. The American dollar will collapse in value. The IMF will tell us what we have to do, just as they’ve done with dozens of other countries. Goodbye sovereignty.

  3. mr_bill says:

    When Reagan was President, it took a bit more than two years to dig the US out of the Carter Recession. nerobama is counting on this happening again. Hence the recent surge of lame-stream-media puff-pieces citing Reagan as nerobama’s new “role model” and all the promises of the economy rebounding this year (“Prosperity is just around the corner”).

    They [the liberals and their media accomplices] are hitching all their hopes to a Reagan-style recovery. The problem is that nerobama’s policies are 180 degrees opposite of Reagan’s. The damage done to the country by the last four years of the democrat-majority-Congress have done far too much damage. The chances of nerobama’s policies leading to a recovery are about as good as the chances of rain in the Atacama desert. 2012 cannot come soon enough.

  4. proreason says:

    Don’t forget that the fed is printing money at high-speed and that in addition, government spending counts in the “gnp”.

    For a government with negative integrity, there are many devices they can use to scam the statistics, even without the normal cheating for political purposes.

  5. Rusty Shackleford says:

    “…historically normal rate of around 5 percent.”

    Which, of course, they vilified Bush for. The more the AP and other “news” agencies run cover for this, the less the American people will buy into it. There will always be the drooling sycophants but the truth is the truth and when people are out of work for so long and you keep telling them “it’s a recovery”, well, they just don’t agree. We are in the throes of what happened in the 1930’s with rising prices, no jobs and little hope to change that. When WWII came along, it jump-started the economy to a degree and set the stage for the US to be a super-power for many decades to come. The 1950’s saw technical innovation on a scale never before imagined. But now we’ve squandered our wealth, dumbed down our kids, made them all “victims” and whiny little panty-wastes and all in the name of “self-esteem”. False self-esteem that comes from being told you’re great when in fact you’re anything but; Much like this president. And he needs to be told to his face that he sucks out loud; That he’s a liar and a cheater. That he’s been handed everything in his whole life due to one “special program” or another. I’ve known guys like him all my life and they are USELESS except with their deeply embedded anger they set out to purposely destroy that which they themselves cannot have.

  6. tranquil.night says:

    We knew it was only a matter of time before stock prices became cited as evidence prosperity is just around the corner. It’s called Bernanke’s Bubble, it isn’t real but directly tied to the bank’s free money from QE2, and this bad medicine is purposefully designed to send the false indicator to the uninformed public that the economy’s vitals are rebounding and healthy when they’re not.

    Like little Barry said: “The rules have changed” since he came to power. The game has been rigged.

  7. JohnMG says:

    …..”Does anybody believe that inflation was only 1.5% last year?…….”

    It must have been since I didn’t get a COLA increase in my Social Security in either of the last two years. [sarc]

    Seriously, pro is right. If we have no inflation, explain to me why filling the tank on my diesel pick-up yesterday cost me $110.95. Obama & Co. are pulling these numbers out of their collective asses.

    I’d much prefer they pulled their heads out first. Maybe then the rest of this stuff would take care of itself. Reagan showed everyone that free markets work.

    • proreason says:

      There’s no question inflation has heated up. Food is an another obvious example.

      I haven’t analyzed the cpi stats, but they obviously contain a substantial housing component. Mortgage rates were manipulated to new lows last year, and housing values continued to fall. I don’t doubt for a second that those components can easily be manipulated to overcome all of the others that are going up. Not saying that is absolutely the reason, just that it is an obvious possibility.

      Of course, artificially low housing costs don’t help anyone who has paid off a house, or who didn’t refinance for whatever reason…kinda like, you know, senior citizens in general.

      One thing I do know for certain is that inflation for older people is higher than for other age groups for many reasons. Housing is one. Another is that products with rapidly falling costs are the ones LEAST likely to be used by seniors: ipads, iphones, calling plans, plasma tv’s. Doesn’t matter if they fall from $2,000 to $1,000 in a couple of years, seniors couldn’t afford them in the first place. Yet when electonics fall in price, that holds the official cpi down.

      The items that go up all the time are the ones people on fixed income have to buy: i.e., gasoline, utilities, food.

      This is just one aspect of the marxists war on senior citizens. I’m surprised seniors aren’t demonized yet. They will be soon. But there is plenty of indirect demonization; medicare gutted, Walmart regularly attacked, death panels, even plenty of people saying that seniors “owe” it to future generations to die.

    • Liberals Demise says:

      Nor will you see a COLA next year. Maybe even the next!!
      dingleBarry has his fingers in the leaking dike….and what’s
      on the other side? We are…… with our noses sticking out of the
      water.
      “I KID YOU NOT!!”

  8. Reality Bytes says:

    The US economy is in what I call “The Titanic Effect”.

    What keeps it afloat, its hull, is the “full faith & credit” of its free enterprise & treasury. Well the hull has been ruptured & like an ice tray we are sinking one sector after another.

    In 2008, the bow went under while those who survived rushed to what was left was raised higher by – what else – more flooding.

    Somewhere around the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2010, the hull’s integrity split righting the remainder of the ship whereupon those there cheered, “We’re Saved!”, only to feel the tug of the sunken hull below increasingly to pull them under.

    They called the Titanic “unsinkable.” Today, we say, “To Be to Fail.” We’re kidding ourselves. While “In God We Trust” is challenged in the courts, we have lost our way, lulled by political solutions. There are none. Only a dynamic shift back to the fundamentals that made America’s treasury, free enterprise & private sector the greatest force for good in the world will restore America.

    And, yes, it does start with “In God We Trust.”


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