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AP Poll Oversamples Democrats By 13 Points

From a completely shameless Associated Press:

AP-GfK Poll: Obama job approval numbers back up above 50 percent, but race with Romney still tight


WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are feeling markedly better about the country’s future and about Barack Obama’s job performance, but the president’s re-election race against Republican Mitt Romney remains a neck-and-neck proposition as Election Day creeps ever closer, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

Buoyed by good mojo coming out of last month’s national political conventions, Obama’s approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May, and the share of Americans who think the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level since just after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

Romney, his campaign knocked off-stride in recent weeks, has lost his pre-convention edge on the top issue of the campaign – the economy.

And never mind that the AP has oversampled Democrats in this poll by a laughable 13% (a pdf file). For total voters they polled: Dem/Rep/Ind = 50%/37%/7%. (The Independents number is low because the poll lumps Independent leaners with Dems and Republicans.)

For registered voters they polled Dem/Rep/Ind = 48%/38%/7%. And for likely voters, they polled Dem/Rep/Ind = 48%/44%/5%. Notice that it is only the likely voters that is even close to reality. (In fact, Republicans should be being oversampled by 4%.)

And among likely voters the race is tied, as the AP admits in passing:

The poll results vividly underscore the importance that turnout will play in determining the victor in Campaign 2012: Among all adults, Obama has a commanding lead, favored by 52 percent of Americans to just 37 percent for Romney. Yet among those most likely to vote, the race is drum tight.

Obama is supported by 47 percent of likely voters and Romney by 46 percent, promising an all-out fight to the finish by the two campaigns to gin up enthusiasm among core supporters and dominate get-out-the-vote operations…

So despite everything else the AP says in this 32 paragraphs long, 1,200 word article which claims an Obama uptick in every category, the race is actually tied among the only reliable group of people to get polled.

Romney lost his pre-convention edge on the economy as his campaign was distracted by criticism of his hasty response to the Obama administration’s handling of the eruption of violence in Egypt and Libya last week and his failure to mention the war in Afghanistan or thank the troops in his prime-time convention speech.

All of which is total nonsense.

The two candidates run about even in the poll on who would best handle the economy or the federal budget deficit, but Obama has narrow advantages on protecting the country, social issues and health care…

"Protecting the country"? Really? And this poll was conducted September 13-17, 2012?

But once again the news media proves that their so-called polls are about as honest as their so-called fact checks.

This article was posted by Steve on Wednesday, September 19th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

One Response to “AP Poll Oversamples Democrats By 13 Points”

  1. Anonymoose says:

    The media will always spin the race as tight; to insure interest, and as in favor of the Democrats to hopefully sway voters. No truth is allowed.

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