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BBC: So Where’s The Global Warming?

From BBC News:

A surfer walks in from the ocean as a fog rolls in at Rockaway Beach in New York, October 4, 2009.

What happened to global warming?

By Paul Hudson
Climate correspondent, BBC News

Friday, 9 October 2009

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

So what on Earth is going on?

Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man’s influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?

During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.

Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth’s warmth comes from the Sun.

But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

The scientists’ main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can’t have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.

What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth’s great heat stores.

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."

So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.

They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.

But those scientists who are equally passionate about man’s influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.

The UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.

In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures – all of which are accounted for by its models.

In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.

What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.

To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.

Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world’s top climate modellers.

But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

So what can we expect in the next few years?

Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.

It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).

Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.

One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.

Of course the BBC felt obligated to pretend that the ‘Warmers’ have an answer for this. But they don’t.

In fact, even though they have figured in the sun and oceans as factors all along, they are disproved by this indisputable fact:

For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

The “Warmers” should not be deciding policy for our country or the rest of the world.

If anything, they should be in jail.

Activists hold giant effigies of the leaders of the G8 nations during a demonstration against global warming outside the headquarters of the United Nations office in Bangkok on October 5.

Indeed, we sometimes wonder if there isn’t some other motivation at work here.

This article was posted by Steve on Saturday, October 10th, 2009. Comments are currently closed.

12 Responses to “BBC: So Where’s The Global Warming?”

  1. proreason says:

    We are the laughing stock of future generations.

    • VMAN says:

      I don’t know Pro it’s been pretty hot down here in the south this year. But then it’s been pretty cool in the north. The sun could be heating up or the oceans cooling down or maybe wombat’s are flying upside down oh wait wombats don’t fly. but then maybe… I’m soooo confused.

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Hot in the South? I don’t know which part of the South you live in, but we barely had a Summer! I’m serious. My fescue didn’t even die out!

      I bet a global warmer that the high temp in October would not exceed 85 degrees. I’ve been right so far, and I am certain to win. It has been routine to have highs in the nineties well into October for as long as I can remember…

    • VMAN says:

      Hi Colonel. That was just a feeble stab at humor. It has been unseasonably hot down here in Florida. We’ve had a few record temps.

    • Colonel1961 says:

      No problem, VMAN. I was merely astonished that it was such a cool Summer and everyone else I know in the South had the same impression. Of course, that’s like the New Yorker query of ‘How did Richard Nixon win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him?’ lol

      p.s. And now I hear that Lindsey Graham has bought into the AGW bull feathers? Please tell me I’m wrong…

  2. bullforever says:

    I hate to reference Zietgeist, the Movie, because that Liberal schill LaRouch was obviously behind it, however, maybe that is more telling than one woudl have initially suspected…a confession in disguise?

    So here goes: In the beginning, man invented religion as a way to gain power over the masses. Later, once it was discovered that power also equalled wealth, powerful men invented the banking systems. Once technology progressed to the point that various religions and bankingg systems began to interact, and even combine, men of power created organized governments that were “different” from traditional monarchies and dictatorships…really, what it all boils down to is power and wealth. Human nature is such that the vast majority of people place an inexplicably high value on a sense of belonging…and they will give up thier rights, their own power as individuals, and thier own wealth for the sake of feelingg like the belong to “something.” For that matter, a majority of people will even fight to the death if need be in order to support what ever it is that they “belong” to…this is a rationaliztion (another part of human nature that men of power depend upon).

    So now that we have the high level summary of Zietgeist (if you take out the liberal spin, the movie is pretty on the mark) lets consider why the Liberal (rather socialist) machine has glommed on to this global warming thing….I think you have to go all the way back to the beginning of time…Religion. Liberals have none. So, as a Liberal of power, you can not control the masses, nor gain thier support, unless you provide them with a “religion” of sorts that they can believe in, rally behind, and which they can relate to in a time frame that extends beyond the end of thier own lives….whether you beleive in a god or not, everyone of us humans wonders daily what will happen after we are gone, and deep down, all of us want to believe that there is something better than that in which we exist today. Global Warming is in essence, the “Hell” of Chistians, the “Purgatory” of Jews, the “reincarnation as an earthworm” of the Hindus…..

    Government does not replace religion, it is just a tool of the powerful. Money does not either, as it in actuality, a part of the end to which the means strive.

    And yes, I have had two gin and tonics upon the writing of this! :-)

    • proreason says:

      Interesting thoughts, bull.

    • bullforever says:

      I could have simply said, that the greem movement is the new religion of the left, but everyone here already knows that. just tossing out ideas…I already told Steve that I run a charity that focusses on an opposite (and correct) approach to the “green movement.” Any time the government takes a position, you can bet that a 180 degree position is the correct one. http://www.common-defense.org

  3. canary says:

    bullforever, I disagree that religion is what has led to the global warming myth. Because the greenies I know aren’t very religious. Religious people, understand God created the earth, and he can replenish and heal problems on this earth. Miracles happen. A wound healing is a miracle if you think about. You can cut a piece of paper but it won’t grow back together. God cares about animals and sparrows, but he cares more about human beings. And if religious people believe in getting rich as their priority then that does not come from God. Religion has been good for America, as far as following the 10 commandments, trying to please God, having a conscious, determining right from wrong. There are disbelievers that are good righteous people. And God rewards the righteous no matter what religion. There are very religious people that are really wolves. No one is perfect, and I just don’t think we have control over the weather. My
    liberal greenie socialist neighbor really put the fear in my son a few years ago, that global warming is going to cause us to all burn up. I told him more likely, it will come from bombs. See, no one else should use bug killer, but she does it herself. She also used Round-up that kills anything green, while complaining of neighbors using fertilizer that’s not organic.

    • bullforever says:

      Canary,

      I appreciate your comments. I was not trying to say that religion is the “cause” of the global warming movement. I beleive that a lack of religious belief is why the greenie weenies have found as much success as they have.

      People who desire more power will use any means neccessary, and humans, by nature, are wired with a need to believe in something greater than they are. If there is a lack of relgion within a group of people, they they will be inclined to rally behind something else that gives them a sense of belonging to something greater than they are.

    • canary says:

      bull4ever. oh, sorry I misunderstood you. The bible talks so much about the Lord replenishing and renewal of the land and the waters, protecting us from plagues. Even in the days where much of the earth will be destroyed, God will renew it better than ever.

      I think the scientists keep this b.s. up to get more money and grants. My greenie neighbor who evoluted from a monkey (her opinion) complained we had too many trees that their root systems soak up to much water that cools the earth. ‘sign.’

  4. Rusty Shackleford says:

    But, a river has overflowed in India….thus, the sky is falling.

    India’s Floods Reveal Climate Change Specter

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20091011/wl_time/08599192959000

    By MRIDU KHULLAR / NEW DELHI Mridu Khullar / New Delhi – Sun Oct 11, 1:10 am ET

    Indian farmers had been praying for rain after the weakest monsoon season in 40 years had left their crops stricken by drought. But when the rains finally came, forceful and incessant at six times their normal levels, they left behind the worst floods southern India had seen in more than a century.

    Weather officials blamed the heavy rains in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh on a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. So far, over 250 people have died in flooding made worse when officials were forced to open dams for fear they might burst. Some 1,500 relief camps have been set up for the estimated 2.5 million people who were displaced as the raging water destroyed entire villages, washing away roads, bridges, crops and livestock. (See pictures of India’s 2008 floods.)

    Although flooding has recently become commonplace in India

    A Google search turned up 5,130,000 hits on the words “India, Floods” And over 13 million hits when I add the word, “history”. One curious timeline in the bunch starts at 1341 talking about a huge flood and then mysteriously leaps 613 years ahead to 1954. AM I to believe that no floods occurred during that period? Would that be “The Great Indian Dustbowl” that everyone talks about? (sarc)

    – in 2008, over 3 million people were displaced when the Kosi river in Bihar burst its banks – but this year’s deluge came as a shock because if followed a protracted drought, and a monsoon season branded a dud by the authorities. To experts who’ve tracked the effects of climate change, however, the flooding came as no surprise.

    So sure were they that they were able to get out the word and only 3 million were displaced. (also sarc)

    In its fourth assessment report in 2007, the Inter- Government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that more extreme droughts, floods, and storms, would become commonplace in the future, and that these intense weather conditions would follow in close succession to each other, often in the same areas.

    Who knew? And note the “it’s gonna get a lot worse, people” mantra from the “authorities”.

    The volatile weather patterns predicted by the IPCC are already beginning to show in India. The Doni river, a 93-mile stretch of water in north Karnataka has come to be known as “the Yellow River of Bijapur,” after China’s Hwang Ho. While the Chinese river is infamous for its sudden changes in course, the Indian version, whose water many consider no longer fit for human consumption, is gaining notoriety for its unpredictable nature – flash floods one day, barely a trickle the next. “We need to find a way of storing the excess water and using it through the rest of the year,” says A.K. Bajaj, Chairman of India’s Central Water Commission. (Read “India’s Floods: a Manmade Disaster?”)

    Which, by the way, has been a problem for India for centuries.

    So take heart, Globalclimatewarmingchange has moved to India…..just like all the good customer service jobs.


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