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Blacks, Hispanics, Unions Vital To Dems

This (typically long and verbose) New York Times article actually makes some stunning admissions, albeit unintentionally:

The Effects of Union Membership on Democratic Voting

By NATE SILVER
February 26, 2011

How important are labor unions to the Democratic Party? …

Fortunately, there is very good data that we can use that can help to isolate the effect of different types of demographic variables. This data set is the National Annenberg Election Survey, which conducted interviews with tens of thousands of adults over the course of 2008…

The chart [above] illustrates the effect of 23 different demographic variables on one’s intended presidential vote. The size of the bars corresponds to the impact that the variable had on the respondent’s likelihood of voting for Barack Obama. Blue, left-leaning bars indicate that the demographic variables made the respondent more likely to vote for Mr. Obama; red, right-leaning bars meant it predicted higher levels of voting for Mr. McCain…

As you can see, by far the most important demographic variable was being African-American. It overwhelms everything else: for instance, even if every other demographic characteristic of the respondent tended to predict a Republican vote, the voter was nevertheless 81 percent likely to vote for Mr. Obama provided that they were black, according to the model.

And yet those who oppose Mr. Obama are the ones who are called racist.

The next-most important demographic characteristics, after being African-American, were two others related to race, two others related to religion — and two related to union membership

Or, to translate from ‘Times-speak,’ the next two most important factors for voting for Mr. Obama after being black – are being Hispanic or belonging to a union.

Which goes a long way towards explaining why Mr. Obama’s top agenda items are: 1) income redistribution (aka ‘reparations’), including ‘healthcare reform’; 2) ‘amnesty’ for illegal aliens, including the refusal to enforce our immigration laws – and preventing any local authorities from doing so; and 3) supporting the unions through bailouts (the takeover of GM and Chrysler, and the stimulus money for union jobs), as well as pushing for ‘Card Check.’

If we assume that the our analysis of the Annenberg data was correct as to the magnitude of the effect of union affiliation, but that the exit poll was correct as to the share of union voters in the actual electorate, then the net effect on Mr. Obama’s vote was 2.4 percentage points.

Also, our study is measured in terms of the marginal effect on Mr. Obama’s vote. But the way that we have designed the analysis, any votes that did not go to Mr. Obama instead went to Senator John McCain. Therefore, the impact on the margin between the two candidates was twice as large: not 2.4 points, but 4.8 points.

This is fairly meaningful. Of the last 10 elections in which the Democratic candidate won the popular vote (counting 2000, when Al Gore lost in the Electoral College), he did so by 4.8 points or fewer on 4 occasions (2000, 1976, 1960, 1948). So, while the impact of union voting is not gigantic in the abstract, it has the potential to sway quite a few presidential elections, since presidential elections are usually fairly close

The Times article does not mention this, but the importance of the union vote would seem to be undeniable when you compare the map of the right to work states versus forced unionization states to the outcome of the last Presidential elections:

So it must be pretty clear to the Democrat Party fathers that these union votes a pivotal. And certainly Mr. Obama has done his level best to buy them.

Lest we forget, the money from the ‘stimulus’ not only bailed out the public sector unions, but Mr. Obama also made sure that the money for the so-called ‘shovel ready jobs’ and ‘green jobs,’ only went to union workers.

And that is why Mr. Obama is willing now to go to the mat to support the unions in Wisconsin and in other states, and more importantly in Washington, DC. And the state budgets and the federal deficit and our country’s economy be damned.

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, March 1st, 2011. Comments are currently closed.

3 Responses to “Blacks, Hispanics, Unions Vital To Dems”

  1. BannedbytheTaliban says:

    So if I read the graph at the top correctly, red would be the demographic who the government takes money from and blue would the demographic to whom the government gives the others’ money.

  2. Liberals Demise says:

    Pardon me but a “HUGE” piece of their democrapic voting block
    is clearly obscured on their part……..the “ILLEGAL” vote.
    But they would never fudge us on that, would they?

  3. canary says:

    Obama in his 2006 book says unions always get an answer from him, and his success comes from blacks, mexicans & MUSLISMs who he said he would take sides with if the winds became ugly against them.


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