« | »

CBO: Senate Bill Reduces Deficit $118B

From the Congressional Budget Office’s Director’s Blog:


Estimate of the Budgetary Effects of the Senate-Passed Health Bill

March 11, 2010

CBO has just released an estimate of the budgetary effects of the health bill, H.R. 3590, that passed the Senate on December 24. Today’s estimate differs from the estimate for a slightly earlier version of the legislation that we released on December 19 in that it encompasses all of the amendments that were adopted by the Senate, reflects a revised assumption about its enactment date, and incorporates some technical revisions. We and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) prepared this updated estimate in preparation for further consideration of health care legislation. However, the changes we have made do not result in an estimate that differs substantially from the earlier one.

CBO and JCT now estimate that, on balance, the direct (mandatory) spending and revenue effects of enacting H.R. 3590 as passed by the Senate would yield a net reduction in federal deficits of $118 billion over the 2010–2019 period. (Direct spending—as distinguished from discretionary spending—is spending that stems from legislation other than appropriation acts.)  In our earlier estimate, the budgetary impact was a net reduction in deficits of $132 billion.

The gross cost of the proposed expansions in insurance coverage over those 10 years is now projected to be $875 billion, reflecting subsidies provided through insurance exchanges, increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers. Those costs are partly offset by revenues from an excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and net savings from other coverage-related sources, leaving a net cost of $624 billion for the coverage provisions. Other provisions affecting direct spending save $478 billion, on net—mostly in Medicare—and other provisions affecting revenues reduce the deficit by $264 billion, on net. Thus, the net effect on deficits of the bill as a whole equals $624 billion less $478 billion less $264 billion, or a reduction of $118 billion over the 2010-2019 period. In total, CBO and JCT estimate that the legislation would increase outlays by $355 billion and increase revenues by $473 billion between 2010 and 2019.

CBO has not completed an estimate of all of the discretionary costs that would be associated with the legislation. Those costs would depend on future appropriations and are not included in today’s estimate of the direct spending and revenue effects of the bill. As indicated in CBO’s earlier estimate, such costs would probably include an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion over 10 years for administrative costs of the Internal Revenue Service and at least a similar amount for expenses of the Department of Health and Human Services. CBO has also identified at least $50 billion in specified and estimated authorizations of future discretionary spending for a number of grant programs and other provisions of the legislation; whether some or all of those costs would be incurred would depend on future appropriation legislation.

Other elements of the analysis that CBO and JCT provided on December 19 have not changed significantly:

* Although CBO and JCT have not updated their estimates of the likely impact of the legislation on health insurance premiums, that impact would probably be quite similar to the one estimated for an earlier version of the legislation.

* CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the decade after 2019 relative to those projected under current law—with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP. That judgment is unchanged from CBO’s previous assessment, and the imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBO’s 10-year budget estimates.

* Under the legislation, federal outlays for health care would increase during the 2010–2019 period, as would the federal budgetary commitment to health care (a term that CBO discussed earlier). CBO now estimates that the federal commitment would increase by about $210 billion over that period, rather than by $200 billion as previously estimated. In subsequent years, however, the effects of the legislation that would tend to decrease the federal budgetary commitment to health care would grow faster than those that would increase it. As a result, CBO expects that the legislation would generate a reduction in the federal budgetary commitment to health care during the decade following 2019; that judgment is unchanged from CBO’s previous assessment.

Note that this is another estimate of the already passed Senate bill, not the ‘reconciliation bill,’ which is currently being put together in the House.

Of course this CBO estimate is based upon numerous cheats and shams. Such as front-loading the taxes for four years before there are any ‘healthcare reform’ benefits.

Also, Congress has off-loaded many costs to Medicare and Medicaid, such as the $250 billion so-called “Doctor Fix.”

The estimate also includes tax increases (such as the tax on ‘Cadillac’ health insurance plans) and Medicare cuts that will probably never come to fruition.

But all of these shenanigans are necessary because if the Senate bill does not reduce the deficit it would have to be ‘sun-downed’ after ten years.

This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, March 11th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

7 Responses to “CBO: Senate Bill Reduces Deficit $118B”

  1. Right of the People says:

    Creative accounting by any means. It’s like your wife saying, I went shoe shopping today, I spent $280.00 on these five pair of shoes but I saved $40.00 so I saved us money.

  2. proreason says:

    The Marxists con everything. It’s their life.

    But nobody believes this bogus shit.

  3. GetBackJack says:

    They can reduce their ‘budget’ by whatever cost-estimate they’re using for me and mine.

    Not a chance in hell they’ll ever see me in a Marxist hospital or doctor’s office.

  4. bill says:

    That’s half of the deficit for the month of February 2010. Big deal.

    Of course that also depends if they aren’t lying … which they are.

  5. Reality Bytes says:

    When you tax 10 for 10 of those years but don’t kick the “care” in for six years out then of course it reduces the deficit (though I doubt it will even do that). But riddle me this batman, what is the over under for years 11 through 20?

  6. Mithrandir says:

    Like I have said before: “Nothing these people say is believable—period.”

    What evidence does any government official have that ANYTHING they do is within a budget? Or that it operates within the spirit or letter of the law?

    I simply cannot believe that all those people who make high salaries in the medical profession, will take a 50% pay-cut to save health care. That’s not how it works. Prices stay the same, taxes go up to cover it. These are Democrats we are talking about….they have never cut anything, but only know how to increase taxes.

  7. Tater Salad says:

    This letter appeared in the Indianapolis Star (which is owned by the same people who own the Arizona Republic ) and was sent to a very popular Indiana Senator. This just goes to show everyone what pressure these Democrats are currently under, so continue to let them know how you feel about the healthcare bill.
    Bill Stough

    Shock to NBC This morning.

    An Indianapolis doctor’s letter to Sen. Bayh about the Bill (Note: Dr. Stephen E. Fraser, MD practices as an anesthesiologist in Indianapolis, IN ) Here is a letter I sent to Senator Bayh.. Feel free to copy it and send it around to all other representatives. — Stephen Fraser

    Senator Bayh,

    As a practicing physician I have major concerns with the health care bill before Congress. I actually have read the bill and am shocked by the brazenness of the government’s proposed involvement in the patient-physician relationship. The very idea that the government will dictate and ration patient care is dangerous and certainly not helpful in designing a health care system that works for all. Every physician I work with agrees that we need to fix our health care system, but the proposed bills currently making their way through congress will be a disaster if passed.

    I ask you respectfully and as a patriotic American to look at the following troubling lines that I have read in the bill. You cannot possibly believe that these proposals are in the best interests of the country and our fellow citizens.

    Page 22 of the HC Bill: Mandates that the Govt will audit books of all employers that self-insure!!

    Page 30 Sec 123 of HC bill: THERE WILL BE A GOVT COMMITTEE that decides what treatments/benefits you get.

    Page 29 lines 4-16 in the HC bill: YOUR HEALTH CARE IS RATIONED!!!

    Page 42 of HC Bill: The Health Choices Commissioner will choose your HC benefits for you. You have no choice!

    Page 50 Section 152 in HC bill: HC will be provided to ALL non-US citizens, illegal or otherwise.

    Page 58 HC Bill: Govt will have real-time access to individuals’ finances & a ‘National ID Health card’ will be issued! (Papers please!)

    Page 59 HC Bill lines 21-24: Govt will have direct access to your bank accounts for elective funds transfer. (Time for more cash and carry)

    Page 65 Sec 164: Is a payoff subsidized plan for retirees and their families in unions & community organizations: (ACORN).

    Page 84 Sec 203 HC bill: Govt mandates ALL benefit packages for private HC plans in the ‘Exchange.’

    Page 85 Line 7 HC Bill: Specifications of Benefit Levels for Plans — The Govt will ration your health care!

    Page 91 Lines 4-7 HC Bill: Govt mandates linguistic appropriate services. (Translation: illegal aliens.)

    Page 95 HC Bill Lines 8-18: The Govt will use groups (i.e. ACORN & Americorps to sign up individuals for Govt HC plan.

    Page 85 Line 7 HC Bill: Specifications of Benefit Levels for Plans. (AARP members – your health care WILL be rationed!)
    Page 102 Lines 12-18 HC Bill: Medicaid eligible individuals will be automatically enrolled in Medicaid. (No choice.)

    Page 12 4 lines 24-25 HC: No company can sue GOVT on price fixing. No “judicial review” against Govt monopoly.

    Page 127 Lines 1-16 HC Bill: Doctors/ American Medical Association – The Govt will tell YOU what salary you can make.

    Page 145 Line 15-17: An Employer MUST auto-enroll employees into public option plan. (NO choice!)

    Page 126 Lines 22-25: Employers MUST pay for HC for part-time employees ANDtheir families. (Employees shouldn’t get excited about this as employers will be forced to reduce its work force, benefits, and wages/salaries to cover such a huge expense.)

    Page 149 Lines 16-24: ANY Employer with payroll 401k & above who does not provide public option will pay 8% tax on all payroll! (See the last comment in parenthesis.)
    Page 150 Lines 9-13: A business with payroll between $251K & $401K who doesn’t provide public option will pay 2-6% tax on all payroll.

    Page 167 Lines 18-23: ANY individual who doesn’t have acceptable HC according to Govt will be taxed 2.5% of income.

    Page 170 Lines 1-3 HC Bill: Any NONRESIDENT Alien is exempt from individual taxes. (Americans will pay.) (Like always)

    Page 195 HC Bill: Officers & employees of the GOVT HC Admin.. will have access to ALL Americans’ finances and personal records. (I guess so they can ‘deduct’ their fees)

    Page 203 Line 14-15 HC: “The tax imposed under this section shall not be treated as tax.” (Yes, it really says that!) ( a ‘fee’ instead)
    Page 239 Line 14-24 HC Bill: Govt will reduce physician services for Medicaid Seniors. (Low-income and the poor are affected.)

    Page 241 Line 6-8 HC Bill: Doctors: It doesn’t matter what specialty you have trained yourself in — you will all be paid the same! (Just TRY to tell me that’s not Socialism!)

    Page 253 Line 10-18: The Govt sets the value of a doctor’s time, profession, judgment, etc. (Literally– the value of humans.)

    Page 265 Sec 1131: The Govt mandates and controls productivity for “private” HC industries.

    Page 268 Sec 1141: The federal Govt regulates the rental and purchase of power driven wheelchairs.

    Page 272 SEC. 1145: TREATMENT OF CERTAIN CANCER HOSPITALS – Cancer patients – welcome to rationing!

    Page 280 Sec 1151: The Govt will penalize hospitals for whatever the Govt deems preventable (i.e…re-admissions).

    Page 298 Lines 9-11: Doctors: If you treat a patient during initial admission that results in a re-admission — the Govt will penalize you.

    Page 317 L 13-20: PROHIBITION on ownership/investment. (The Govt tells doctors what and how much they can own!)

    Page 317-318 lines 21-25, 1-3: PROHIBITION on expansion. (The Govt is mandating that hospitals cannot expand.)
    Page 321 2-13: Hospitals have the opportunity to apply for exception BUT community input is required. (Can you say ACORN?)

    Page 335 L 16-25 Pg 336-339: The Govt mandates establishment of=2 outcome-based measures. (HC the way they want — rationing.)
    Page 341 Lines 3-9: The Govt has authority to disqualify Medicare Advance Plans, HMOs, etc. (Forcing people into the Govt plan)

    Page 354 Sec 1177: The Govt will RESTRICT enrollment of ‘special needs people!’ Unbelievable!

    Page 379 Sec 1191: The Govt creates more bureaucracy via a “Tele-Health Advisory Committee.” (Can you say HC by phone?)

    Page 425 Lines 4-12: The Govt mandates “Advance-Care Planning Consult.” (Think senior citizens end-of-life patients.)

    Page 425 Lines 17-19: The Govt will instruct and consult regarding living wills, durable powers of attorney, etc. (And it’s mandatory!)
    Page 425 Lines 22-25, 426 Lines 1-3: The Govt provides an “approved” list of end-of-life resources; guiding you in death. (Also called ‘assisted suicide.’)(Sounds like Soylent Green to me.)

    Page 427 Lines 15-24: The Govt mandates a program for orders on “end-of-life.” (The Govt has a say in how your life ends!)

    Page 429 Lines 1-9: An “advanced-care planning consultant” will be used frequently as a patient’s health deteriorates.

    Page 429 Lines 10-12: An “advanced care consultation” may include an ORDER for end-of-life plans.. (AN ORDER TO DIE FROM THE GOVERNMENT?!?)

    Page 429 Lines 13-25: The GOVT will specify which doctors can write an end-of-life order.. (I wouldn’t want to stand before God after getting paid for THAT job!)

    Page 430 Lines 11-15: The Govt will decide what level of treatment you will have at end-of-life! (Again — no choice!)

    Page 469: Community-Based Home Medical Services = Non-Profit Organizations. (Hello? ACORN Medical Services here!?!)

    Page 489 Sec 1308: The Govt will cover marriage and family therapy. (Which means Govt will insert itself into your marriage even.)

    Page 494-498: Govt will cover Mental Health Services including defining, creating, and rationing those services.

    Senator, I guarantee that I personally will do everything possible to inform patients and my fellow physicians about the dangers of the proposed bills you and your colleagues are debating.

    Furthermore, if you vote for a bill that enforces socialized medicine on the country and destroys the doctor-patient relationship, I will do everything in my power to make sure you lose your job in the next election.

    Respectfully,

    Stephen E. Fraser, MD

    Dear Reader,

    I urge you to use the power that you were born with (and the power that may soon be taken away) and circulate this email to as many people as you can reach. The Power of the People can stop this from happening to us, our parents, our grandparents, our children, and to following generations


« Front Page | To Top
« | »