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CBS (Dems +9) Says There Is No Polling Bias

From Sunday’s edition of the Columbus Dispatch:

Ohio Newspaper Poll | Economy: job one

By Darrel Rowland | Sunday September 23, 2012

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points — 51 percent to 46 percent — among likely voters in the first Dispatch/Ohio Newspaper Organization poll of the 2012 election season.

That 5-point margin matches Obama’s advantage when survey participants were asked which candidate would do the best job of improving economic conditions in Ohio…

And this Dispatch poll has a margin of error of 3.3%.

Meanwhile, a the CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac poll taken at the same time claimed that Obama leads Romney in Ohio by 10%, which is twice what the Dispatch poll found.

For the record, even though the CBS/Times poll said that the party affiliation was "not available" for Ohio, we tracked down the numbers at the Quinnipiac University website.

It turns out that the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll oversampled by 9%. (Dems/Rep/Independents = 35/26/35%.) What a shock, huh?

But with the election more than six weeks away — and four debates, numerous candidate visits and tens of millions of dollars’ worth of ads targeting Ohioans still on their way — Rademacher predicted that “voters may be in for a wild ride this fall.” …

That’s not what the rest of the news media is telling us. They are saying Obama has sewn up Ohio, and therefore the election is over.

Meanwhile, we have this from the editors of the Tampa Bay Times:

Obama leading Romney by 9 in Fla? No way

Tampa Bay Staff | SEPTEMBER 26, 2012

The latest New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac Poll shows Barack Obama trouncing Mitt Romney by 9 percentage points – 53 percent to 44. But is there a single objective political professional in Florida who actually believes Obama is leading by 9 points? In Florida?! …

After all, that would mean that Obama will win Florida by more than three times the percentage he won in 2008. (Obama won Florida by 2.5%.) — Are we really supposed to believe the people of Florida love Obama so much more now than they did in 2008?

So this brings us back to a complaint we’ve heard constantly from Florida political consultants on both sides of the aisle: Too many polls are based on an assumed electorate that has zero chance of occuring [sic] and therefore give a flawed view of the political landscape…

Current voter registration in Florida is roughly 40 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican and the rest independent or third party. In 2008 – likely a best case scenario for Democrats – the electorate was 42 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and 19 percent other – a three point Democratic advantage. In 2004 – a cycle Barack Obama presumably will beat this year – the electorate was 42 percent Democrat, 41 percent Republican, and 17 percent other.

They point out that by every measure, party registration, exit polls from 2004 and 2008, the Democrat advantage in Florida is only somewhere between 1% and 4%. With 3% being the turnout advantage when Obama won in 2008.

Now look at the partisan breakdown in some recent Florida polls:

Quinnipiac (Obama +9): 36 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, 33 percent independent/other.

So the Quinnipiac poll oversampled Democrats by 9%, which is three times the Democrat’s advantage (3%) when Obama won in 2008.

PPP Poll (Obama +4): 44 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, 20 percent independent.
Washington Post (Obama +4): 35 percent Democrat, 25 percent Republican, 32 percent independent.
Purple Strategies (Romney +1) 37 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 24 percent independent.
Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon (Obama +1): 44 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 17 percent independent…

So the Washington Post’s poll, which was also trumpeted yesterday, oversampled Democrats in Florida by 10%. Which is even more than three times the Democrat advantage in 2008. But even then he only has a 4% lead.

It may be instructive that Quinnipiac and the Washington Post find more Florida voters today describing themselves as independents than Republicans. But Key West will freeze over before one in three voters in November is an independent — or that Obama wins Florida by 9 percentage points…

This is the other way the media rigs their polls, by gaming the number of ‘Independents.’

Meanwhile, we have this from the company with the most egg on its face, CBS News:

Are polls "biased" to boost Obama?

By Lucy Madison | Wed September 26, 2012

(CBS News) On the heels of several new polls showing President Obama opening up big leads over Mitt Romney in key battleground states, some Republicans are accusing pollsters of a Democratic bias — and suggesting that the recent poll numbers don’t tell the real story…

Tuesday, a new Washington Post poll showed Mr. Obama leading Romney by 8 points in Ohio…. A new battleground poll from CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac out Wednesday shows Mr. Obama with a 10-point advantage in the state… If accurate, these numbers signal trouble for Romney in finding a path to 270 electoral votes.

In recent days, however, Romney officials and other conservatives have cast doubt on the polls, saying the polling models favor Democratic candidates. The Romney camp has also suggested that internal surveys show a different picture

On Wednesday, Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser to the Romney campaign [said:]

"I’m struck by a couple of things," he said on Fox News. "Three swing state polls [are] out today and in every single one of them, they have a Democratic voter participation that is higher than the participation in the electorate in 2008. I don’t know anyone on the ground in any of these swing states who believes that there will be a higher Democratic percentage of the electorate in 2012 than there was in 2008." …

As Josef Goebbels once said, “It is not propaganda’s task to be intelligent, its task is to lead to success.”

Critics have also argued that in addition to oversampling Democrats, pollsters are undersampling people who might be sympathetic to Republicans…

Of course, CBS goes on to insist that they don’t do this.

Instead… the polls are weighted by "immutable characteristics – race, gender, age." Respondents are then asked their party identification during the interviews…

Which amounts to the same thing if you know how to rig it. And they do.

Moreover, some pollsters argue that using the 2008 turnout numbers to draw conclusions, as Gillespie and others have done, ignores the fact that state demographics are likely to change over a period of four years.

What a laughable thing to say. It’s the pollsters who are claiming that things haven’t changed since 2008. It is the pollsters who are ignoring the exit polls from the 2010 elections.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, September 27th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

5 Responses to “CBS (Dems +9) Says There Is No Polling Bias”

  1. Reality Bytes

    Can the media get anymore insipid?

  2. ilzito guacamolito

    Let them continue to cover for 0 at their peril. The populace is onto them and they have to double down to get him reelected.

    AB0 2012

  3. GetBackJack

    Steve writes an excellent lede

  4. Gil

    Indeed he does lede. On this and so many others. A true joy to browse the site. Thank you, as always, to Steve and the supporters on the board. Thank you for bringing to light THE TRUTH:

    Pro 23:23 Buy the truth, and sell it not; also wisdom, and instruction, and understanding.

    Appreciate it.


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