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DNC/CNBC: Markets Anticipate Obama Win

From CNBC:

Markets Start to Anticipate Obama Victory in November

By: John Melloy
February 29, 2012

While President Obama may not be Wall Street’s ideal candidate, stock prices are rising on growing expectations he will be re-elected this November.

Part of that, market pros say, is simply that investors feel more certain about who will be in the White House for the next four years and which policies they will have to deal with.

And investors simply cannot wait for the ‘Taxageddon’ in January 2013.

Obama’s chances of winning in November increased to above 60 percent on Tuesday, up from about 50 percent at the beginning of the year, according to the odds on prediction market Intrade.com.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has hit a new bull market high and is up 9 percent on the year

You see the correlation? It is obviously a case of cause and effect. And the US stock market uptick has nothing to do with European investors losing 53% of their holdings in the Greek bailout. Or any of the other losses expected in the other Euro bailouts.

But pretending for a moment that any of this is true, where are the Occupy Wall Street protesters? Shouldn’t they be protesting Obama?

The surge in President Obama’s chances at a second term also have coincided with a string of better-than-expected domestic economic data this year, including an all-important drop in the unemployment rate

The latest reading of U.S. consumer confidence on Tuesday blew away economists’ expectations. That contrasts with the Republican debates, many of which have centered on social issues

Right.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Wednesday, February 29th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

9 Responses to “DNC/CNBC: Markets Anticipate Obama Win”

  1. GetBackJack

    I don’t know about Obama winning, but I sure as hell believe the Republican Party will screw us all to the floor, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and while beating Obama should be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel, they’ll find a way to shoot us all in the neck.

  2. Astravogel

    If unemployment is really at 9.4%
    then I’m the King of the May! The
    Godless Russkies got away with
    this “pravda” crap for 50 years,
    and I expect the US folks will do
    so also.

  3. Petronius

    “stock prices are rising on growing expectations [Nerobama] will be re-elected this November.”

    Individual stocks respond to earnings. The stock market, on the other hand, responds to investor sentiment and psychology and to Fed interest rate policy.

    Market sentiment does not necessarily correspond to economic reality. Sentiment tends to be overly optimistic during Democrat regimes and overly pessimistic when Republicans are in office. I believe this is the result of media spin.

    Interest rates are at historic lows but obviously can’t stay there forever. At present there is only one strong-dollar member on the Fed.

    The best economic barometers are not stocks but rather oil, copper, gold, silver, and the US dollar. These indicators are generally trending negative (i.e., oil, gold, and silver are very strong, copper and the dollar are neutral to weak).

    While the stock market has improved the fundamental economic reality has not changed. We still have massive debt, ongoing government spending, monetization of debt, a depreciated dollar, negative interest rates, creeping inflation, high unemployment, a weak housing market, a loss of manufacturing base, a harsh regulatory environment, looming expiration of the Bush tax cuts, ObamaCare on the horizon, threatened class warfare, rising oil prices, open borders, eurozone troubles, uncertainty in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the surging threat of Iran.

    Therefore, market risk is high and caution is still warranted. If Nerobama is reelected, all of the above risks will be heightened.

  4. Right of the People

    The market may be high but nobody is investing in real stuff like building new facilities that will bring in more jobs. They are using that money and putting it in the market or at least that’s how I see it. My feeling is business owners are waiting until after the election to decide whether to expand or prepare to move to Canada or some other place if Barry O is returned to power.

    My one fear and maybe I’m way too paranoid, is that if the Ohole loses sometime before January 20th he will contrive some reason to declare martial law and essentially install himself as President for Life just Chavez in Venezuela. Then him and Moochelle can install their socialist utopia liked they’ve dreamed of since they were kids.

  5. Right of the People

    First Yahoo now CNBC predicting that the Ohole will be re-elected. We’d might as well just hold the coronation ceremony next week instead of wasting all that time with silly crap like elections.

    I wonder when the NY Slimes will go out on a limb and predict the Dear Leader will be re-elected. If that happens then it must be true. (sarc off now)

  6. tranquil.night

    “The private market is in a death spiral,” – Commissar Sebelius, regarding insurance, but omitting that is just as appropriate of her. http://cnsnews.com/news/articl.....ath-spiral (h/t Rush)

    • tranquil.night

      “The Energy Department isn’t working to lower gasoline prices directly.” – Commissar Chu, http://www.therightscoop.com/c.....as-prices/ (also h/t Rush)

      Maybe the recent stock market rally isn’t as much a solid indicator of a stable economic recovery as much as it’s a Last Hurrah before the chips get cashed in with the event of an Obama victory. Hey, so long as the Make Believe Media keeps living up to their namesake and are just going to assert whatever economic narrative suits their political agenda, when in Rome..

    • tranquil.night

      Whoop, that’s actually h/t to Steve.

      Hey ..must learn to read all the day’s posts..

  7. artboyusa

    “…anticipate Obama win”. They’re not the only ones. I get no pleasure from saying it but I refuse to join this exercise in auto-hypnosis about Romey’s “electability” that so many people who ought to know better are currently engaged with. Romney is a disaster, he will lose and lose big. He is not fast enough or smart enough, he doesn’t learn from his mistakes and he comes across as a weirdo with all the emotional intelligence of a box of washing powder.

    This election should be all about Obama, we should hang his record around his neck and make him wear it like a dead, stinking albatross but no, it will all be about Romney: his religion, his business deals, the goofy, open to misinterpretation things he keeps saying. He will be on defense right up to November, when he will give a gracious concession speeech and disappear.

    I wish I felt differently but I don’t. The guy is a dud and a loser. Sorry Ann, but “Director Of Communications for President Romney” is never going to feature in your career history.


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