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Forbes: Uninsured Are Not Down By 9.5 Million

An op-ed via Forbes:

How Well Is Obamacare Covering The Uninsured? A Glass Half Empty Moment

By Chris Conover | April 1, 2014

… The LA Times, relying heavily on as-yet-unpublished RAND Corporation survey figures, has reported a grand total of 9.5 million formerly uninsured have gained coverage. How should we assess this figure? …

Hard Truth #1: The Total Number of Uninsured Has NOT Declined by 9.5 Million

The LA Times figure includes 2 million uninsured purportedly covered through the Exchanges, 3 million previously uninsured young adults purportedly covered under their parents’ policies and 4.5 million covered through Medicaid.

Roughly 1 Million With Cancelled Plans Remain Uninsured. The problem with the first figure is that the LA Times itself reports “Fewer than a million people who had health plans in 2013 are now uninsured because their plans were canceled for not meeting new standards set by the law, the Rand survey indicates.”[1]This means we have to subtract this ~1 million newly uninsured group from the 9.5 million to arrive at the net reduction in uninsured of 8.5 million.

The Number of Previously Uninsured Young Adults Covered by Parents Half as Large as Reported. It was announced nearly 2 years ago that 3.1 million previously uninsured young adults age 19-25 had gained coverage as a consequence of the Obamacare mandate that parental plans cover such dependent “children.” … I’m willing to split the difference and say that this feature of Obamacare reduced the number of uninsured young adults by 1.6 million, meaning the net reduction in uninsured across the entire population is 7.1 million.

Hard Truth #2: Performance is Well Below CBO Projections

So is 7.1 million fewer uninsured a job well done or something in need of drastic improvement?  The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has been the official “scorekeeper” for Obamacare since well before it was even passed…

When CBO originally scored the law, analysts expected it to have reduced the number of uninsured by nearly three-fifths by 2014 alone (all estimates shown are calculated by comparing CBO’s projection of the reduction in the number of uninsured under the law to its projection of the number of uninsured in 2014 without the law)…

3/5ths (60%) of the oft-cited number of 40 million uninsured is 24 million.

Likely Truth #3: Had CBO Projections Been Accurate, Obamacare Never Would Have Passed

… At the end of the day, we appear to have covered 1 in 8 uninsured, but to get to this point, we have disrupted coverage for millions, increased premiums for tens of millions more and amplified the pain even further with a blizzard of new taxes and fees that will end up cost even the lowest income families nearly $7,000 over a decade.

Nothing I have seen in the rollout to date has altered my earlier estimate that we’ll see at least 4 “losers” for every “winner” under Obamacare, especially given that nearly two thirds (4.5 million of the 7.1 million) of the newly insured have gained their coverage through Medicaid rather than private coverage…

Moreover, imagine a world in which on March 20, 2010 the CBO had provided an accurate projection of exactly how the law actually would play out:

* 12.5% fewer uninsured by 2014 rather than 59%
* Millions with cancelled coverage, of which 1 million remain uninsured
* A $2 trillion increase in the federal debt in its first two decades rather than a deficit reduction
* Far higher premium increases in the non-group, small group and large group markets than originally estimated
* Nearly $7,000 in added taxes/fees over a decade even for families in the lowest 20% of household income

You get the idea. Armed with accurate information about its actual effects, what member of Congress would have voted for this lemon law?

The sad thing is, they might have.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Tuesday, April 1st, 2014. Comments are currently closed.

2 Responses to “Forbes: Uninsured Are Not Down By 9.5 Million”

  1. Boy, talk about the Doctrine of “Hold my beer and watch this ..”

  2. Enthalpy

    In the private sector everyone involved with this monstrosity would be on their way to prison.(or should be) ObamaCare was built on countless lies and continues to morph with countless lies.It is a pillar in the Progressive coup d’etat.


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