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Fox Poll: Likely Voters Give Romney 1% Edge

From Fox News:

Fox News poll: Race for the White House tightens

By Dana Blanton | August 24, 2012

Less than a week before the Republican convention begins, the race for the White House is a virtual tie. According to a Fox News poll of likely voters, the Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan ticket receives the backing of 45 percent, while the Barack Obama-Joe Biden ticket garners 44 percent.

Lest we forget, a Fox News poll two weeks ago gave a lot of hope to our media guardians because it showed Obama over Romney by 9 points. But, as we pointed out at the time, the poll had oversampled Democrats by a whopping 9%.

Similarly, a Fox News poll from a month and a half ago showed Obama with a 4 point edge. But that poll oversampled Democrats by 4%.

The good news here is that Romney is ahead even though this Fox News poll also oversampled Democrats by 4%. The breakdown (a pdf file): Dem/Rep/Ind: 42, 38, 18%.

The poll, released Thursday, is the first Fox has conducted among likely voters this year, which means an apples-to-apples comparison can’t be made to previous polls. Likely voters are eligible/registered voters who will most likely cast a ballot in this year’s presidential election.

The previous polls were just of registered voters. So this poll of likely voters is also more likely to be more accurate.

This is also the first Fox poll to ask about the top and bottom of the major party tickets: Democrats Obama and Vice President Joe Biden against Republicans Romney and Paul Ryan. ..

Both tickets have already gained the support of many of their key voting blocs. Romney has the edge among white Evangelical Christians (70-18 percent), white voters (53-36 percent), married voters (51-38 percent), men (48-40 percent) and seniors (50-41 percent).

Obama has the advantage among black voters (86-6 percent), women (48-42 percent), lower income households (53-35 percent), young voters (48-39 percent) and unmarried voters (55-34 percent).

The only shock here is that Fox News was able to find any blacks who say they are going to vote for Romney. Unlike the recent NBC/WSJ poll, which claimed Romney had zero support from blacks.

Independents back Romney by 42-32 percent (one in four is undecided). Independents were vital to Obama’s 2008 victory, backing him over Republican John McCain by 52-44 percent (Fox News exit poll)…

If true, and Romney is up by 10 points among Independents, this is quite a shocking development. It looks like Obama’s smear campaign against Romney might have backfired after all.

The poll shows Romney supporters are more enthusiastic. By an 11 percentage-point margin the challenger’s backers are more likely to be “extremely” interested in the election, and by 10 points they’re more likely to think it’s “extremely” important their candidate wins.

This also would indicate that the Romney supporters are more informed.

On the big issue of last week, slightly more voters trust the Democratic ticket (by three points) to do a better job protecting Medicare and ensuring it’s there for future generations.

When asked who they trust to improve the economy and create jobs, voters favor the Republican ticket by two points — a surprisingly slim margin in light of President Obama’s negative ratings on the issue.

By 54-42 percent, more voters disapprove than approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. His overall job performance stands at 46 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove…

We agree. The numbers still don’t really add up. We are constantly told that the economy is the top overriding issue in the election. And yet Romney is only slightly ahead?

We suspect Romney’s lead is actually lot larger than the polls are showing.

This article was posted by Steve on Friday, August 24th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

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