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Gallup: 4% Obama Voters Moving To Romney

From Gallup:

More 2008 Obama Voters Than McCain Voters Switching Sides

Vast majority of 2008 voters staying loyal to party in 2012

by Jeffrey M. Jones | Monday August 6, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ — Eighty-six percent of voters who say they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are backing Obama again this year.

Which means that one in seven of his voters from last time are not going to vote for him again. Even so, that still seems low to us.

[Which is] a smaller proportion than the 92% of 2008 John McCain voters who are supporting 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

So Obama has lost 14% of his support, to the Republican loss of only 8%. Which means Democrats has lost twice as many former supporters.

Nine percent of 2008 Obama voters have switched to supporting Romney this year, while 5% of McCain voters have switched to Obama.

So Romney is only picking up a 4% gain? We find that almost impossible to believe. Besides, since Gallup is reporting this, the real number are probably far higher.

The results are based on July 23-29 Gallup Daily tracking with more than 2,000 registered voters who reported voting in the 2008 election. Of these, 48% said they voted for Obama and 42% McCain…

Note that this is a poll of registered voters. Not likely voters.

Thus, it follows that fewer voters are supporting Obama this year than in 2008. But the race remains close because Obama’s margin in 2008 was large enough that he could still be tied or in the lead this year if his support is a few percentage points lower

Meaning, since Obama won by 6%, he can still win even after a 4% swing to Romney. Which is probably why Gallup cooked the numbers to show only a 4% pick up by Romney.


The vast majority of U.S. voters are remaining consistent in their voting preferences between 2008 and 2012, be it for Barack Obama or the Republican presidential candidate. But loyalty to Obama is slightly less than loyalty to the Republican candidates, resulting in a more competitive race at this point than in the final 2008 results.

The 11% of 2008 Obama or McCain voters who have switched to supporting the other party’s candidate or are undecided at this point is not a relatively large group. But it is a group that could potentially be persuaded between now and Election Day, and thus could be crucial in deciding the outcome.

For the record, Gallup does not tell us how much they oversampled Democrats.

Meanwhile, we have this timely warning from Dick Morris.com:

The Real Poll Numbers

By Dick Morris | Monday August 6, 2012

The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.

If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.

So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.

The polls are about as accurate as the reports of Romney’s gaffes.

Which is to say, not at all.

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, August 7th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

4 Responses to “Gallup: 4% Obama Voters Moving To Romney”

  1. GetBackJack says:

    Gallup probably dropped a zero


  2. Chrispbass says:

    Speaking of McCain. WHY ON EARTH is he speaking at the GOP convention? Do they not remember 2008?

  3. Petronius says:

    That the American idiocracy should have elected Nerobama in 2008 is cause for great concern. That half the electorate still supports him––despite everything that has occurred since 2008––boggles the mind.

    Are Americans still capable of self-government? The evidence would seem to run against it.

    Democracy is the most idealistic of all forms of government because it requires the greatest possible extension of civic virtue to all citizens. This includes an expectation of schooling in citizenship, a sense of mutual responsibility for the fate of fellow citizens, a willingness to work for the common good, a profound and universal respect for the Constitution and rule of law, a free and honest press, and active support for the republic through participation in community affairs, military service, and payment of taxes. It is predicated on the idea that its citizens will be faithful and obedient in religion, will be bound by their oaths, will develop strong families, will be industrious in their labors, and will possess an overriding sense of loyalty, moderation, fairness, justice, and prudence.

    Sadly these conditions no longer apply in modern America.

    Instead, what we get from Nerobama and his accomplices is class warfare, identity politics, racial animosity, attacks on Christianity and the family, corruption and rank partisanship, raw self-interest, and promotion of special interests. Only half the people pay taxes and only one percent are willing to serve in the military, while the majority are on some form of government welfare. We have government-supported abortion on demand as a matter of “reproductive rights,” while growing our population through mass immigration. We open our borders to all-comers and give them rights superior to citizens but without any responsibilities of citizenship. We dismantle the economy in order to protect the spotted owl, the delta smelt, the sagebrush lizard, and the tiny Gulf seahorse––all done at tremendous cost to our society and security.

    The Democrat Party calls for unbridled sexual license and homosexuality, unlimited access to taxpayer-funded abortions, and a redefinition of marriage, thereby undermining traditional values that sustain family life and a culture of modesty and self-restraint. They issue calls to silence conservative talk radio and to censor the internet. While they also use the immense power of the state to clamp down hard on every form of economic activity, and to force confiscations at the point of a gun, in order to “spread the wealth around.”

    The Constitution is dead, and the rule of law is in its death throes.

    I have to wonder why George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and the other good and wise men who framed the Constitution put provisions in that document requiring presidents and Supreme Court justices to take oaths to support a Constitution whose words, we are now told, have no fixed meaning? And specifying that the Constitution can be changed only by the joint action of the Congress and the States, while we find that in reality it is rewritten almost daily by leftist judges who substitute their personal ideology for the established rules of law?

    The President is a dictator who governs by fiat, the majority leader of the Senate is a snake oil salesman, the Attorney General is a gangster, and the Chief Justice is a coward.

    Yet half the American people are happy with this sorry state of affairs, and ready to vote for more of it.

    • Yarddog1 says:

      Most well said, Petronius! You did an excellent job of summing up our current situation as well as describing our “leadership”. As a student of human nature well tempered by six decades of life, I believe we may be done. Culturally expectations have diminished, socially we are splintered and spiritually we are weak. We have been far too tolerant, for far too long, of behavior that is not in the best interest of the survival of our once great Republic. Universally speaking we are living in an interesting, historic and dangerous period in history. What is most amazing is that it hasn’t really taken that long to weaken and destroy the very foundations of American culture. It has been a good ride while it lasted, but I am concerned about those who come after us.

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