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Gallup: GOP Still Ahead 15% In ‘Generic’

From Gallup:

Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday

Lead in generic ballot large enough to give Republicans solid majority control of U.S. House

by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad
October 31, 2010

PRINCETON, NJ — The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided

It is perhaps telling that Gallup is being quite calm about this 15% lead. For instance, they do not project how many seats the Republicans will gain.

Yet even the 4 point lead among registered voters is quite newsworthy. (Which is up a whole percentage point since just three weeks ago.)

Since, according to earlier articles from Gallup, the highest such gap among registered voters in history has been five points – and not in week before an election, but in June of 2002 and July of 1994.

Even so, both of those elections resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats. So this really could be the Tea-nami of our dreams.

Indeed, this could end up being the single greatest rejection of a President in his first term in the history of our country, not counting Mr. Lincoln. (And even then it might be close.)

On the other hand, after all the massive rallies, after all of these polls, if there isn’t a conservative landslide — then we will have to start to wonder if there’s not some really fundamental problem with our electoral system.

And we might really be facing a Civil War, at least figuratively.

This article was posted by Steve on Monday, November 1st, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

9 Responses to “Gallup: GOP Still Ahead 15% In ‘Generic’”

  1. proreason says:

    Traditionally, republicans underperform in polls, but right now, I think the numbers are probably pretty accurate.

    As the Moron has taken his mask off, and the msm has been unable to disguise any longer what the criminals really stand for, more and more people have decided to speak their minds to pollsters rather than cower from being labeled racists. That may be the most important thing that has happened in the last year. People know they aren’t alone and that virtually every white person in the country is scared to death of the criminals, as well as many who aren’t white.

    And it’s even more than that. At S&L, we have long been willing to say what we really think, and for most of the last 2 years, almost everyone in the country would have called us extreme.

    But we aren’t. We are not in a minority opinion. We have just been more courageous about stating what everybody in flyover country thinks but has been afraid to say. In fact, I’d go even farther. I actually think we are more liberal than the average middle American, because we think about this stuff a lot more than most, and are LESS reactionary than the people who just wake up a couple of weeks before elections.

    If this election is stolen, there will still be a tsunami. It will be a tsunami of rage.

  2. Curmudgeon says:

    I actually had this experience. I joined a conversation with some people I could tell I agreed with, but did not know very well yet, and expanded the conversation a bit. One lady responded with a kind warning that one of the other ladies “watches Fox News”, which I found strange and amusing.

  3. GetBackJack says:

    From Godfather Steve – “On the other hand, after all the massive rallies, after all of these polls, if there isn’t a conservative landslide — then we will have to start to wonder if there’s not some really fundamental problem with our electoral system.”

    That’s my prediction. Stolen elections, political shenanigans. Outright blatant criminality. Recounts until we lose our cool. And historically …. nothing comes of our rage.

    I really have given up on any solution short of lamp posts and rope. And I absolutely mean it, because it is useless to negotiate with Cancer. It wastes your time, and allows the Cancer to continue to spread and metastasize. Kidding ourselves that the crazy disturbed mentally unbalanced and spiritually bereft can be talked into Sense and Sensibility is like trying to teach a pig to whistle. It wastes your time and irritates the pig.

    • tranquil.night says:

      Hold Faith. We’ve got the brightest, most grounded people the world has never heard of united in cause to stopping this. The truth is with us, we’ve just got to peacefully hold the line of dissent under the shield of our principles. They will become unhinged first because it’s their fantasy world and their base that’s falling apart and cannibalizing itself.

      It’ll be tough, and it’s wise to prepare for what we’re dealing. Don’t let them intimidate you into the spirit of hopelessness!

    • GetBackJack says:

      I appreciate the sentiment, Tranq, but I’ve been hearing mollifying statements ever since Ayers, Dorn, Chicago, Kent State, Jane Fonda and the crushing of dissent against those who believed Joe McCarthy wasn’t just right …. he was only 1/4 right. And guess what? Joe’s crusade wasn’t even CLOSE to how embedded Communism is in America.

      And so far, all that “just you wait” sentiment has produced a Nation utterly unrecognizable from the America I grew up in.

      There’s literally no way to unravel this knot except the one way Alexander demonstrated. Our forefathers certainly understood this. They didn’t break away from tyranny and a Mad King via elections and debate.

    • Rusty Shackleford says:

      GBJ has a point. From when I was born to today, the rot that is the creeping paralysis of socialism and the desire for the government to “manage” all things in our personal lives has grown to epic proportions. The thing that got my attention, perhaps most of all, is the staggering portion of our population that does not pay taxes.

      Then, coupled with the ridiculous fantasies of the uber-intellectual left, all you get is a mish-mash of garbage policies, a dream of one day having a perpetual motion machine and then add in political correctness and you have government’s —local, state and federal—that become showpieces for who’s got the most “fair” system.

      Attached heavily to that are the truly greedy undertakers of this nation. Like in a Clint Eastwood movie, they are preparing the caskets for the expected number of dead, as all the while crafting the vehicle for their demise. How can it possibly go wrong? When people like Pelosi, Reid, Obama, Frank, Dodd, McCain, and every other “big-hearted” person in government attempt to show their magnanimity with other people’s money, they only please the recipient of the money. They fail to recognize that it angers the producers of that money and still, there are more of us than there are of them. Thus, they desire to create more takers instead of producers in some sick, warped logic that it will keep them in power.

      Is that what it’s all about? Their own “job preservation program”? One has to conclude that it is indeed part of the much larger equation, but a significant part at that.

      However, I am grateful in at least one respect. Much as I hate the staggering debt these people have foisted upon us and our great-great-great grandchildren, I note the particular ease and nonchalance with which they’ve done it. Only the boldest of criminals act in such a way as to feel and demonstrate no guilt or shame nor entertain any notion that they’ve done anything wrong. They expire their last breath swearing they were in the right.

      In Roman times, such people were dealt with in a very immediate and real manner. And this addresses GBJ’s point. In our nation, this nation that is still (for now) the freest in the world, the most innovative, the most diverse, we have to first change our government peaceably. For the time being, the system has worked but as people have figured out that by being forthright and honest, it doesn’t get them any cash from the public trust so they instead use other means to get that cash. And it has largely worked. They have been draining the coffers of late at a record pace and along with that, the elephant in the room has been the monumental payoff to the socialists with borrowed money from a nation that largely dislikes us. Which is kind of ironic because they, themselves consider westerners to be very low on the human scale. Always have, always will.

      So their loaning of money to lowlifes screams loudly as an oddity.

      So how do we get out of this mess? Pro has mentioned several reforms that need to be encapsulated and enforced. But that’s the key word–“enforcement” for right now we have a complicit government that turns a blind eye to its own lawbreaking. The people have demanded accountability and find a federal government curiously silent on the matter. So, like Chicago, when the very bastions of law are corrupt, you have rampant crime at the highest levels. Everyone knows it but not one soul will lift a finger to do anything about it. It’s nothing short of the Bonano family running our government.

      And it is our government. They work for us, not the other way around. So we vote.

      But here is where GBJ has the biggest point. If when we vote, those elected are more concerned with their own lot than that of the people who got them elected, there is a very immediate and obvious problem. If that elected official doesn’t hold their responsibility as a sacred trust, they need to be removed forthwith and with extreme prejudice. Unfortunately, in the days of our nation’s birth, the rule of stigma and ostracizing people who were found to be corrupt was enough for many in high office to not try to do anything contemptible. But thanks to a very lenient system of law here, it’s ok now to walk around with the money you just stole and wave it in the face of the person you stole it from and to cry “foul” paints the truly harmed person as a racist, a homophobe, etc. They have warped the message to their advantage which, in every nation that has it, plays well for socialism.

      But ultimately, the people get fed up. Interestingly in a mass population, they can pretty quickly size up their government and they can tell what’s what. So again it comes down to the notion that some say we need “really intelligent people” in government. But what good is all that intelligence if they are criminals? I’ll take a thousand average-intelligence, honest and forthright person over one high IQ’ed criminal any day. Such things are great for the big screen in Hollywood, but not in our government.

      Barring the elections, as GBJ has stated, the only recourse left for the conservative right is pitchforks and torches. No one likes to think about it but as long as those elected know they can never suffer any harm, they will do as they please. When accountability used to carry a lot more weight, they held the fear of being publicly humiliated. But in today’s society, public humiliation is easily explained away, thanks to a fawning media. Unless you’re a conservative with scruples. They know the conservatives still fear humiliation, which is why they use it so much in their attempts to destroy the people who are on the side of conservatism. But their message is starting to fail and new buzz words and ad hominem attacks are failing.

      For the radicals on the left, the only thing that will scare them back into the woodwork where they belong is the fear of bodily harm and of having their millions stripped and of being ostracized from the collective. They are sheltered so well that they believe themselves untouchable. And we know how Chicago dealt with that in the 1930’s.

  4. canary says:

    Lucky, aside our local media there are ads. We now have a Democrat runner who is saying they are not running as a Democrat or Republican, but as an Independent, and says communication skills are an issue.

  5. proreason says:

    Jay Cost says the final Gallup poll is the most reliable indicator of the election outcome. In the last 5 mid-term cycles, the most Gallup has been wrong on the R side is 1.3%. Triple that and the Repubs have a 12% advantage….far more than in 1994.


    Cost is a pretty balanced guy, although he occasionally reveals that he has a conservative lean.

    He always backs up what he says with a lot of data and throrough analysis.

    If he is right about Gallup and this 15% poll is even close to the truth, Wednesday morning might be like Chrismas day for an 8 year old.

  6. And somewhere in a Hilton in DC a seemingly fiber rich John Dingell has found a use for the Depends undergarments he has been getting as gifts for the last 150 years.

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