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GOP Up In Early Voting, Romney Tied In Penn

From The Weekly Standard:

Massive Decrease in Early and Absentee Voting—in Chicago

By DANIEL HALPER | Sun November 4, 2012

The Illinois Republican party claims early and absentee voting has precipitously fallen since the 2008 presidential election.

According to the numbers, at this point in 2008, there were 260,376 early voters and 304,290 absentee voters. Now, the party maintains, there are 195,064 early voters and 46,232 absentee voters. That’s a loss of 57 percent of voters, since the last [Presidential] election…

"Chicago is the heart and soul of the Democratic Party," says Illinois Republican party chair Pat Brady. "You can’t get much more solid blue than Chicago and of course it’s the President’s home base – literally. If voter participation in the President’s home base is down 57% from four years ago, the President is in serous trouble nationally." …

This is entirely possible. Some independent pollsters have been saying for months that Obama could lose the state.

In fact, unless Obama carries Cook County by more than 62% he loses, because the rest of the state is Republican. And he is currently polling below 62% in Cook county. Some say as low as 59%. But of course it is harder to poll dead voters.

Still, since Romney has not spent any money in Illinois on advertising, and he has not campaigned there, there is a danger that the downstate Republicans might not bother to vote in large numbers. But if they hear that they actually might have a chance to make a real difference, they might vote after all.

And, on top of this, we are being told by the folks on the ground that Republican are 250,000 votes ahead of where they were 4 years ago in early voting in Ohio. Which is a state Obama only won by 260,000 votes.

Meanwhile, we have this from the Fox Detroit affiliate, WJBK:

Dead heat for Romney and Obama in latest Michigan poll

Sunday Nov 04, 2012

WJBK Fox 2 – Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election – Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election…

In other words, at least one Michigan poll has Romney tied with Obama. In fact, he is .6% ahead.

And we have this from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call

By Mike Wereschagin | Sat November 3, 2012

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows…

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president…

Which is not good news for Mr. Obama.

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate surpassed the national average in September after remaining below average throughout the recession. In Ohio, where both campaigns have spent far more time and money, the unemployment rate was 7 percent in September, more than a percentage point lower than Pennsylvania’s 8.2 percent…

Obama enjoyed wide leads in state polling during most of the race. That narrowed when Romney’s image improved as a result of the October presidential debates. Susquehanna found 48 percent of voters view Romney favorably, the first time he tied Obama on that measure. A Trib poll in September found Obama with a 47 percent favorability rating, compared with Romney’s 41 percent…

Bear in mind, Romney has just started campaigning and advertising in Pennsylvania, and he is already tied with Obama.

That is pretty amazing.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Monday, November 5th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

3 Responses to “GOP Up In Early Voting, Romney Tied In Penn”

  1. artpa says:

    here’s a report from Philly. Every blasted commercial on TV is political. Races that were wildly democratic are now toss-ups. Todays daily news headline is “can mitt win pa, big turnout for bucks county rally, but is that fools gold?” That is desperation folks. The obama people are going door to door here to get out the vote

  2. Right of the People says:

    In my former home state of Ohio, there were a boatload of people out to see Romney this weekend while Barry the Bungler was speaking to mostly empty space from what my cousin said. Mind you this is in the Cleveland area which is wildly unionized and democrats.

  3. Anonymoose says:

    To be blunt I have no idea where it’s heading. The conservatives are mostly quiet, the liberals are in a full on windmill of knocking on people’s doors, posting online about the finer points of Obamacare and Obama’s presidency, and the latest thing, a proposal to make the “Elite States of America” where the true blue and smart people take the blue states (and correspondingly the best of the U.S.) and make their own country. I tell you, nothing convinces people how smart you are than calling everyone else neanderthals. Of course to do it right would not be entire states but most rural areas and smaller cities, leaving only islands of blue.

    I think there’s also a lot of the “Pauline Kael” effect going on. She was notable for wondering how Nixon go re-elected as she didn’t know anyone who voted for him—kind of like how they freaked out at Bush’s re-election. They talk and associate among themselves and share their own narrow worldview–kind of like what they accuse conservatives of doing.

    I’m voting early tomorrow but am otherwise blocking out all the news until Wednesday morning–and hope our country wakes up from this bad dream called Obama.


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