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High Jobless, Low House $ = New Normal

From an unfazed Associated Press:

AP survey: Recovery to remain sluggish into 2011

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

April 12, 2010

WASHINGTON – The pillars of Americans’ financial security — jobs and home values — will stay shaky well into 2011, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.

Of course these are the same economists who seem to be perpetually surprised by every bit of new economic news.

The findings of the new AP Economy Survey, released Monday, point to an economic recovery that will move slowly and fitfully this year and next. As a result, the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates near zero until at least the final quarter of this year, three-fourths of the economists said…

Among the first survey’s key findings:

The unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high the next two years. It will inch down to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 8.4 percent by the end of 2011. The rate has been 9.7 percent since January. When the recession started in December 2007, unemployment was 5 percent.

Home prices will remain almost flat for the next two years, even after plunging an average 30 percent nationally since their peak in 2006. The economists forecast no rise this year and a 2.3 percent gain next year.

The economy will grow 3 percent this year, which is less than usual during the early phase of a recovery and the reason unemployment will stay high. It takes growth of 5 percent for a year to lower the jobless rate by 1 percentage point, economists say.

The economy began growing again last summer, 18 months after the recession started…

Again, the AP insists on trotting out the lie that the recession started in December 2007, which is not true. It started in the final quarter of 2008.

Economists think sales of previously occupied homes, the biggest chunk of the market, will tick up to 5.4 million this year and to 5.9 million in 2011. That would mark continued improvement from the low of 4.9 million in 2008 and be in line with sales in a healthy economy.

But there’s a catch. Sales are forecast to rise in part because of another anticipated wave of foreclosures. That will keep prices from rising — and consumers from spending freely. Surging home equity spurred spending during the housing boom of the last decade…

Economists say it may take until at least the middle of the decade for home values to begin rising normally again. The biggest asset for many Americans, homes have appreciated an average 4 percent a year since World War II, economists say.

National house prices have never remained flat while the economy was growing, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which reviewed data going back to 1969…

The recession wiped out 8.2 million jobs. Zandi and other economists had previously forecast that unemployment, which reached 10.1 percent in October, would peak at 11 percent this year. [Moody’s] Zandi now expects joblessness to climb again from the current 9.7 percent and reach 10.2 percent by December. That’s because many people who have quit looking for work and aren’t counted as unemployed will start looking again and because job creation will remain weak

About 125,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep up with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from rising. To reduce the jobless rate significantly, employers would need to consistently add 200,000 to 300,000 a month

Will the Associated Press and the rest of the Obama-media be able to convince enough voters that this is all perfectly normally by November?

If they aren’t, it certainly won’t be from lack of trying.

This article was posted by Steve on Monday, April 12th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

8 Responses to “High Jobless, Low House $ = New Normal”

  1. Mithrandir says:

    Everytime the Obama administration and their lapdog media admit something happened ‘unexpectedly’, THEY NEED TO PUBLICLY APOLOGIZE TO GEORGE W. BUSH!

    ‘Unexpected’ huh, well well well, not so eeeeeasy is it? All those grandiose political speeches on how Obama was going to fix this and fix that and every way was wrong but HIS way……well now, looks like HIS way is even worse now isn’t it?

  2. mr_bill says:

    The Orchestrated Press continues to lower the bar for Nerobama. Its disgusting. Permanent 9-10% unemployment really makes one miss the dark ages when Bush was president and unemployment was an “unacceptable” 5% and 150,000-200,000 new jobs a month was “not enough.” Under this regime, we are losing 430,000+ jobs a month and that’s a “good day” for Americans, according to the brain trust in charge. The Ministry of Truth will never be able to convince me that this “new normal” is acceptable.

  3. proreason says:

    AP tilling the soil for November.

    When there is a modest recovery that becomes clear in the summer…..it will be hailed as the Obama miracle.

  4. Crapgame13 says:

    I’m almost convinced when the AP says “Economists say” it’s Paul Krugman

  5. canary says:

    Obama’s education didn’t teach him about housing during the Great Depression, perhaps because of his life long fixation on Africa, Indonesia, Pakistan. Someone I knew actually learned something from Hartford.

    I knew a late Republican that helped save Boston and have documentation of this busy civic leader, whose biggest problem before the crash was pheasants getting their food stolen from the pheasants from a neighbor home.

    So, after the crash, spouse committed suicide. It was sit with 4 servants and starve or do something. First, moved and rented a very small old home. Was offered job with oil company but decided on real estate, the few classes at Hartford came in handy to start in Real-Estate which was not considered honest work back then. Eventually, bought a little house for a few thousand dollars. Houses were heavily mortgaged back then, and over many years, this person was even able to help children, now grown, buy their childhood homes that had seen several owners over these years. All the biggest houses at the top, were bought by the wealthiest.

    But, today we have a incompetent, uneducated President that keeps informing the entire world, people in America are entitled to own a house.
    And to think Obama was to punish & bring America down, so that other countries would stop hating us.

  6. bobdog says:

    Well, here are MY key findings:

    • The unemployment rate will stay “unexpectedly” high until Congress is reseeded with people who have more than an idiot’s understanding of macroeconomics.

    • Home prices will remain almost flat for the next two years, for the same reason.

    • The economy will grow less than 3 percent this year, because Congress will continue to try to spend our way out of a deep recession, while raising taxes and restricting business growth.

    But I repeat myself. All three boil down to this: it’s time to kick in the doors of Congress and change the nameplates on the office doors.

  7. Mithrandir says:


    Under Reagan, every bit of misery was trotted out for our viewing. Every homeless and poor person was suffering under Reagan. “If only we would be focusing on these people instead of our fight with the Russians….” Just like a lawyer, invent or allude to misery cases (which are always prevalent in history) and totally dismiss the gains.

    NOW look at how they write about Obama? Golly willikers, that stubborn economy–tisk tisk. Let’s cram in a bunch of numbers and not focus on Obama’s horrible policies because that has nothing to do with it. In fact, the state-run ‘Ministry of News’ can’t find 1 thing that can be linked to Obama, not 1. Isn’t that amazing?

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