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Hurricanes Predictions Were Wrong Again

From a once again disappointed Reuters:

U.S. gets off lightly in active hurricane season

By Tom Brown
06 Oct 2010

MIAMI, Oct 6 (Reuters) – The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been very active in the number of storms but is likely to go down as a non-event for most people in the United States, which has so far dodged a major landfall, the top official U.S. hurricane forecaster said on Tuesday.

Before the June 1-Nov. 30 season got under way, residents of hurricane danger zones were warned by many forecasters they faced a very high probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.

And these predictions were made by the same ‘scientists’ who have been insisting  for decades that man-made ‘global warming’ will destroy the planet in ten years.

That has not happened and with the most active part of the season winding down in the next two weeks or so, the chances of a major impact on the U.S. mainland or on energy interests in the Gulf of Mexico are ebbing.

"If you just use (U.S.) landfall as a criteria and did not pay attention to the numbers, you’d think this was a really quiet year," U.S. National Hurricane Center director Bill Read told Reuters.

"A couple of relatively minor impacts and some flooding and that’s what we’d have to show for it," he said.

How disappointing.

Read said 2010 was still likely to go down in the record books as another in a string of exceptionally busy seasons, however. The United States had just been very lucky in not getting hit by a major hurricane

"That’s a relatively narrow escape if you look at it from the global perspective," he said

Hope springs eternal. And despite Mr. Read’s claims, this does not seem to have been an exceptionally busy season.

This Reuters article somehow neglects to mention the actual number of ‘named tropical storms’ this season, but it is up to 15 so far. The NOAA had predicted as many as 23 name tropical storms.

The NOAA also predicted that that from 8 to 14 of these storms would develop into official hurricanes. In fact, only 7 did. And of these 7 only 5 were classified as major hurricanes.

Lest we forget, this is how the Associated Press and the ‘scientists’ at the NOAA whipped up the fear back in May:

U.S. predicts up to 7 major Atlantic hurricanes

The season may spawn as many as 23 named tropical storms


MIAMI — The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will likely be a busy one and may spawn as many as 23 named tropical storms, including up to seven major hurricanes, the U.S. government said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that eight to 14 storms would strengthen into hurricanes, with top winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or higher. Three to seven of those could become major storms that reach Category 3 or higher — meaning they bring sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph).

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

The 2010 government forecast is based on the weakening of El Nino. The Pacific Ocean phenomenon created strong wind shear that helped suppress storm development in the Atlantic last season. Record warm water temperatures also will feed storms crossing the Atlantic this year

It seems like every year we go through this same cycle of ‘wolf crying.’ But it helps promote the media’s ‘global warming’ agenda, so we might as well get used to it.

This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, October 7th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

5 Responses to “Hurricanes Predictions Were Wrong Again”

  1. oldpuppydixie says:

    And you can BET that our non-biased, straight arrow mainstream media types are wallowing in a deep, dark funk of depression, what with all of those candles lighted to Al Gore and other Gods of “Global Warming inspired disaster” having gone for naught. Another Katrina would have been just what the doctor ordered for these purveyors of environmental original sin, as thousands of hours of pro eco-nut programming–especially just before the November election–might have shifted public view away from the criminal abuses of the leftist ruling class and back to the evil gluttony of we the energy wasters where it belongs! Too bad Katie, Wolf, Andrea, Chrissy “Leg tingle” and the rest. Better luck next year.

  2. proreason says:

    As any baseball fan knows, the law of averages is the key law of life.

    Since the ‘climate scientists’ batting average at predicting hurricanes, and tornadoes, and storms, and tomorrow’s weather is about .0000000001%, all it means is that the accuracy of their predictions for decades, centuries and millenia in the future is extremely high. Indeed, we must accept those long-range forecasts as truth and immediately move into caves and tents to save the planet.

  3. Rusty Shackleford says:

    “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.” …

    This is the kind of vacuous comment that, when made, the person saying it knows full well they are playing a game of odds, chance, but they are also optimistic that if their gloom and doom prognostication comes true, they will be lauded by their “peers” for their “savvy, keen sense of things” and it could mean (gasp) MONETARY GAIN. Indeed, there’s absolutely nothing to lose.

    I can do the same thing…..”The Lions will win the Superbowl this year”. If I’m wrong? So what. If I’m correct and had that prediction in print somewhere, I’d get interviews and be friggin’ clairvoyant. Merlin was a very astute observer of probability and would phrase his predictions in vagueness, leaving the listener to interpret as they saw fit.

  4. GetBackJack says:

    Hell, the Weather Service hasn’t gotten my local forecast right in over a decade. Here’s why. About a decade ago, the fundamentals of local weather ‘prediction’ began relying on algorithms based on the collected data of averages. Instead of looking out the damn window. As God is my witness, the local office up at (what we euphemistically term) our ‘airport’ don’t even have a window in their blockhouse. It’s all computers and monitors. It’s the funniest thing, and cause for quite a bit of scornful humor around here to watch the Learning The Trade kids who get their first broadcast jobs on the local TV struggle to make a completely wrong forecast sound authoritative.

    Algorithms. When you really really need to cut corners and shed Salary-Overhead.

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