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Is It Time For Congress To Investigate The BLS?

From the American Spectator:

Time to Investigate the Bureau of Labor Statistics

What’s with the Household Survey’s miraculous spurt of 873,000 new jobs?

By Peter Ferrara | Wed October 10, 2012

Who needs the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), when you have Rush Limbaugh? Limbaugh predicted almost a year ago that the unemployment rate reported last Friday would fall below 8% for the first time since Obama entered office. Limbaugh by his own admission is no economist. So how did he know? Maybe because we are in the realm of politics now, rather than economics.

How Stupid Do They Think We Are?

The BLS reported last Friday that the economy in September created all of 114,000 net new jobs, just 104,000 in the private sector. To give you some context for how great that is, the working age population increased by 206,000 in September. With a labor force participation rate normal for the fourth year of a recovery (where we are right now), just keeping pace with that population growth would require 138,000 new jobs, before we can even start to reduce the unemployment rate.

Indeed, since Obama became President, the working age population has increased by 8.4 million. At the same labor force participation rate as when Obama entered office, that would require 5.52 million new jobs just to keep pace with that population growth. The total number of net new jobs created since Obama became President according to the BLS: 787,000

In other words, we should have needed 5.52 million jobs for the jobless rate to get back to 7.8%, which is where the jobless rate was when Obama took office. But we have only had 787,000 jobs created during Obama’s first term, according to the BLS’ own figures.

So the current rate unemployment rate just does not add up.

But not to worry. The BLS also reported on Friday that the number of full time jobs actually declined last month by 216,000. Thank you, President Obama. You are doing a great job. Socialism is finally working. Forward. Why would we ever consider turning back now?

So how did the reported unemployment rate fall to 7.8%, down from 8.1% in August, and 8.3% in July? That is because the BLS (might consider dropping the L) also reported that the separate Household Survey, on which the unemployment rate is based, found a giant 873,000 jump in jobs last month, the biggest one month increase in nearly 30 years! That makes sense because the same survey found a decline in jobs of 119,000 in August and 195,000 in July.

As we have mentioned before, the last time jobs grew at that rate was in 1983, when the GDP was growing at a rate of 9.3%. In September 2012, our GDP was somewhere around 1.3%.

Of course, 582,000 of those supposed jobs were part time "for economic reasons."

And, as Jack Welch has pointed out, part time jobs could be baby sitting for one hour a week.

The supposed sudden surprise spurt in September jobs in the Household Survey provided another gift to Obama. By August, for Obama’s entire term in office the economy had created less than zero jobs. In the more than three and a half years from Obama’s inauguration until then, the economy in total had lost 86,000 jobs. But the September surprise spurt of 873,000 jobs put Obama in the plus territory for his entire term with a grand total of 787,000 jobs created.

What a coincidence!

Creating 787,000 jobs would be one ordinary month in the Reagan recovery, where the largest gain in one month was 1.1 million jobs in September, 1983. That was not an anomaly then, when the economy was on the way to creating 20 million new jobs in 7 years.

The supposed sudden explosion of Household Survey jobs is inconsistent not only with the 114,000 jobs found in the Establishment Survey of employers. It is also inconsistent with the reported GDP growth of 1.3% in the second quarter, which has been declining for over two years. Monthly job creation of 873,000 would require economic growth 3 to 4 times that large, at least.

Again, under Reagan the GDP that gave us 873,000 jobs was 9.3%, which is seven times more than our current 1.3% GDP.

It is inconsistent as well with the decline of 216,000 full time jobs found for September. It is inconsistent with the decline of 16,000 manufacturing jobs that the BLS also reported for September, totaling a decline in manufacturing jobs of 38,000 in the last two months. Indeed, the Household Survey September burst of jobs is inconsistent with the prior months of declining jobs in the Household Survey itself. All the rest of this and other economic data is consistent with the reality that we are heading back into recession. Except for the September Household Survey, which is the basis for calculating the unemployment rate 4 weeks before the election

And, again, it is just a poll. And the most reliable of polls.

I am not alleging fraud or manipulation by the career bureaucrats at the BLS, who I know from personal experience with career federal officials are overwhelmingly Democrat and personally supporting Obama for reelection. I also know from personal experience with the Washington, D.C. area that these career Washington bureaucrats are personally doing better than ever.

But given the above inconsistencies and anomalies, along with the strange, fortuitous timing of the sudden September burst in supposed jobs, I just think it is time to ask some pointed questions, under oath, in an official investigation. That includes the Obama appointees to which the career bureaucrats report, as well as the bureaucrats themselves.

Is this questioning beneath their dignity? Well, they are public servants, and if they don’t want to answer to the public, they are perfectly free to get into the Obama job market themselves and try their own luck…

It’s a shame that Congress is in recess until after the elections. Because hearings most certainly are in order.

This article was posted by Steve on Wednesday, October 10th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

5 Responses to “Is It Time For Congress To Investigate The BLS?”

  1. GetBackJack says:

    I love our Host.

    Steve is always on target. He da Man.

    But gotdang, hoss. You think Washington wil ever investigate Washington?


    … whew ….

  2. Right of the People says:

    How convenient for Dear Leader. If this is the October Surprise then he is truly in trouble. Can’t wait for Bite Me to get his clock cleaned on national TV. Ryan could be comatose and still make that fidiot look like a fool.

  3. Tater Salad says:

    Voter fraud in Florida has now been exposed and quite frankly, it is going on in every other state. It is now on video/audio and here is proof that the Democratic Party does not want you to see. Is this going on in your state? Who needs the BLS when you have this going on!

    Voter Fraud is the Democratic Party’s Plan “B” if they are behind in the polls! Venezuela….eat your hearts out!


  4. BigOil says:

    What about the upward revisions in the unemployment application numbers for 82 out of the last 83 weeks? Maybe a BLS statistician could calculate the odds of that occurring from an unbiased bunch of data crunchers.

  5. Chrispbass says:

    Most transparent administration. Ever.

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