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January Unemployment Rate Down, Not Up

From a seemingly misled Associated Press:

January unemployment rate drops to 9.7 percent


February 5, 2010

The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 9.7 percent, while employers shed 20,000 jobs, according to a report that offered hope the economy will add jobs soon.

The unemployment rate dropped from 10 percent because a survey of households found the number of employed Americans rose by 541,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The job losses are calculated from a separate survey of employers.

Excluding the beleagured [sic] construction industry, which shed 75,000 jobs, the private sector added 63,000 positions…

The department also revised its past employment estimates to show that job losses from the Great Recession have been much worse than previously stated. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, up from a previous figure of 7.2 million.

That’s the most jobs lost in any recession, as a percent of total employment, since World War II

Much of January’s report offers hope that employers are starting to reverse course and may start adding jobs soon. Aside from November’s gain, January’s job losses were the smallest since the recession began and are down from the huge loss of 779,000 jobs in January 2009.

The manufacturing sector added jobs for the first time since January 2007. Its gain of 11,000 jobs was the most since April 2006.

Retailers added 42,100 jobs, the most since November 2007, before the recession began…

For once, this would seem to be truly unexpected news to the AP, since this is the original headline and lead paragraphs for this same article from Mr. Rugaber:

Job losses from Great Recession about to get worse

Job losses during the Great Recession have been huge and they’re about to get bigger.


February 5, 2010

When the Labor Department releases the January unemployment report Friday, it will also update its estimate of jobs lost in the year that ended in March 2009. The number is expected to rise by roughly 800,000, raising the number of jobs shed during the recession to around 8 million.

The new data will help illustrate the scope of the jobs crisis. Analysts think the economy might generate 1 million to 2 million jobs this year. And they say it will take at least three to four years for the job market to return to anything like normal…

Wall Street economists expect the January report will show a tiny increase of 5,000 jobs. That would be only the second monthly gain since the recession began. But it probably wouldn’t be enough to hold down the unemployment rate, which is forecast to rise to 10.1 percent. That would match October’s 26-year high. And it would be the fourth-straight month of double-digit joblessness…

Indeed, as we noted, in yesterday’s AP article about ‘unexpected jobless’ claims the very same Mr. Rugaber was predicting:

The figures come a day before the Labor Department is scheduled to report the January employment figures, which are expected to show a tiny gain in jobs. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10.1 percent

Could it be that the Labor Department was leading reporters to think that the unemployment numbers would be much worse so that when they turned out to be just a little better it seems like tremendously good news?

Or have we gotten too cynical?

In any case, we will wait for the revised figures before we get too excited.

This article was posted by Steve on Friday, February 5th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

9 Responses to “January Unemployment Rate Down, Not Up”

  1. GetBackJack says:

    Gee … with Givernment School Edication, math is too hard to get right. But they mean well, so give them a brake, huh?

  2. proreason says:

    1. Employed Americans rose by 541,000 because of a Household survey..

    2. Previous figures said job losses were 7.2 million, but were wrong. The correct number is 8.4 million.

    3. Empoyers shed 20,000 jobs

    Change in unemployed = (541,000) + 1,200,000 + 20,000 = 679,000 fewer jobs reported for January.

    To repeat, from this article, there are 679,000 jobs less than the prior month, but unemployment went down.

    He truly is a magic Negro.

    Point 2:

    There are 2 counts of unemployment. The first is based on employer reporting. That is the one that has been hovering around 10%. The second is based on a household survey. This is the one that has been hovering around 17%.

    Now, all of a sudden, the household survey seems to be used for the first measure as well. Hmmmm. Note also the word “survey”. Of course, with the most transparent administration EVAH, there is no chance of any manipulation of the survey.

    Point 3:

    and then there is this from elsewhere in the AP propaganda Steve brought us:

    “A Labor Department survey of households found that 541,000 more Americans had jobs last month. But most of those gains were attributed to seasonal adjustments to the data. Without those adjustments, which account for reduced hiring during winter, the data show fewer people had jobs last month.

    Yet, we are assured, unemployment is going down….due, apparently to “adjustments”. Frankly, the shell is moving faster than my eye can follow.

    It’s kind of like making an elephant disappear in front of your very eyes, isn’t it?

    • proreason says:

      As expected. The government’s new mission is to “architect” the unemployment numbers. From Rush today with Rick Santelli’s input:

      “They did two tricks today in addition to what I just mentioned to you. In fact, Rick Santelli on CNBC this morning said that the level of manipulation on these numbers is intensifying. Without the move to remove how many jobs there are in the marketplace, he says the rate would be 10.6% for January, and let me explain what he means. He was specific on the Obama administration lowering how many jobs are even in the total marketplace. I think they took it from 136 million and changed it down to 129 million. So if there is a smaller universe of jobs, naturally you’re going to have a lower percentage of those unemployed. They have been manipulating and doing everything they can to keep this number at or below 10%, but of course this is what’s called the U3 number. The U6 number includes — and this is the number that’s around 17 or 18% — people who have stopped looking, and that number continues to expand. These are the people whose unemployment compensation benefits have expired. So this 9.7% number… We’ll wait for the revisions as we always do, and we’ll pound the revisions to you when they come out. The State-Controlled Media will, of course, ignore them. But folks, it’s just not what it seems to be. I really wish it were. I wish that I could wholeheartedly endorse this. But everybody was stunned by this. Not just the usual experts were surprised. Everybody, and I’m wondering.”

      Nothing is sacred to the criminals. They will manipulate anything to get there way and the groveling whores of the press await the propaganda with open mouths.

      By the way, I remember clearly that the number of jobs in mid 2008 was 154 million. Now it’s 129 million. That’s a 16% drop in the number of permanent jobs in this country. That may be the most reliable number (except that the 129 million may include a couple of million government make-work jobs.)

      We’re in some deep shit here people.

      This country could go down the tubes before we get the criminals out.

      Meanwhile the smoke and mirror shows are playing in the coloseum daily.

    • MinnesotaRush says:

      “Nothing is sacred to the criminals. They will manipulate anything to get there way and the groveling whores of the press await the propaganda with open mouths.”

      EXACTLY, Pro!!! Right on, right on, right on! And you’re right again, when you say:
      “This country could go down the tubes before we get the criminals out.
      Meanwhile the smoke and mirror shows are playing in the coloseum daily.”

      This o-blah-blah dude and his administration are Trojan Horse incompetants and compulsive liars. Either they are completely and clinically dillusional or they are dangerously and purposefully ruining this Country and all it stands for!

  3. mr_bill says:

    Why don’t they just cook the numbers so that unemployment is 0%, that will fix the problem, right….since the only thing that matters to this administration is appearances rather than truth and reality. It wouldn’t be that much of a stretch from what they are doing now.

  4. jobeth says:

    Did they account for all the people who are no longer getting unemployment due to their being on it for its limit? Or the now older folks laid off and because of age no longer even try to get a job in this market?

    These people have just dropped out of the unemployment figures all together.

    This was the argument heard on one of the TV programs on Fox. Makes sense to me.

  5. BigOil says:

    We get to witness the Marxist methodology for achieving a low unemployment rate.

    Strangle the free market – thereby businesses neither expand nor hire – causing the unemployed to just give up.

    Pass astronomical budgets to hire a continuous stream of government bureaucrats and subsidize the chronically unemployed.

    Voila…we have achieved utopia…the instant before it all collapses.

  6. Rip Cord says:

    Remember when unemployment under George Bush was at 3.3 % and the liberal Media was SCREAMING about how lousy the economy was then? Was George Orwell on the MONEY or was he on the MONEY. What a joke, if the suffering from these people wasn’t so REAL!

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