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Jobless Drop Is Due To Seasonal Confusion

From the Associated Press:

US jobless claims drop by 35,000 to 353,000

By PAUL WISEMAN | Thursday, July 26, 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dropped by 35,000 last week, a figure that may have been distorted by seasonal factors.

The Labor Department said Thursday that applications fell to a seasonally adjusted 353,000. That’s down from a revised 388,000 the previous week and the biggest drop since February 2011…

It was only such a big drop because last week’s uptick was so large. In fact, it was even larger than first reported. Since, as usual, it was revised up by 2,000.

Which makes it now 27 weeks in a row, and 72 of the last 73 weeks, that the number has been revised up.

Applications surged two weeks ago, reversing a big drop the previous week. But economists caution that the government struggles every July to account for temporary summer shutdowns in the auto industry. The adjustments have been unusually difficult this year because some automakers skipped their shutdowns in the face of stronger sales, resulting in fewer temporary layoffs.

Why do they use ‘seasonal adjustments,’ if they can’t handle something that happens at the same time every year?

Unemployment benefit applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. When applications consistently fall below 375,000, it typically suggests hiring is strong enough to pull the unemployment rate down.

Which makes one wonder why don’t they don’t use the actual real life number of new claims, instead of the ‘seasonally adjusted number.’ After all, what could be a better measure than the real life number of new claims?

Unless you want to tweak the news for some political purpose.

This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, July 26th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

3 Responses to “Jobless Drop Is Due To Seasonal Confusion”

  1. GetBackJack says:

    Now the Seasons are confused? Jeebus Crisco is there anything these clowns can leave be and not screw up?

  2. Right of the People says:

    Maybe they need to eat more meat.

  3. canary says:

    I’ve been going around talking to the non-Spanish workers which is all you see working outside this season. It’s so cute. I’ll ask what color paint they are using and it takes a half of dozen before one says a color. I do not know what they think the American word “color” is, because no matter the color the say
    wood. They had out of state license plates.

    One neighbor complained about not trusting out of staters doing work, and I told her yeah, they don’t know what “color” means in English. And she said, but they do work we don’t want to do. Just like Obama and his organizing thugs said about the Spanish.

    Today I saw some of the out of staters down the street where they’d finished work a couple of weeks ago, as I was curious why they were back and wanted to practice my Spanish some more, so thought I’d check it out.

    As soon as they got out of the van I could tell they were complaining about the heat, and I thought to go get somethig cold for them as we are a neighborly state. But, the tongue wigglings and eyeing me, and animals noises they made, let me know it was a different kind of heat. Heck. If I’d gotten them something cold to drink they might have thought I was responding to their flirting. Don’t they know how unpolitically correct that is to act like that even inside or outside a bar?

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