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Jobless Rate 8.5% (Up .7% Since Obama)

From a breathless Associated Press:

Unemployment rate falls as economy adds 200K jobs

January 6, 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) — A burst of hiring in December pushed the unemployment rate to its lowest level in nearly three years, giving the economy a boost at the end of 2011.

The Labor Department said Friday that employers added a net 200,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent, the lowest since February 2009. The rate has dropped for four straight months.

The hiring gains cap a six-month stretch in which the economy generated 100,000 jobs or more in each month. That hasn’t happened since April 2006.

Actually, the Bureau Of Labor Statistics quietly revised down last month’s number of jobs added — from 120,000 to 100,000. And yet they left the official November unemployment rate un-changed.

The steady drop is a positive sign for President Barack Obama, who is bound to face voters with the highest unemployment rate of any sitting president since World War II.

For the record, no president since FDR has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2%.

Unemployment was 7.8 percent when Obama took office in January 2009.

Which means that the unemployment rate is still up .7% since Obama took office.

Economic recessions usually last months. Mr. Obama has managed to drag out this recession for three years.

Still, the level may matter less to his re-election chances if the rate continues to fall. History suggests that presidents’ re-election prospects hinge less on the unemployment rate itself than on the rate’s direction during the year or two before Election Day.

Isn’t that convenient? How come we have never heard that one before? Has the AP given up on getting the rate below 7.2%?

For all of 2011, the economy added 1.6 million jobs, better than the 940,000 added in 2010. The unemployment rate averaged 8.9 percent last year, down from 9.6 percent the previous year.

Economists forecast that the job gains will top 2.1 million this year

Sure they will. After all, when have these economists ever been wrong before?

Moreover, the currently declining unemployment rate is largely due to so-called ‘discouraged workers’ giving up looking for work and dropping out of the workforce. It’s not due to job creation.

Again, according to the Bureau Of Labor Statistics, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) remained un-changed last month, at 5.6 million. Which accounted for 42.5 percent of the unemployed.

A more robust hiring market coincides with other positive data that show the economy ended the year with some momentum.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits have fallen to levels last seen more than three years ago. Holiday sales were solid. And November and December were the strongest months of 2011 for U.S. auto sales.

Many businesses say they are ready to step up hiring in early 2012 after seeing stronger consumer confidence and greater demand for their products.

According to the Democrat Media complex our news media, ‘happy days are here again.’

But, unfortunately, the press is finding out that it is a lot easier to talk us into a recession than it is to talk us out of one.

This article was posted by Steve on Friday, January 6th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

8 Responses to “Jobless Rate 8.5% (Up .7% Since Obama)”

  1. Melly says:

    Unemployment benefits for scores of people (including my sister) expired in late December 2011. Now, they are unaccounted for.

  2. Rusty Shackleford says:

    It’s all a lie anyway. The REAL UE numbers are much higher and the sycophant media and DOL are manipulating the numbers to make the jerk-wad president look like he’s succeeding.

  3. Georgfelis says:

    There’s a phrase that shows up in about every unemployment report I’ve seen that does NOT show up here.

    “Seasonally adjusted” i.e. more people are hired for temp work over the Nov/Dec holliday season.

    Combine that with the number of people who’s unemployment benefits have expired, a dishonest media, and a president who is frantic to see his poll numbers go up and you get…this.

    If so, January’s numbers will be just awesome—ly bad.

  4. Petronius says:

    “For all of 2011, the economy added 1.6 million jobs….”

    That is about 133,000 jobs added per month. That is insufficient to keep up with the number of people added just from immigration. To replace jobs lost during the recession and keep up with population growth from all sources, we need to be adding well more than double that number. Even at that rate, however, it would take many years to restore unemployment to acceptable levels.

    Therefore, you might well ask how the official unemployment rate managed to go down last year?

    The secret is in the government’s methodology, and Steve’s explanation is the correct one I believe –– the BLS does not count discouraged and part time workers as unemployed. The BLS’ unemployment numbers (U3) only count people as unemployed who have applied for a job within the last four weeks and who are actively registered. The longer unemployment persists, the greater the number of people who stop looking. The number of people who have given up, and the number who have settled for part-time work, not to mention those who have accepted work below their skills level, is now in the many millions. These people are not counted.

    U6 unemployment is 15.2% and real unemployment is over 22%. Moreover, labor force participation is at an all-time low. Wages and incomes have fallen sharply in terms of real dollars.

    It is true that the numbers have shown improvement over the last four months. But one swallow does not make a summer. This may be only bottom-bouncing in a worsening economy, and clearly more rough patches lie ahead as the trillion dollar annual cuts in defense spending are felt. The volatility and uncertainty that prevailed in 2011 will likely continue as we move into 2012.

    Most news articles published about unemployment between now and the Nov election probably should be viewed skeptically. Come back to the subject in 2013, after the cuts in the defense, aerospace, and aviation industries have kicked in.

  5. proreason says:

    “For the record, no president since FDR has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2%.”

    If they think that’s important, then unemployment will be under 7.2% on election day.

    It’s been coming for quite a while, and they have used several techiques to make it happen.
    – They protected UAW jobs with taxpayer money
    – The Stickittous preserved teacher and other gubamint jobs at the state level
    – The feds have hired hundreds of thousands of paper pushers
    – Meanwhile, millions of workers have been driven out of the workforce. Bet your house that they will be able to drive enough others out to hit whatever number they want to hit.
    – Fascist cronies like GE and Apple will hire on command. The marxists will give them the numbers
    – They will “estimate” whatever other few percentage points they need.

    After all, the marxists now control the number crunchers. The numbers are going to be what they want them to be.

    In addition, pravda will be comparing the 7.1% to the 11.6% at the depth’s of the Bush Recession. (and wait for Obamy to inform us that 11.6% would have been 15.1% if it wasn’t for the jobs he “saved”.) You know, the recession that Obama fought so bravely to get us out of. Unemployment has been going steadily down since then hasn’t it?

    And don’t even pretend that he would have done this for the 2010 election if that was the intent. That election was NOTHING compared to 2012. They didn’t waste a penny on that one.

    And oh yes, unemployment is only one of the statistics that they will manipulate. Others include GDP, the stock market and consumer confidence. (They are working on housing as we speak.) All are going to be dramatically up in November 2012 compared to the low points of the Bush/Romney recession. And inflation…well, of couse that will be under 3%, perhaps under 2%, unlike the 5%+ under the president that Wall Street had in its pocket in 2008.

    Maybe Romney will be able to explain these numbers away in his boring technocrat way, after he proclaims during a debate that “Obama has failed” and Obamy counters “not according to the official statistics. We have a long way to go during my next four years, but I have already cut unemployment by 35%, increased GDP growth by 50%, and cut inflation in half! I have the data from the republicans last two years as well if Mitt is interested in it.”

    That’s what will happen to our one-bullet candidate who seems to think that it will be enough to simply call the boy king “a failure”.

    Maybe we need somebody who can communicate something other than a single theme, or maybe even somebody who will be willing to say something about Obamy other than that he is “a failure”.

    • Petronius says:

      Good point, pro.

      Nerobama not only owns the govt stats, but he’s also got the Fed to hold down interest rates and goose up the economy and markets with QE3 (or some variant).

      He’s also positioned himself to make tax-the-rich a winning issue.

      In 2008 McCain was the man chosen by Republicans to play the defense / War-on-Terror card. But then came the October financial meltdown and suddenly nobody cared anymore. All those people who said “We will never forget” forgot. And it became immediately obvious that McCain didn’t know diddly about economics and wasn’t up to the job. It was embarrassing.

      A single theme ain’t gonna do it this time either.

  6. BannedbytheTaliban says:

    “unemployment rate averaged 8.9 percent last year”

    By my calculations, which are of course always right, the rate averaged 8.95% last year. Of course that rounds up to 9%, a much more damning number. Even a five year old knows $99.99 sounds better that 100 bucks.

    Also, even at 8.5%, that is 0.5% higher than was to be allowed by the stimulus package, three years after it was passed.

  7. Anonymoose says:

    It’s election time, the news has to be all rosy from here on out, can’t afford to let the Democrats lose. Start the presses, the economy is looking good, repeat it until they believe it.

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