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Marist Oversamples NH, NV, NC Dems +5, +6%

From NBC News:

Polls: Obama leads in N.H., tighter in Nev., N.C.

By Domenico Montanaro | Thurs September 27, 2012

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.)

As usual, all three of these polls oversampled Democrats even among likely voters. In New Hampshire they oversampled Democrats by 5%. (Dem/Rep/Ind = 46/41/11%) In Nevada, they also oversampled Democrats by 5%. (Dem/Rep/Ind = 47/42/9) And in North Carolina, they oversampled Democrats by 6%. (Dem/Rep/Ind = 48/42/9%.)

Also, as the article notes, even with such skewed polls, Obama’s lead in Nevada (2%) and North Carolina (2%) is within their 3.1% margin of error.

“New Hampshire seems to be following the similar trends we’re seeing elsewhere,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, of the race in the Granite State, where Romney owns a home, and which borders Massachusetts, where the GOP nominee served a term as governor.

Yes, the ‘trend’ of oversampling Democrats to make it seem like an Obama victory is inevitable.

Over the past three weeks, NBC and Marist have released polls of nine battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin – and all show Obama with leads, ranging from 2 to 8 points…

In which Democrats were always oversampled. For instance, in Iowa, Marist oversampled Democrats by 5%. In reality, Democrats only had a 1% turnout advantage in 2008, when the enthusiasm for Obama was at its peak.

Meanwhile, we have this from Fox News:

Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend

By Doug McKelway | September 27, 2012

[There is] a precipitous decline in Democratic voter registration in key swing states — nowhere more apparent than in Ohio.

Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one…

[T]hose three counties all contain urban centers, where the largest Democrat vote traditionally has been.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent…

All of which just makes the news media’s constant oversampling of Democrats even more preposterous.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Friday, September 28th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

3 Responses to “Marist Oversamples NH, NV, NC Dems +5, +6%”

  1. GetBackJack

    Rush is right.

    These painfully obvious skewed polls are arranged to be a first strike in case Obama loses the election. The call will be for Voter Fraud by the Republicans because how could the vote result be so different from all the polling data done before the election?

  2. geronl

    Nancy Pelosi’s appearance on the Rachel Madcow Show is sure to have tilted this election to Barack Obama… lol…

    http://asspos.blogspot.com/201.....paign.html

  3. ilzito guacamolito

    Let’s see…undersampling Republicans by 6% + margin of error 3% – 0’s supposed lead 2% = Romney leading by 7% in NC.

    Put the blinders on, stay the course and vote Romney.




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