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New Jobless Claims Fall (NJ And DC Estimated)

From Reuters:

Jobless claims fall; NJ, DC estimated due to storm

by Jason Lange | Thu November 1, 2012

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign the labor market’s slow recovery was gaining traction.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 363,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was below the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 370,000.

In fact, these numbers are almost always far below even the most optimistic economic forecasts. What are the odds?

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation’s capital…

Of course the Department of Labor would never low-ball those numbers.

There were no signs the storm had any impact on last week’s data, the Labor Department analyst said.

The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smoothes [sic] out volatility, dropped 1,500 to a 367,250. Economists generally think a reading below 400,000 points to an increase in employment.

Notice how this number has been quietly ratcheted up. The magic number used to be 375,000. But it too has been seasonally adjusted, for the campaign season.

The prior week’s estimate for jobless claims was revised slightly higher to show 3,000 more applications than previously reported.

A detail Reuters saved for its penultimate paragraph. But a detail that the AP, as usual did not bother to report.

But this means last week’s number was revised up 372,000, which is dangerously close to the former magic number. Which is why it had to be raised.

And, for the record, the previous week’s numbers have now been revised up for 40 weeks in a row, and 86 out of the last 87 weeks. A fact that no news media out let has ever reported.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, November 1st, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

4 Responses to “New Jobless Claims Fall (NJ And DC Estimated)”

  1. GetBackJack

    People out of work ran out of money to buy gas to get to the office to file the claim

  2. Right of the People

    This is fuzzy logic at its finest. More people got jobs and the unemployment rate goes up???? WTF?

    Of course this administration uses fuzzy logic all the time. Sandy hits New Jersey and they temporarily shut down some refineries and the price of gas goes down???? WTF?

    A tropical storm hits Louisiana and a few refineries cut back production for a day or two and the price goes up????? My head hurts. I think I’ll go now and find a my bottle of Wild Turkey.

  3. canary

    The jobless claims fall do to Christmas part time hiring and hiring Americans because the Mexican illegals all left for the NE coast to work. They hadn’t finished their jobs here yet? lol.

    Oh, but wait. I forgot. Obama has his new Civilian military Homeland Security just trained to go to these disasters.

    But, wait. The news is all saying how people in U.S. aren’t getting food and starving. And many states didn’t have back up generators in place.

    And there’s the group in NYC that want to run a marathon instead of grabbing a shovel.

    And being short lived part-time jobs they aren’t real jobs.

    NJ Chris Christie pushing his nose up Obama’s butt keeping Obama busy making a travel show for his memoirs.




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