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NOAA Did Not Forecast Cold Winter (No One Did)

From an unfazed Businessweek:

The Official Forecast of the U.S. Government Never Saw This Winter Coming

By Peter Coy [sic] | February 18, 2014

… Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states…

“Not one of our better forecasts,” admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center’s acting director. The center grades itself on what it calls the Heidke skill score, which ranges from 100 (perfection) to -50 (monkeys throwing darts would have done better).

October’s forecast for the three-month period of November through January came in at -22. Truth be told, the September prediction for October-December was slightly worse, at -23. The main cause in both cases was the same: Underestimating the mammoth December cold wave, which brought snow to Dallas and chilled partiers in Times Square on New Year’s Eve…

The cause of the tough winter, as is well known by now, is the polar vortex, a strong and persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the west coast of the United States…

What the Climate Prediction Center hasn’t been able to figure out is why that ridge has maintained its position so persistently. “Sometimes trying to figure out why something happened is as hard as making the forecast of what will happen,” Halpert said in a Feb. 14 interview…

It wasn’t just the people at NOAA who didn’t predict this winter. Not one single climate scientist predicted it. Even with all their computer models and untold millions in grants.

And yet we are supposed to believe them when they predict the ravages of global warming — fifty and a hundred years from now.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, February 20th, 2014. Comments are currently closed.

8 Responses to “NOAA Did Not Forecast Cold Winter (No One Did)”

  1. captstubby

    but don’t worry,
    next year at this time, thanks to the magic of electricity, we will have tons of reports that predicted this winters climite change weather.

  2. The Olde Farmer’s Almanac correctly forecast the hard winter. Cheers -

    • Right of the People

      They have for years been making in dead on predictions but the “climate scientists” always pooh-pooh their predictions because they don’thave billions of dollars worth of computers and instruments. We’ve been buying the Almanac for years and don’t even bother with the Weather Channel or the local weather guessing twinkies.

  3. canary

    Fact: The Farmers Almanac predicted we would have more cold weather this winter than in a while.

    • captstubby

      “climate scientists” always pooh-pooh their predictions ”

      Uh-oh: Farmers’ Almanac predicts a nasty 2013-2014 winter
      the almanac is “red-flagging” the first 10 days of February “for possible heavy winter weather.”

      By
      John Platt
      Mother Nature Network

      Tue, Aug 27, 2013
      “So what exactly is the Almanac predicting for this winter? New England, New York and most of Pennsylvania will experience a bitterly cold and snow-filled season. The mid-Atlantic states will be cold, wet and blanketed in white. The Southeast will be chilly and wet all winter. Texas and other Southern states will experience frost and above-average dampness. Illinois and the surrounding states will have “biting cold” and snow. The Midwest will see “piercing cold” with normal snowfall. The Pacific Northwest will see a dry and chilly year. The one good region in the predictions is California, Nevada and Arizona, which will see a season of cool with near-normal precipitation….
      So you might want to take the Farmers’ Almanac predictions with a grain of salt.”
      As the Washington Post’s Jason Samenow wrote in the Capital Weather Gang blog, “no one — with any degree of accuracy ‚ can predict the specific days when cold snaps or storms will occur months in advance.”

      can i quote you guys on that last statment?

      http://www.mnn.com/earth-matte.....014-winter

  4. I prepared for Winter along about Nov. 20. As usual, I was right. It got colder as the sun went South and then the days got shorter and I had to turn the lights on earlier and earlier!! But don’y worry. I’ve mathematically proved that the world is wobbling back the other way and the days are getting a little longer.

    My dogs think I’m a genius. Maybe that’s what academics and politicians are .. walking talking dogs.

    /woof

  5. yadayada

    am I getting too old/cynical, or does it seem like the media reports EVERYTHING today as being bigger (or smaller), hotter (or colder), wetter (or dryer),most (or least), or more severe than anything ever before it?

    OMG !!!! it snowed in FEBRUARY !! what will we do ?? that’s never happened before !
    liberal experts’ advice – “stay home! don’t go outside for any reason! don’t leave your house unless you absolutely must!”
    liberal response – “woo hoo! snow day!
    normal conservative American – “I’ll leave 15 minutes early to go to work.”

    “the rain beats down so hard, it makes your head bleed!” – Sir Raleigh

    “so, some sort of hat is probably in order then.” – Black Adder

    • captstubby

      this is the liberal experts’ agenda to indoctrinate the Young and Bumper Sticker crowd in modifying their reasoning process.
      tune in in every day for Instructions.
      but to be honest, maybe it would be safer for them to stay home, get out of the way, for lack of common sense and no driving skills.
      “more severe than anything ever before it?”
      was actually the opposite where our parents were concerned.

      long age, at the supper table, my older brothers and i were complaining about the cold going to school.
      Mom would then tell us how it was colder and more snow on her 2 mile walk to school.
      big brother Dave ( the biggest wise ass of us all) stopped her and asked,”why didn’t you take the stagecoach?”
      guess who did the dish’s that night.
      .


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