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NYT: Independents, Women Still Like Obama

From an ebullient New York Times:

President Recapturing Groups Won by G.O.P. in 2010

March 12, 2012

While President Obama is locked in a tight race for re-election, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll found him faring well against the top Republican candidates among some important groups that abandoned Congressional Democrats in 2010.

Among all registered voters, Mr. Obama had a three-point edge over Mitt Romney and a four-point advantage over Rick Santorum, differences that are within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Independents are the quintessential swing voters, and election results often hinge on them. In 2008, a majority of them supported Mr. Obama, according to exit polls, helping to fuel his victory. But in 2010, they helped hand Republicans control of the House of Representatives, supporting them over Democratic candidates by 19 points.

In the latest poll, 49 percent of independents said they favored Mr. Obama, compared with 41 percent for Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama leads Mr. Santorum by 10 points among independents.

Where are the excuses for the volatility of polls now? Where is the mention of only sampling a 1,000 adults?

The president’s edge among independents is largely due to women. Independent men split closely between Mr. Obama and the leading Republican candidates. But independent women said they preferred Mr. Obama by double digits.

“They take a stand on keeping big government out of our lives, but then they want government to take over our private lives,” Mary Butler, an independent from Gansevoort, N.Y., said about the Republicans in a follow-up interview. “It bothers me that with so many problems and issues in this world, the Republican candidates can only focus on religious issues.”

Right. All the Republican candidates have talked about the last six months is "religious issues."

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted March 7 to 11 with 878 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters but larger for subgroups.

For the record this is a subsection of today’s other New York Times/CBS poll of 1,009 adults nationwide. In which there were 878 registered voters. Of that number Republicans = 268, Democrats = 296. Which comes to a total of 564 voters. Which means they sampled at least 314 ‘registered’ independents.

All of which seem to be pretty small numbers for a national poll.

Also, the sampling breaks down to 30.5% Republicans, 33.7% Democrats and 35.8% registered Independents. Is that really the political make-up of the country when it comes to registered voters?

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, March 13th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

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