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NYT: Outlook On Economy Is Brightening

From a suddenly ever optimistic New York Times:

Outlook on Economy Is Brightening, New Poll Finds


April 7, 2009

Americans have grown more optimistic about the economy and the direction of the country in the 11 weeks since President Obama was inaugurated, suggesting that he is enjoying some success in his critical task of rebuilding the nation’s confidence, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

These sometimes turbulent weeks — marked by new initiatives by Mr. Obama, attacks by Republicans and more than a few missteps by the White House — do not appear to have hurt the president. Americans said they approved of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, Iraq and Afghanistan; fully two-thirds said they approved of his overall job performance.

By contrast, just 31 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Republican Party, the lowest in the 25 years the question has been asked in New York Times/CBS News polls.

It is not unusual for new presidents to enjoy a period of public support. Still, the durability of Mr. Obama’s support contrasts with that of some of his predecessors at the same point in their terms. It is also striking at a time when anxiety has gripped households across the country and Mr. Obama has alternately sought to rally Americans’ spirits and warn against economic collapse as he seeks Congressional support for his programs…

For all that, the number of people who said they thought the country was headed in the right direction jumped from 15 percent in mid-January, just before Mr. Obama took office, to 39 percent today, while the number who said it was headed in the wrong direction dropped to 53 percent from 79 percent. That is the highest percentage of Americans who said the country was headed in the right direction since 42 percent said so in February 2005, the second month of President George W. Bush’s second term.

The percentage of people who said the economy was getting worse has declined from 54 percent just before Mr. Obama took office to 34 percent today. And 20 percent now think the economy is getting better, compared with 7 percent in mid-January…

With the poll finding that an overwhelming number think the recession will last a year or more, Mr. Obama may find he has a deep well of patience to draw on. The poll found that he shoulders virtually none of the public blame for the economic crisis: 33 percent blame Mr. Bush, 21 percent blame financial institutions, and 11 percent blame Congress.

By more than three to one, voters said they trusted Mr. Obama more than they trusted Congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about the economy. And by more than two to one, they said they trusted Mr. Obama to keep the nation safe, typically a Republican strong suit. Nearly one-quarter of Republicans said they trusted Mr. Obama more than Congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about the economy.

“As far as acting like adults and getting things done, the Democrat Party has done better,” said Rachel Beeson, an independent from Wahiawa, Hawaii. “The Republican Party seems to have decided that they are going to turn down anything that comes out of the White House, and nothing will get done that way.”

The national telephone poll was conducted with 998 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points…

How hilarious that the New York Times thinks that anyone would believe this.

(Click to enlarge)

Of course, as always, they had to oversample Democrats to get the results they wanted.

And we won’t even mention the “independents” these polls always find, like Ms. Beeson.

But even so, what evidence is there anywhere to indicate that the country is suddenly on the right track?

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, April 7th, 2009. Comments are currently closed.

19 Responses to “NYT: Outlook On Economy Is Brightening”

  1. Reality Bytes says:

    Look more like a line for American Idol.

    How much you wanna bet the 2 in the front of the line were planted by the photographer?!

  2. Jean says:

    Saturday night I went to dinner with a close friend of mine…I still consider him a close friend, but his conversation scared me. His eyes practically glazed over as he effused over Obama. “He’s just the best…so cool, so amazing…” It was like listening to a 12-year-old girl talk about Zac Efron.

    I honestly never thought this country would become like this, with millions of brainwashed citizens soaking up celebrity-worshipping media rhetoric and spitting it slavishly back out as their own “original thoughts.” An opportunity has emerged for me to relocate to another country later this year. At no time in my life before would I have considered living somewhere else, but I am now considering it…very seriously. Thanks, MSM.

  3. Reality Bytes says:

    “Yeah, but there was too much excess. We had to do something” – An architect told me.

    “True. Some people are just greedy by nature, especially in good times. But, if stemming opportunity is your idea of stopping them, keep in mind you’re also going to hurt the guy & gal who’s just trying to get by.”

    You should have seen the slack jaw “Oh My God. You Might Be Right” look on this “professionals” face!

    BTW – she went to Columbia.

  4. proreason says:

    I just checked with Mom.

    She told me that 97% of the country loves me like a brother. And they think I’m a genius, as well as very good looking. And that Angelina Jolie will soon return my emails.

  5. Odie44 says:

    I am searching high and low – but an economist did an overlay of CCI and real GDP. (Maybe Col can help me out)

    There is an inverse reaction , you know like when 3.5% GDP growth and 4M new jobs were perceived as “bad”. He goes to show that it really doesnt mean anything to a true economy, due to the manipulation of outlets telling people what they should believe. Sales, mall traffic, tourism, credit/debt ratio, etc. let you know whats going on.

    Peter Lynch – the famed asset manager (Fidelity) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Lynch used to track Disney gate sales and mall shopping bags as a hard indicator of what the country’s economic pulse was. Not a perfect man (note the SEC fine from 2002-2004), but truly believed in simplicity over confusion in economics. 29.2% rate of return for the Magellan Fund – from 1977-1990.

    This chart is nothing more than a bogus manipulation of the masses of asses, over sampled to the left.

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Have not seen the CCI/GDP overylay – will search around.

      But I’m with you, how could anyone be surprised at the manipulation of the masses? Remember the meme during the last year or so – worst since the great depression – is now ‘signs of economic recovery’.

      I do believe we will be out of the recession by the end of the third quarter of ’09, for what that’s worth and have been preaching that for some time. And it’s based solely on the historic length of these retractions – no fancy mathematics or Latin involved. ;-)

    • proreason says:

      I did a study of Lynch’s market returns once. I think he is the most successful investor of all time, by far.

      Most good track records are easily explainable by normal probability. if 1,000,000 monkeys flip coins 10 times, 1 will flip heads 10 times in a row.

      But Lynch’s returns were so much better than what probability would predict that he clearly wasn’t playing by a playbook that anybody else had…..and absolutely could not be explained as a Random Walk. (even taking into consideration that non-Fortune 500 stocks had fantasitc returns during Lynch’s career.

      Buffet is a different story. He clearly has been very successful, but he was 1/20th as diversified as Lynch, and frequently took a management role in his investments. I think his success is probably due to a mixture of very good luck intensified by lack of diversification, a very good underlying strategy, and good management instincts. Curiously, Buffet has taken huge losses during the Droolers financial meltdown. His eyes must have been glazed over with liberal fervor for deadbeat lending, since he surely knew the probably end-game with all that.

      Lynch beats Buffet by a mile, imho.

    • Odie44 says:

      Col –

      Our past “dust ups” require fancy math and Latin… wth am I to do now??? lol.

      Serious question (I have my serious look on now) – do you think the TARP 1/2 and massive defecit/budget numbers will skew the Q3 09 rebound? I barely got through the latest Newsweek and couldn’t make heads or tales from 5 contributors, ranging from Wharton – Harvard – Carnegie Mellon, economic experts as to when they believe, with said Trillions adding in – as to the recovery.

      I have felt all along the hysteria was overblown to jam the agenda down our throats through fear, and then take claim for the “recovery”. I polled over 45 retail stores in the Atlanta and Destin markets (face to face with managers who were willing to talk – I am in consumer marketing) with most (39) saying sales were the same or better than last year and 6 saying worse. Some of the best – Macy’s, Bloomingdales, Target… and in an article 3 or 4 weeks ago that SG posted – Q1 earnings estimates were all better for 12 companies, than analysts expected, sans 1…

      What say you?

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Buffet has ‘jumped the shark’, much like Gates. Socialism sneaks it’s way into the craniums of the uber-rich under the guise of guilt – even though these two have made it themselves. Buffet by working, thinking, buying. Gates is just glad that IBM didn’t see the need to keep its’ rights to the code…

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Odie: lol, re: dust-ups.

      Spot-on about driving it down to take credit for the recovery. Totally planned. Of course, the masses, and sadly lots of well-educated folks can’t (or don’t want to) grasp economics – GHWB was right – it’s mainly voodoo!

      From what I hear, there is going to be some very bad news, re: the toxic asset valuations, on the street in the next few weeks that will put a major damper on the party for a few weeks or a little longer, i.e., a great time to get into (or back into) the market. After that, the waters will calm and people will see that while the recession was real, it was mild, money will flow and we’ll gently make our way back to a 3-5% annual GDP.

      How we pay back the Trillions, social security, et cetera is above my pay grade…

    • Odie44 says:

      Col –

      It is now PC brainwashing to drop “toxic assets” and replace it with “legacy assets”. Another fine indication of the manipulation that occurred from Bambi and the MSM.

      I tend to agree, me and the wife are holding steady – namely in money market accounts and have bought a few CD’s. Luckily – we are USAA members and get an amazing rate, compared to to others – across the board. Since my broker/asset management days – I tend to only put no more than 10% in growth equity. I am just fine with a net 3-4% yearly rate of return after taxes and write downs.

      The intentional complexity of forecasting is best summed up with the baffon Harry S Dent who wrote “Roaring 2000’s DOW 35,000” back in the 90’s. He has now penned the opposite book, 10+ years later and a few trillion gone “The Great Depression Ahead”. SunAmerica used to send this to potential clients (financial planners) and of course would state “this is not an indication of future performance” in .06 font…

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Odie: not sure when this was released, but this may have been what my guy was referring to, vis-a-vis toxic assets and the short-term ‘adjustment’:


      PR: great news about your Mom’s poll – and good luck with Angelina. Keep me posted…

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Another bank / stock market update, similar to the above discussion…


  6. dulcimergrl says:

    I guess those of us who disagree with this poll haven’t yet been taken over by pod people. Keep fighting it, people! Just don’t go to sleep!

  7. oki2 says:

    Speaking of which, today on the radio, another survey said that President Obama has a 66% approval rating. Who do they ask for these polls? That’s what I want to know.

    • Odie44 says:

      Damage control Oki2.

      The failure of his recent Euro-Islam tour (unless you count fashion, food tasting and America bashing) did not go well and the Der Speigal and AFP are reporting Sarkozy, Merkle, Brown, etc are not happy he thrust his “arrogant American opinion” as to Turkey and the EU.


      You know how bad this moron is doing, based on the speed of an opinion poll released through their friendly , complicate CBS/NYT outlets…

    • Colonel1961 says:

      Mainly democrats. And don’t forget, this is about as accurate as your new Census will be…

    • proreason says:

      oki2: “Who do they ask for these polls?”

      They ask whoever they need to get the results they want.

      The information from public polls is useless except when the question is understood the same way by everybody, which eliminates almost everything except a poll about who the pollee will vote for. For an election, interpretation of that question is minimal. (of course, those polls can still be manipulated by the “adjustments” dishonest pollsters make, purportedly to adjust for demographics, but in reality, more often to adjust to get an answer closer to the pollster’s bias.)

      Once a “question” is formulated, the poll is open season for manipulation by the pollster, the media and the consumer. That’s why they are useless.

      But to be clear, I’m not criticizing the theory behind polls. I believe the theory is solid. And I think private polls can be very useful. The reason is that with a private poll, the party that conducts the poll has no reason to distort the results. In fact, they have every reason to insure the poll is accurate.

      But to think the Slimes poll is accurate would be the height of stupidity. It’s exactly as accurate as the “reporting’ the Slimes did about Iraq.

  8. BannedbytheTaliban says:

    Not a surprise. People are expected to glaze over with approval of the actions of the antichrist. Most people who I have met that approve of Obama are not what I would consider to have faith, and then again, I am not the one to judge. Each day it seems more and more like he is the antichrist. A one world government/regime, one world economy, one world currency, he is even calling for the two state solution in Israel. If he signs a peace treaty with Israel I will be convinced.

    I’m going to start calling him DOTUS, Deceiver of the Untied States. He may not be the full blown antichrist, but deceiver is apt.

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