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NYT: Walker Win Means Romney Will Lose WI

From where else but the New York Times:

Governors’ Races Can Be a Contrary Indicator for Presidential Elections

By NATE SILVER
June 5, 2012

The results of the recall election in Wisconsin on Tuesday night may tell us something about the future of the labor movement and the salience of collective bargaining rights as an issue to swing voters. A win by Gov. Scott Walker, who is ahead in the polls, might make other Republican governors who have sought to pare collective bargaining, like John Kasich of Ohio, breathe a little easier when they come up for election again.

But one thing that the recall is unlikely to do is tell us much about how the presidential contest in Wisconsin is likely to evolve in November. The politics for a governor’s campaign are often subject to different currents than presidential ones, and historically the party identification of a state’s governor has said little about how presidential candidates will fare there.

Over the past 40 years, in fact, the relationship has run in the reverse direction than you might expect. The Democratic presidential candidate has typically done a little better when the state’s governor is a Republican, and vice versa…

Isn’t that handy? Would we have been treated to such a splendid in-depth analysis from the New York Times if Govenor Walker had lost?

In 7 of the 10 elections since 1972, the Democratic candidate actually did slightly better in states with Republican governors, while Republican candidates did better in states with Democratic ones. The difference has been profound in some years, like 1972, 1984 and 1996.

In other years the differences have been more modest, or have run in the more intuitive direction. In 2008, for example, President Obama won states with Democratic governors by an average of about 10 points, against a 3-point margin in states with Republican ones.

Still, in the past 10 presidential elections as a whole, the presidential candidate has done a point or two better when the governor of the state is of the opposite party…

Notice that all of this conjecture is based on the supposedly stunning fact that in 7 of the 10 elections since 1972, the Democratic candidate actually did slightly better in states with Republican governors. Even though this wasn’t even the case in 2008, when Obama did better in states with Democrat governors. And, I strongly suspect it has not been true in elections prior to 1972. But why let such data get in the way of another straw that can be clutched?

Still, isn’t it hilarious what contortions the New York Times and the rest of the Democrat Media Complex will go through to try to find a ray of sunshine in all of this terrible Walker news?

Of course, what The NYT is really saying here is ‘don’t waste your money on trying to win in Wisconsin, Mr. Romney.’ In fact, Silver actually spells it out in his final paragraphs:

The Romney or Obama campaigns could either react to the recall results by putting more resources into Wisconsin or by pulling them out. Those choices affect the outcome in November

However, Wisconsin may not be as close to the electoral tipping point as other states like Ohio, Colorado or Virginia, where state polls are tracking the national numbers more precisely. Resources spent in Wisconsin could trade-off with those in these states, where a victory might be more likely to flip the entire election.

Isn’t that subtle? Like a sledgehammer.

Let’s hope the Romney campaign is not taking advice from the New York Times.

This article was posted by Steve on Wednesday, June 6th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

One Response to “NYT: Walker Win Means Romney Will Lose WI”

  1. This is a prime example of what happens when “playing the game” is seen as a win.

    “Its OK that your team got beat 142-2 honey, you sure played a GREAT GAME!”

    Bwahahahaha


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