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Obama And Romney Tied In Poll Of +7% Dems

From the National Journal:

Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters

By Shane Goldmacher | October 2, 2012

President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll…

Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead.

And for likely voters the National Journal oversampled Democrats by 7% (Dem/Rep/Ind = 36/29/30%).

In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters

We are not told how much the National Journal oversampled Democrats for their registered voters poll. But it must have been considerably to get that big of a lead.

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties…

So, once again, Romney has an 8% lead among Independents. Which only tells us that the pollsters are going to have to find a way to skew the Independents.

But this poll gets pretty silly:

Asked why unemployment remains so high, a 53 percent majority blamed “fighting between Democrats and Republicans [that] has blocked needed government action.” …

Sure that’s the problem.

Much of official Washington has been frozen in conflict since Republicans were swept into the House in 2010, with Democrats controlling the Senate and Obama occupying the White House…

After nearly two years of GOP rule in the House, voters believe that Democratic leaders in Congress are more likely to “genuinely seek compromise with a president from the other party.”

Forty-five percent of voters said Democratic leaders were more likely to compromise, while 31 percent said Republicans were, and 8 percent volunteered that neither party was more likely to do so…

Because we saw the Democrats ‘compromise’ so often during the first two years of the Obama administration.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

5 Responses to “Obama And Romney Tied In Poll Of +7% Dems”

  1. GetBackJack

    November 07 results

    Romney 67%
    Obama 31%
    Other Candidates 2%

  2. dasher

    Steve – I see you very often fighting the fight of oversampling Democrats in polls. In one recent argument I read, the pollsters are oversampling Democrats because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Thus, the pollsters argue that the oversampling is representative of the population. Is your argument with the oversampling that the sampling should be completely evenly split 33/33/33 in order to get a truly representative view of the mood of voters?

    I mean, I can clearly see your argument, but does their oversampling argument hold any water? ARE there indeed more registered Democrats than Republicans? I thought the majority of the country considered itself more conservative than liberal. Then again, does it really matter? There’s obviously a liberal vote for Obama and a conservative vote for Romney, it’s those “undecided” independent voters (loved the SNL skit about the Undecideds).

    Or, upon thinking while writing this, is your argument that the pollsters are skewing the numbers to get the headlines they want, plain and simple, without much reference in the article to the polling sample size?

  3. Reality Bytes

    Using “Mr. President” or “Pres. Obama” will show he’s 4x too small for the job!!!

  4. dasher

    @ Steve – thanks for the link and clarification. I have a blast arguing with my younger brother, who is so liberal I sometimes think we must have different parents! Keep up the great work, I so enjoy keeping an eye on MSM misrepresentation and bias via S & L.

    Dan
    Atlanta, GA




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