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Obama Campaign: Gallup Poll Is Deeply Flawed

From ABC News:

Obama Campaign Slams New Swing State Poll

By Mary Bruce | Mon October 15, 2012

The Obama campaign today blasted the latest battleground state polling that finds Mitt Romney with a five point lead among likely voters, saying the Gallup/USA Today poll has “deep flaws.”

“Gallup’s data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters,” Obama’s pollster Joel Benenson wrote in a memo.

The survey of 12 key swing states finds Romney pulling ahead thanks to increased enthusiasm from women voters, a demographic that both campaigns have targeted aggressively. President Obama and the GOP nominee are tied 48 percent to 48 percent among women who are likely voters, the poll found.

“We believe the problem with Gallup’s outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results,” Benenson wrote.

“In the past, Gallup’s justification for such outlying numbers is that they are providing a snapshot of voter attitudes during a particular time period, not predicting the outcome of the election. But this implausible result among women appears to not even provide an accurate reflection on the electorate today, making its value questionable,” he said…

There they go again. Lest we forget, back in April Axelrod complained that a Gallup poll showing Romney with a 48-43% lead over Obama was “saddled with some methodological problems.” And the Obama campaign leaned on Gallup to change it methodology to include more minorities.

Gallup refused to do so. That is, until the DOJ joined a lawsuit against Gallup that was brought by a former Gallup employee and former Obama campaign organizer. Then, as the Huffington Post revealed, Gallup did change its methodology to include more blacks.

Unfortunately, even that does not seem to be enough to help the Obama campaign now. So now they were leaning on Gallup to make even further changes to help Obama.

By the way, less than a month ago Mr. Benenson and the rest of the Obama campaign were mocking Republicans for complaining about Gallup’s method of oversampling Democrats.

From the Washington Post:

Obama pollster rips Romney camp’s version of electorate as a`fantasy’

By Greg Sargent | September 25, 2012

The Romney campaign is joining the ranks of supporters who have decided that major national polls show Romney losing only because the samples are overly weighted with Dems. Romney pollster Neil Newhouse insists that public polling averages are “skewed,” and that the 2012 electorate will not show the same minority and Dem base composition as the 2008 one did.

But in an interview with me, Obama campaign pollster Joel Benenson mocked the idea that the electorate will diverge meaningfully from that of 2008 as as delusional.

“The notion that this electorate isn’t going to be as diverse as it was is frankly a fantasy,” Benenson said…

Benenson also noted that the electorate has, in fact, tilted Democratic by single digits in a number of recent presidential elections.

The Romney campaign has repeatedly pointed to the Gallup tracking poll as evidence that the race is still close. Pressed on the Romney camp’s Gallup argument, Benenson said: “I understand that the Romney campaign feels that they need to talk about the public polls. We don’t.” …

But that was then and this is now.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Tuesday, October 16th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

7 Responses to “Obama Campaign: Gallup Poll Is Deeply Flawed”

  1. Helena

    “I understand that the Romney campaign feels that they need to talk about the public polls. We don’t.” – Joel Benenson

    You’ve got to love these guys. And admire them. It is remarkably tricky to talk out of both sides of your mouth at the same time. Who said Vaudeville was dead? When things are going their way, they’re so condescending they’re positively regal. But when the shoe is on the other foot they sniff and whine and threaten law suits.

  2. mr_bill

    I’m convinced that the left lives in a permanent fantasy land. Everything that isn’t helpful to electing nerobama is declared to be “lies” by the left. Any poll showing Romney leading is “false.” Any fact, statistic, event, or circumstance that might make nerobama look bad is dismissed as trivial or a complete fabrication, yet when nerobama ties his own shoe laces, we’re forced to hear how wonderfully skillful he is. It makes me want to find a nice, quiet place to vomit.

  3. Right of the People

    I’m thinking about petitioning the AMA to declare liberalism a mental disorder. I think maybe shock therapy might be the required treatment.

  4. Anonymoose

    Whoa Nellie! I thought only Republicans were the ones complaining about biased polls which perpetually oversampled Democrats. Now that the tide has turned–and with good reason–suddenly it’s flawed? Pot-Kettle-Black…..oh wait that’s racist.

  5. bousquem25

    I never trust polls as Mark Twain once said “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics” Anyone can manipulate a poll or research study or anything else if they stack the deck enough in favor of their position.The Obama camp and the left seem to think that any poll that does not show them winning by a huge margin is riddled with errors and not be trusted. Worse, they seem to like to strong arm the pollsters with lawsuits unitl they get what they want the polls to say.

  6. canary

    But, Gallop followed the methods David Axelrod showed them to prevent a lawsuit by the Obama camp.

    The only reason to ignore the polls is some states are letting anyone with a residence vote.


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