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Obama’s Job Approval Fell 7 Points In 3 Days

From CNS News:

Gallup: Obama’s Job Approval Drops 7 Points in 3 Days

By Terence P. Jeffrey
October 27, 2012

(CNSNews.com) – In the most precipitous decline it has seen in more than a year, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has dropped 7 points in three days, according to Gallup.

In the three-day period ending on Oct. 23, says Gallup, 53 percent said they approved of the job Obama was doing and 42 percent said they did not.

On Oct. 24, that dropped to 51 percent who said they approved and 44 percent who said they do not.

On Oct. 25, it dropped again to 48 percent who said they approved and 47 percent who said they do not.

On Oct. 26, it dropped yet again to 46 percent who said they approved and 49 percent who said they did not…

On the other had Mitt Romney has been at 50% approval or above in Gallup’s approval poll for 13 days in a row. And Romney has been at 50% or better for 6 straight days according to Rasmussen.

For the record, at this hour Gallup has Obama’s approval/disapproval rate at 48%/48%.

Lest we forget, the 50 percent threshold is historically important, as Gallup’s managing editor, Jeffrey M. Jones, pointed out back in August:

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election — George W. Bush and Harry Truman — won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

By the way, George W. Bush’s approval rating was never this low at this period in the campaign. In Gallup’s Oct. 22-24, 2004, tracking period, Bush’s approval-to-disapproval split was 51%/46%.

But remember how much the news media talked about Bush’s low approval ratings during his term? But were not hearing so much about it with Obama. Why is that?

And, for the record, Gallup seems to be once again changing their methodology to suit Axelrod. (Which could explain why Romney’s numbers are going down slightly.)

From Gallup:

2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008

Composition of electorate by race, age, gender essentially the same

By Jeffrey M. Jones | Fri October 26, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ — The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004, according to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1. Thus, key elements of President Obama’s electoral coalition, such as racial minorities, women, young adults, and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008

Who believes that?

Gallup identifies likely voters using a series of seven questions that ask about current voting intentions and past voting behavior. The resulting sample of likely voters has proven to give a generally accurate prediction of the final election outcome. For example, in 2004, Gallup’s final likely voter estimate (before undecideds were allocated to the candidates) showed George W. Bush with a two-percentage-point advantage over John Kerry in an election Bush won by just over two points. And Gallup’s final 2008 estimate showed Barack Obama outpolling John McCain by 11 points, a slight overestimate of Obama’s seven-point margin of victory…

In fact, Obama only won by 7%. 11% is quite a huge error, and made Gallup one of the least accurate polls in 2008. (They were the fourth from the bottom of 23 polls.)

In any case, Gallup says things still look bad for Obama:

At this point, though, Gallup Daily tracking of likely voter preferences suggests Obama has lost more support than he could afford to, given his current 50% to 47% deficit to his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. To close that gap in the final weeks of the campaign, Obama would need to have subgroups favorable to him, such as blacks or young adults, turn out at rates that match or exceed those of groups less favorable to him, or to increase his support among key subgroups even if their turnout remains the same.

Gallup seems to be saying it’s going to be hard for Obama to win, even though his turnout will be like it was in 2008. Which seems to be a contradiction to us. In any case, it seems like Gallup is once again bowing to Axelrod and saying they are going to oversample Democrats like it is still 2008.

This article was posted by Steve on Monday, October 29th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

5 Responses to “Obama’s Job Approval Fell 7 Points In 3 Days”

  1. Rickuh says:

    I think Gallup is saying that; though turnout for these groups will be comparable to 2008, some groups, i.e. women, will break for Romney.

  2. Mithrandir says:

    Gallup is also saying:
    1. We are changing our poll to match the actual numbers now that the election is getting close.
    2. We are trying to keep up with the accuracy of other pollsters.
    3. Telling us the obvious and self-evident truth that Obama has the same brain-dead zombies voting for him, as all democrats do in any election.

    The Republican base is fired up, the democrat base has Obama-fatigue, and the independents are going to swing Republican this time, just as dramatically as they voted in 2008.

    Romney could accumulated 300+ electoral votes and slam dunk Obama all the way back to Indonesia, if he went after the Libertarian vote, and rubbed salt in the wound of those sour Hillary supporters who would love to see Obama get run out of office, as payback.

    But foresight is 20/20 isn’t it?

  3. GetBackJack says:

    Wait’ll the public finds out Obama set up Amb. Stevens to be kidnapped so Obama could trade the blind shreik and mollify the Muslim Brotherhood.

  4. Petronius says:

    They’re going to need more buses. And a lot more Somalis.


  5. Anonymoose says:

    What’s happening is as that early on the polls showed the people who were most vocal and would never change their views, and no surprise most of them are Obama supporters.

    But as the election draws closer two groups of people are making their voices heard. One is the “undecideds” who really never were undecided–they just don’t care about daily politics and only speak their minds as the election draws near.

    The other is people who don’t want to step into the viper pit of liberals and end up being called racist or having their car or house vandalized for daring to oppose Obama. These are the ones who don’t trust the pollsters and until it looked like Romney had a chance haven’t wanted to speak up.

    The supporters of Obama have from the very beginning been scary in their militancy, but I think it shows the true nature of liberalism; as the goal comes close to toss off the mask and show their true selves. What I find concerning in this election is the all out push for early voting–supposedly to make sure everyone gets to vote who possibly can–but does anything they do at this point serve an honest purpose?

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