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O’Donnell Better Off With Castle Write-In

From those insiders at the Congressional Quarterly:

O’Donnell Better Off With Castle on the Ballot

By Steve Peoples, CQ-Roll Call – Mon Sep 27, 2010

As Rep. Michael N. Castle (R) ponders a write-in campaign for Delaware’s open Senate seat, it became clear Monday that there’s more at stake than his political legacy.

A Rasmussen Reports poll found that a Castle write-in bid could breathe new life into the candidacy of GOP nominee Christine O’Donnell, the tea-party-backed conservative pundit who has been widely dismissed as too conservative to win the general election

According to the poll, a Castle write-in candidacy would derive its support most directly from supporters of Democratic hopeful Chris Coons. The poll found Castle would cut into Coons’ support by at least 5 percent, potentially more, turning a likely blowout for Democrats into a more competitive contest.

The survey of 500 likely Delaware voters on Sunday gave Coons 49 percent, compared with 40 percent for O’Donnell and 5 percent for a Castle write-in, according to Rasmussen, which became the first polling firm to survey the effect of a Castle write-in campaign. The 9-point difference between Coons and O’Donnell is a far cry from the 15-point or larger disadvantage reported by three separate public polls earlier in the month.

Which, of course, is just as we foretold.

"Castle has not indicated that he will run a write-in campaign and it is likely that his support could increase if he were to do so," the Rasmussen findings noted. "Rasmussen Reports did ask Castle supporters who they would vote for in a two-person race and virtually all said either Coons or not sure."

Castle has until Thursday afternoon to make a decision

"You’re talking about a remote possibility at this point," he told Delaware’s News Journal in a front-page article that appeared Monday…

Run, Castle, run! Do it for our country!

This year, of course, there may be three [write in candidates running]: Alaska, Florida and Delaware, should Castle launch a write-in bid…

Putting aside some messy races during the Southern Realignment, the few competitive three-way Senate elections before 1980 took place in New York, where election rules allow candidates to secure ballot placement with third parties relatively easily, according to political science professor Gary Jacobson of the University of California, San Diego, who has studied Congressional elections for four decades.

Those three-party elections, as was the case with [Jacob] Javits, usually benefited Republicans

As will all three this year.

This article was posted by Steve on Monday, September 27th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

5 Responses to “O’Donnell Better Off With Castle Write-In”

  1. proreason says:

    Ol pro was the first to fearlessly predict 100 new Repubs in the House. Now Dick Morris is pushing it.

    Now I’m fecklessly predicting a victory by the lovely Christine O’Donnell.

    She can do it if she performs adequately in the debates……and she has spent much of her adult life in the public eye, so it might well happen.

    As more and more people go public with their hatred of the Obamy marxist thugs, it gives cover to the many millions who have been afraid to speak up because they have been thoroughly intimidated about being called racists. When you realize you are in a 70% majority, you feel somewhat insulated from the slurs of the 5% minority.

    The wild cards are the October surprise(s)….which are beginning to look less likely, since there are only a few weeks left…..and voter fraud, which will probably turn dozens of races that otherwise would go to conservative candidates.

  2. mr_bill says:

    I’m still not believing these polls showing these Tea Party candidates running slightly behind. The democrats are oversampled (always) and convervatives would have to be sampled in a 2:1 ratio with democrats to keep up with the conservative turnout for these elections.

    I can’t wait to see all the dems looking at each other in awe and wondering how some silly “teabagger” candidate suddenly jumped from 9% down to 20% up as the votes are counted. Although, the liberals are believe to notice it, Nero is taking time out of his busy vacation Presidential schedule to campaign and beg Kerry’s uninformed voters for their votes again. With no catchy slogan to entice people, and nothing productive to show for their time in government, I think this will go over like a lead fart.

    • YES.. They are always oversampled. Usually it is the conservatives who are too busy creating wealth for the bourgeois type liberals to steal, to bother answering the “push polling” that produces the margin of error… errors.

  3. Coco Q. Rico says:

    Remember a year ago with those governor races in New Jersey and Virginia? The press was similarly dismissive of both conservative candidates, but they both won.

  4. Mithrandir says:

    ✹RINO TOP 10✹

    RINO Paul Koering, Minnesota’s only elected gay Republican will have a write-in campaign for the state Senate seat he now holds. Koering lost the primary and endorses Democrat Taylor Stevenson.
    RINO Lisa Murkowski will have a write-in campaign for the Alaska Senate seat (her daddy gave her).
    RINO Mike Castle will not support primary winner Christine O’Donnell, may do a write-in campaign.
    ➨Former Republican Karl Rove blasts conservative O’donnell after winning her primary.
    RINO Dede Scozzafava loses N.Y. primary, endorses Democrat Bill Owens.
    RINO General Powell endorsed Democrat Barak Obama.
    RINO Bob Bennett defeated in primary, later ruled out a write-in campaign.
    RINO Will Breazeale loses primary for Congress, endorses Democrat Mike McIntyre.
    RINO Charlie Crist, running as independent against real Republican Marco Rubio.
    RINO Bill McCollum concedes Florida governor’s race but doesn’t endorse Republican Rick Scott.
    RINO Bob Inglis is one of 7 Republicans to rebuke Joe “You lie” Wilson. Lost in primary to Trey Gowdy. Criticized the Tea Party movement, which helped him lose 29% to 71%.

    ✤Dishonorable mention, N.Y. Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a life-long Democrat who switched his registration in 2001 to Republican, won election, then again to Independent.

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