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Pew And Politico: 7% Romney Lead Equals A Tie

From the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press:

In Deadlocked Race, Neither Side Has Ground Game Advantage

Early Voting Also Tied

Released: October 31, 2012

Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin

In fact, Pew’s headline and lead paragraph are untrue. As we will learn later in the article, Romney is actually leading in early voting by 7%.

But Pew has buried that fact, just like Gallup did with their news that Romney was ahead in early voting by 7 points. But Pew didn’t only bury that fact, they lied about it.

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted

It isn’t until the tenth paragraph of this Pew article that we learn:

In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant...

You see? They knew Romney has a seven point edge, but they decided it wasn’t statistically significant. So they just decided to call it a tie. Isn’t it funny how that works? Of course, if Obama were ahead by 7 points, it would never be called "insignificant."

The Polutico tried the same stunt earlier, even after we had the Gallup poll on the 26th which showed otherwise:

From the Politico:

Poll: Neither has edge in early voting

By KEVIN ROBILLARD | Tue October 30, 2012

Fifteen percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Neither candidate has a particular edge among early voters nationally compared to those who will cast their ballots on election day, the Gallup survey found…

Again, this is simply not true. Gallup found that Romney was ahead by 7%, which the Politico grudgingly concedes:

One-third of Barack Obama backers plan to vote early, as do 34 percent of Romney supporters. So far, 15 percent of Obama voters have shown up at the polls, compared to 17 percent of Romney voters. Romney leads among early voters 52 percent to 45 percent, a statistically insignificant difference from the 51 to 46 percent lead Gallup shows him having among all likely voters

And once again, if this lead is so statistically insignificant, why even report it? And why report it as a tie?

We know why, of course.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, November 1st, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

2 Responses to “Pew And Politico: 7% Romney Lead Equals A Tie”

  1. GetBackJack

    Pew = corruption

    Don’t make me trot out my evidence again

  2. Right of the People

    +–You see? They knew Romney has a seven point edge, but they decided it wasn’t statistically significant. So they just decided to call it a tie. Isn’t it funny how that works? Of course, if Obama were ahead by 7 points, it would never be called “insignificant.”–”

    True dat, they’d be calling in insurmountable.


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