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Poll: Most GOP Oppose Brokered Convention

From USA Today:

Poll: Republican voters oppose a ‘brokered’ convention

By Susan Page, USA TODAY
February 21, 2012

WASHINGTON – While most Republicans wish they had different choices in the party’s presidential field, a nationwide USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds overwhelming resistance to the idea of an old-styled brokered convention that would pick some new contender as the nominee.

Who doesn’t like to have more choices? Unfortunately, that is probably not going to happen at this point.

By 66%-29%, the Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed say it would be better if one of the four candidates now running managed to secure enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

They probably should not have polled "Republican-leaning independents."

Most are happy to see their roller-coaster campaign continue: 57% say the battle isn’t hurting the party.

And according to the findings below, regarding the two top contenders gaining against Obama, it isn’t.

Meanwhile, President Obama’s standing against two potential Republican rivals has ebbed a bit. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads the president 50%-46% among registered voters, Romney’s strongest showing against him to date. Obama edges former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum by a single percentage point, 49%-48%.

In other words, both Romney and Santorum have gained on Obama. Meanwhile, the news media is telling us that the primary race is hurting the GOP.

The poll, taken Thursday through Sunday, illustrates the battle between head-and-heart for many Republican voters: Santorum is the current favorite, leading Romney 50%-44% in a one-on-one contest.

In the separate daily Gallup Poll of the entire Republican field, Santorum’s lead over Romney grew Monday to 10 percentage points, 36%-26%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 13% and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 11%.

That is amazing. But notice that this latter poll is not just Republicans. So a more Democrats and ‘Independents’ could be pulling for Santorum.

But Romney is seen as the stronger competitor against Obama and as the likely nominee. By nearly 2-1, 58%-32%, Republican partisans say Romney has a better chance of winning in November than Santorum does

But what is especially weird about this ‘Republican only’ poll is that Santorum is ahead of Romney by 6% . And yet a vast majority of Republicans, nearly 2-1 (58%-32%), say Romney has a better chance of winning in November than Santorum does.

Has that ever happened before in primary history?

Most believe Romney eventually will emerge as the nominee: 31% call that very likely, 54% somewhat likely. Just 13% say Romney probably won’t be nominated

The findings come as Romney, who is fighting to avoid catastrophe, now trails Santorum in Michigan, which holds its primary next week. A defeat in the state where Romney was born and his father served as governor would weaken his prospects and intensify speculation about some new contender emerging

The current delegate count stands at Romney 105, Santorum 71, Gingrich 29. Michigan has 30 delegates. A candidate will need 1144 delegates to win the nomination.

It’s preposterous for the news media to claim that Michigan is make or break for anyone. But they have to find some way to add drama to the proceedings.

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, February 21st, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

8 Responses to “Poll: Most GOP Oppose Brokered Convention”

  1. P. Aaron says:

    The Dems’ convention is for a broker America.

  2. GetBackJack says:

    Why do I have this creepy goose-pimply feeling that the machine what got GWB elected is slithering around in the background as the Republican Establishment trying to manipulate the process so ol’ Jeb slides right in to claim the Hereditary Fiefdom the Family believes they own?

    • Mithrandir says:

      Yeah, I know that weird feeling too. Another Bush waiting in the wings trying to figure out how to weasel his way into the national scene. –His wife is Hispanic! He speaks Spanish (snapping fingers) by god with the Spanish vote, he/we can’t lose!

      We just need another liberal Republican to give us another David Souter on the Supreme Court, just like Harriet Miers tried to get crowbarred into it. These establishment types are like Spiderman’s enemies; no matter how vanquished they seem to be, they always come back.

  3. artboyusa says:

    It can only be called an open convention if by “open” you mean “closed” to anyone except whichever amiable dolt the GOP Ruling Class determines to foist upon us now.

    Their dolt of choice, the apparently-not-so-“electable -after-all Willard, has failed to live up to even the minimal expectations set for him and so they better find another Rich White Guy in a Suit pronto who can lose graciously to Obama and keep them GOP fat cats warm and safe in their big money jobs and keep the party safe from the rest of us, the clamouring hoi-polloi, and so continue to guarantee that nothing ever changes and nothing ever gets better.

    • Curiosity says:

      I’m really not convinced the GOP establishment is willing to allow another win for President Obama. The biggest challenge will be to prevent a third party candidate from pulling GOP votes (perhaps Dr. Paul) away.

      I’d wager that even Miss Coulter would vote for Mr. Gingrich – much as she dislikes him – just to have President Obama out. We’d just be in for four years of scathing columns.

      Part of Mr. Romney’s performance, at the very least in South Carolina, has to be attributed to the fantastic Mrs. Sarah Palin, who wants (wanted?) to keep the debates going as long as possible. This forces the Democrats to spread out money (or to just save it all…) and gets as many skeletons out of closets now as possible, reducing the chances for an October surprise.

      And the only reason the GOP would pick a white guy is because the Democrats would engage in rampant character assassination – even if groundless – on any minority or female nominees.

    • artboyusa says:

      I can’t have any confidence in the GOP Ruling Class, curious. To give just one example, I remember the lightning speed with which they moved to defend their jobs the day after Obama was elected, when they should have been resigning in disgrace. To me, these are just dull, middle aged white men with weird hair who have got comfortable with power and want to hang on to it. Whether Obama wins or loses, they’ll still be rich, still be powerful and still have everyone kissing their asses and giving them free helicopter rides. Its us grunts who will suffer, not the John Boehners and Mitch McConnells. They’re all set, no matter what.

      The whole point, I thought, of the Tea Party was to take the power back from the jerks, ,including the ones supposedly on our side. They know this and they’ve been fighting us all along the line and a rigged convention is their last chance to keep their big offices and their comfy armchairs.

  4. Curiosity says:

    Now that you point that out, I don’t remember the resignations or calls for them either, though I was battling through my MS thesis at that time.

  5. Mithrandir says:

    While most Republicans wish they had different choices in the party’s presidential field….

    Ah, yeah THAT WOULDN’T HAPPEN if the RNC had a GRADING RUBRIC so that the Mitt Romneys of the world, who can’t / wouldn’t / didn’t, prove themselves when they had the chance, can’t buy their election later on. http://deoracle.org/learning-objects/sample-grading-rubric-for-term-papers-essays.html

    The Democrats do it they know who shows up at rallies when they are announced, they know who votes for things when it counts, they know when they blow the dog whistle who perks up. They have a grade book and place their bets on candidates who tow the party line, and every cycle the only democrat choice is socialist candidate A B or C. — but all these decades later, the Republicans are slow to figure it out. Get steel-spined Republicans who toughed it out in the bush leagues, before you put them on the national stage.

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