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Analysis: Iran’s Numbers Don’t Add Up

From the UK’s think tank, Chatham House:

Preliminary Analysis of the Voting Figures in Iran’s 2009 Presidential Election

Ali Ansari, Daniel Berman and Thomas Rintoul, June 2009

Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005 results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, this paper offers some observations about the official data and the debates surrounding the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election.

Executive Summary

Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005 results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, the following observations about the official data and the debates surrounding it can be made.

· In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.

· At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously silent Conservative majority.

· In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.

· In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas. That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces flies in the face of these trends.

Not that we really needed to be told this. Of course we still bridle at the radical Ahmadinejad supporters being called “conservative.”

As we have previously noted, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s party did not do well in the country’s last elections, back in December of 2006.

And given how much worse Iran’s conditions have grown since then, it’s hard to imagine such an overwhelming show of support at this time.

You can read the rest of the 19 page report here (a pdf file).

This article was posted by Steve on Sunday, June 21st, 2009. Comments are currently closed.

4 Responses to “Analysis: Iran’s Numbers Don’t Add Up”

  1. MinnesotaRush says:

    “In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.”

    So there really already is an Iranian ACORN (???).

  2. caligirl9 says:

    Yes, but how many of those who voted are actually dead?

    Or illegal aliens?

    (hmmmm … does Iran even have an illegal alien problem?)

  3. U NO HOO says:

    I remember 1979-80 and “The Hostage Crisis” and I don’t really care what happens in Iran except that Iran’s nuclear anti-Israel program gets nipped in the bud or if already bloomed cut off at the ground.

    Remember the candidate that said spread the wealth and put coal out of business?

    It’s true it can happen to you…


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