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Real Life New Unemployment Claims Up 25,990

From an unquestioning Associated Press:

US unemployment aid applications plunge to 339K, fewest in 4 ½ years; hopeful sign for hiring

Thursday, October 11, 2012

WASHINGTON — The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted last week to seasonally adjusted 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop offered a hopeful sign that the job market could pick up.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the fewest since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low.

We are told that the number of new jobless claims "plummeted." Even though, according to the Labor Department: "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 327,063 in the week ending October 6, an increase of 25,990 from the previous week."

Somehow those 26,000 new claims was ‘seasonally adjusted’ to a decline of 30,000. Which is a net difference of 55,999 claims. How is that possible? What season can account for that, except perhaps the ‘campaign season?

Do you think those 25,990 real life people who signed up for unemployment last week will be fooled?

Meanwhile, as usual, last week’s new claims number revised up 2,000. Which makes it 37 weeks in a row, and 83 out of the last 84 weeks, that the new claims numbers have been revised upward.

Weekly applications are a proxy for layoffs. They can fluctuate sharply from week to week. If they stay near last week’s level, it would likely signal better hiring ahead.

When applications consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

And coincidentally they are suddenly being reported as below that magic number.

The positive figures follow a government surprisingly upbeat September employment report…

That is putting it mildly.

Another report Wednesday suggested hiring will likely remain modest. Employers posted slightly fewer open jobs in August compared with July, the Labor Department said. It was the second straight monthly drop and the fewest openings since April.

A key problem is the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, down from 2 percent in the previous quarter. Most economists see growth staying at or below 2 percent in the second half of the year.

Hey, if a paltry 1.3% GDP can create 873,000 new jobs a month, what are we complaining about?

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, October 11th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

3 Responses to “Real Life New Unemployment Claims Up 25,990”

  1. GetBackJack

    Shhhh. Steve the King is not Nekkid.

    (everyone says so. now get back in line)

  2. BannedbytheTaliban

    What, no ‘unexpectedly’ in the lead? Also, it has been reported a “large” state has failed to provide their unemployment numbers for this month. What do you suppose the over/under is on that state having a democrat governor and/or voted for Obama? My money is on California.




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