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Poll: Romney’s Enthusiasm Up, Obama’s Down

From ABC News:

Enthusiasm Rises for Romney Ahead of Debate

By Gary Langer | Mon October 15, 2012

Rising enthusiasm and declining anxiety mark an energy boost among Mitt Romney’s supporters since he prevailed in the first presidential debate. But a persistent sense he’d favor the wealthy, combined with easing discontent with the nation’s direction, provide a retort for President Obama, raising the stakes for their second showdown this week.

Remember all the retorts that were raised when Obama was ahead in the polls? We don’t, either.

Romney now numerically leads Obama in strong enthusiasm and trails him in anxiety among potential voters, both firsts this season. At the same time, the number of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll who say the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track has eased to its lowest in nearly three years, 56 percent – a level incumbents can survive.

As usual, they oversampled Democrats among ‘registered voters" by 9%. (Dem/Rep/Ind = 34/25/36.)

Following the best jobs report in 44 months, 52 percent say Obama deserves at least some credit for lower joblessness…

Notice how even in this article ABC manages to put the good numbers for Obama before the good numbers for Romney.

These competing pulls make for a continued close race, with preferences narrowly divided and essentially unchanged. Likely voters split by 49-46 percent between Obama and Romney if the election were today, compared with 49-47 percent in the last ABC/Post poll, just before the first debate. The three-point difference between the candidates is within the survey’s margin of error

Not only does ABC bury the most important finding in their poll, they put it in such a way as to be almost impossible to figure out what they are saying. But Obama is only ahead in this poll by 3% even though they oversampled Democrats by 9%.

In fact, as usual, this poll oversampled Democrats across the board. Among "the general population" Dem/Rep/Ind = 33/22/37%. Among registered voters, Dem/Rep/Ind = 34/25/36. And among likely voters Dem/Rep/Ind = 35/26/33%.

To their credit, ABC does note their methodology at the bottom of their article. They also note that the partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll, which they say were 39-32-29 percent. So they gave the Democrats a 2% higher turnout than they had in 2008. While saying that the Republican enthusiasm is higher than Democrat.

The poll finds likely voters in nine battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin) dividing by 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney (not a significant difference). In the states rated as strong for Obama it’s 56-39 percent; in those seen as strong for Romney, he leads by an almost identical 55-39 percent…

We are not told how much the pollsters oversampled Democrats in these states to get these results. But you can be sure they did and by a wide margin.

Strong enthusiasm among [Romney's] supporters has soared from 26 percent five months ago to 59 percent now, including an 11-point gain in just the past two weeks. And while Obama’s strong enthusiasm is eight points lower than at this point in 2008, strong enthusiasm for Romney – potentially an indicator of voter turnout – is a vast 30 points better than McCain’s four years ago…

And yet this poll still oversampled likely voters by 9%, which is 2% higher than the exit polls put Democrats at in 2008.

FUNDAMENTALS – Other fundamentals – many of them more challenging for Romney – remain in place. He’s still very broadly seen as likely to favor the wealthy and as not having offered enough details about his polices. He’s even with – but not ahead of – Obama in trust to fix the economy, and in the expectation it’ll improve under his leadership.

Romney’s weaker than Obama in ratings of honesty and trustworthiness, and continues to trail in economic empathy and personal likeability alike, the latter by a 2-1 margin. Romney’s about even with Obama on two other attributes, strong leadership and – fundamental to their campaign arguments – having a better sense of the right size and role of government

LIGHTER LOOK – This survey also takes a lighter look at some serious underlying attributes, measuring which candidate registered voters would rather have as captain of a ship in a storm (suggesting skill under duress), babysit their child (caring and responsibility), work as their employee (reliability) and which they think would be more apt to go bungee jumping (fun for some, risk-taking to others)…

This is the same ABC/Washington Post poll that two weeks ago asked people which of the candidates they would rather see on ‘Dancing With The Stars.’ They really care about the important issues.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Monday, October 15th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

2 Responses to “Poll: Romney’s Enthusiasm Up, Obama’s Down”

  1. GetBackJack

    Which means Romney is leading vy 13% – 15%

    Given past results between >b>Voting and the polls leading up to The Day

  2. Right of the People

    Sounds like ABC is trying to discourage people from going to the polls, basically declaring the Obamination the winner already. Just like in 2000 in Florida when even though the polls hadn’t closed in the panhandle because it’s in the central time zone unlike the rest of the state one of the networks, NBC I think, declared Gore the winner in Florida. A lot of people in the panhandle coming home from work heard that and decided not to vote.

    With all the over sampling Romney is probably ahead by at least 15%. I mean even that airhead Lindsay Lohan is voting for him.




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