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Romney Would Lead In Unskewed CNN Poll

From the Examiner:

Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll

By Dean Chambers | Monday Sept 10, 2012

The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama…

The sample for the CNN/ORC poll includes 50.4 percent Democrats and 45.4 percent Republicans and appears to have only 4.2 percent independents. This means independents are under-sampled 25 percent while Democrats are over-sampled 12.1 percent. Both of those are larger variations in sampling than seen in most polls that are likewise skewed by such sampling variations.

Rasmussen Reports recent reporting of partisan trends among voters, based on tens of thousands of voters surveyed, showed the voting electorate made up of 35.4 percent Republicans, 34.0 percent Democrats and 30.5 percent “Unaffiliated” or independent voters. Clearly 6.5 percent of a sample as independents is a large under-sampling of those voters compared to 30.5 percent.

Unskewing this data to make up for the likely 25 percent under-sampling of independent voters shows the results are quite different. With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the Rasmussen numbers, this poll’s data would indicate a Romney lead over Obama of 53 percent to 45 percent. That is almost exactly the reverse of the 52 percent to 46 percent lead it reports in favor of Obama. The sampling skew of this poll actually reverses the result that should be shown by the data.

And to a greater or lesser extent, this is what is done in all of the mainstream media polls. In fact, it is us, the American public, who are being ‘skewed.’

Here is another example of how close things are, even when Democrats are over-sampled by 5%.

From TIPP Online:

Race Tightens As Obama Advantage Narrows To 2 Points

by TIPP Staff | Monday Sept 10, 2012

President Obama’s lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll. Romney gains support from men, southern, rural, and Hispanic voters this month.

Q: If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2% Refused

Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat (36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other (30%), Not sure/Refused (3%)

This seems to fit the general pattern. Without the skewing, Romney would be ahead.

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.

Well, speaking of those election night results, here was how the polling firms accuracy were judged on the night of the election as reported on Pollster.Com, via the Texas based Chronicle:

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

By Richard Dunham | Wednesday Nov 5, 2008

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos. The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it.

What a surprise that they would over-estimate Obama’s popularity.

Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Just look at who is at the bottom, even below the Daily Kos and Democracy Corps.

But, of course, their liberal bias had nothing to do with it.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Tuesday, September 11th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

2 Responses to “Romney Would Lead In Unskewed CNN Poll”

  1. Right of the People

    Let’s hope the Lame Stream Media gets “skewered” on their petard.

  2. Anonymoose

    I stopped giving any credence to polls when back in 2000 during the “Million Mom March” hype about gun control they had the “polling coordinator” for one of the big three news organizations in a chat room and he was accusing anyone who disagreed with him of having been “asked to be there by a member organization,”–in other words the NRA. Would you really trust someone assuming that to be honest and unbiased on a topic he disagrees with?

    This whole sampling thing is also bogus; they insist it’s accurate and it reflects the population, etc.—well, how come they say things like this:

    “some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.”

    Huh? Sounds pretty much like polls are junk then.


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