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Rothenberg: 44 Seats Moved Toward GOP

From the non-partisan [Stuart] Rothenberg Political Report:

This undated handout frame grab provided by the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is taken from a television ad used in tightly contested Congressional districts.

New House Ratings: 44 Seats Moved Toward GOP

April 15, 2010

We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.

Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.

We’ve moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats.

Here are our latest House ratings.

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* – Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 13 D)

  • AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
  • FL 24 (Kosmas, D) *
  • IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
  • IL 14 (Foster, D) *
  • MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
  • MI 7 (Schauer, D)
  • NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
  • NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
  • NY 24 (Arcuri, D) *
  • NV 3 (Titus, D) *
  • PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
  • PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) *
  • TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
  • WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)

  • AL 2 (Bright, D)
  • AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D) *
  • FL 8 (Grayson, D)
  • ID 1 (Minnick, D)
  • IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D) *
  • KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
  • MS 1 (Childers, D)
  • VA 2 (Nye, D) *
  • VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 7 D)

  • CA 3 (Lungren, R)
  • CO 4 (Markey, D) *
  • FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R) #
  • LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
  • MD 1 (Kratovil, D) *
  • NM 2 (Teague, D) *
  • NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) *
  • OH 1 (Driehaus, D) *
  • OH 15 (Kilroy, D) *
  • WA 8 (Reichert, R)

Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)

  • CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
  • NE 2 (Terry, R)
  • OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
  • PA 6 (Gerlach, R) *
  • PA 15 (Dent, R)
  • TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 4 D)

  • HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) *
  • ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) *
  • SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
  • WV 1 (Mollohan, D) *

Lean Democratic (1 R, 15 D)

  • AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) *
  • AZ 8 (Giffords, D) *
  • DE -AL (Open; Castle, R) *
  • IN 9 (Hill, D)
  • IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
  • MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D) *
  • MO 4 (Skelton, D)
  • NJ 3 (Adler, D) *
  • NY 1 (Bishop, D)
  • NY 19 (Hall, D)
  • OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
  • OH 18 (Space, D) *
  • PA 4 (Altmire, D) *
  • PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
  • VA 9 (Boucher, D) *
  • WI 7 (Obey, D) *

Democrat Favored (1 R, 19 D)

  • CA 11 (McNerney, D)
  • CO 3 (Salazar, D)
  • CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  • FL 22 (Klein, D) *
  • IL 11 (Halvorson, D) *
  • IN 2 (Donnelly, D) *
  • LA 2 (Cao, R)
  • NM 1 (Heinrich, D) *
  • NY 13 (McMahon, D)
  • NY 20 (Murphy, D)
  • NY 23 (Owens, D) #
  • NC 8 (Kissell, D)
  • OH 13 (Sutton, D) *
  • PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D) *
  • PA 8 (Murphy, D) *
  • PA 10 (Carney, D) *
  • PA 17 (Holden, D)
  • SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
  • TX 17 (Edwards, D)
  • WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 79
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68

We have always felt that April 16th should be election day.

And this year it would be even better.

This article was posted by Steve on Friday, April 16th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

6 Responses to “Rothenberg: 44 Seats Moved Toward GOP”

  1. mr_bill says:

    Hmmmm, its almost as if the voting public is angry with the democrats about something. I don’t get it, they gave us free healthcare and cut taxes for 95% of us. They are trying so hard to fly-tackle all of those evil polluting corporations and bring social justice, I just can’t figure out what people might be upset about. (/sarc)

  2. JohnMG says:

    Glass half-full–glass half-empty. I’m not sure which quickens my pulse more. The prospect of seats moving toward Republicans, or the prospects of the seats moving away from the Democrats. Right now, anything or anybody that would break the dem’s power lock has to be a desirable goal, but replacing one of them with a RINO amounts to a zero-function.

    What we really need are patriots with a fresh broom. Then the discussion can begin in earnest.

  3. bill says:

    The building wave …

  4. proreason says:

    and we haven’t even seen the cram-downs between now and November.

    proreason fearlessly predicts an 80 seat swing.

  5. crate says:

    This list has Minnick leaning Republican,, That is FALSE, he voted with Nancy all the time!!!!!! He just voted against HC to save his seat…


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