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Study: Sea To Rise Half What Estimated

From a disappointed New York Times:

The shore of Deception Island in Antarctica, in 2008

Study Halves Prediction of Rising Seas


A new analysis halves longstanding projections of how much sea levels could rise if Antarctica’s massive western ice sheets fully disintegrated as a result of global warming.

The flow of ice into the sea would probably raise sea levels about 10 feet rather than 20 feet, according to the analysis, published in the May 15 issue of the journal Science.

The scientists also predicted that seas would rise unevenly, with an additional 1.5-foot increase in levels along the east and west coasts of North America. That is because the shift in a huge mass of ice away from the South Pole would subtly change the strength of gravity locally and the rotation of the Earth, the authors said.

Several Antarctic specialists familiar with the new study had mixed reactions to the projections.

But they and the study’s lead author, Jonathan L. Bamber of the Bristol Glaciology Center, in England agreed that the odds of a disruptive rise in seas over the next century or so from the buildup of greenhouse gases remained serious enough to warrant the world’s attention…

There is strong consensus that warming waters around Antarctica, and Greenland in the Arctic, would result in centuries of rising seas. But glaciologists and oceanographers still say uncertainty prevails on the vital question of how fast coasts will retreat in a warming world in the next century or two.

The new study combined computer modeling with measurements of the ice and the underlying bedrock, both direct and by satellite…

Robert Bindschadler, a longtime specialist in polar ice at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said the study only provided a low estimate of Antarctica’s possible long-term contribution to rising seas because it did not deal with other mechanisms that could add water to the ocean…

“Even in Bamber’s world,” he said, referring to the study’s lead author, “there is more than enough ice to cause serious harm to the world’s coastlines.”

They don’t seem to be able to help themselves. Of course most of their career are now pegged on promoting these fears.

But really:

The scientists also predicted that seas would rise unevenly, with an additional 1.5-foot increase in levels along the east and west coasts of North America. That is because the shift in a huge mass of ice away from the South Pole would subtly change the strength of gravity locally and the rotation of the Earth, the authors said…

It does seem that they have to make crazier and crazier assertions, just to keep the scare on us.

This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, May 14th, 2009. Comments are currently closed.

19 Responses to “Study: Sea To Rise Half What Estimated”

  1. Colonel1961 says:

    Indeed. And if the sun goes out, it’s gonna get pretty dark…

    p.s. Sea Gods angry!

  2. Liberals Demise says:

    It has got to be a “CRISIS” because there simply is no “CRISIS!!” I’m gonna keep the hip waders nearby ……..JIC!!

    side note : Colonel……you got me bro! There’s a wet spot where I’m sitting……. man your funny!!

    • Colonel1961 says:

      ‘Sea Gods angry!’ is absolutely stolen from of Iowahawk… Thanks, anyway! lol

  3. Yarddog1 says:

    Just throw “Big Al’s” big ole butt in and the waters will rise to the levels originally predicted. But then someone would mistake him for a whale and harpoon him. That might not be so bad – then the Polar Bears would have plenty of blubber to eat and more of them would survive global warming.

    • Confucius says:

      Better yet, plant Rosie O’Donnell on the South Pole. Fix that whole gravitational problem lickety-split.

  4. Enthalpy says:

    My plan is to hide and watch.

  5. jobeth says:

    Hey! I’m going to love watching the water rise unevenly! That’s a sight I don’t think anyone has seen before. Gonna be interesting! LOL

  6. U NO HOO says:

    Wow, Bay of Fundy tourism will be great.

  7. Rusty Shackleford says:

    Dang, and I was hoping for LA, San Francisco and New York City to be underwater.

    Just can’t trust those scientists.

    I am reminded of the Gilligan’s Island episode when the perfesser thought the island was sinking, only to find out that Gilligan had been moving his measuring stick to re-set his crab-traps.

    Isn’t this kinda the same thing?

    I also did some online research and found that the areas that will be most hard-hit by this lesser rise in sea-levels will be the victim-class areas, thus making it Bush’s fault.

  8. Computer models must fit the narrative better than reality.

    The New York Times conveniently forgot to mention the current scientific evidence that the ice is expanding in much of Antarctica.


  9. Dangerous says:

    This is just sad. It was a source of pride while I was studying that my BSc. was at least worth more than a BA in something like interior design. We learned concrete, tangible facts, and methods for discovering further such in our classes. And then professional scientists throw that dignity out the window as they keep one-upping each other to see who can take home the most extreme computer model? Let’s see if I can’t run some numbers for comparison.

    Assuming that the sea boundaries did not change, but that the sea level rose 3m, almost 4 percent of the antarctic ice sheet would have to melt. This is just a quick and dirty calculation, but it does take into account the density difference between water and ice, albeit imperfectly due to the density difference between salt and freshwater. If you say a 6m increase, it would take almost 8% of the antarctic ice sheet melting. Something worth noting here, is that this quick little calculation assumes that the boundary between water and land stays in the same place, as though the water was just making a wall offshore, Ten Commandments-style. Add in the areas being flooded, and the amount of water required to flood them increases correspondingly. Not a whole, heaping heck-of-a-lot (land is only 30-ish% of the planet’s surface), but it counts.

    Now, 4 or 8 percent doesn’t seem like a lot, this is true. The arctic sea ice can vary by more than this from summer to winter. The thing worth noting is that the Antarctic ice sheet acts inconsistently. The two sheets, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet are different and behave differently. The WAIS is the smaller (10% or so of the total antarctic ice sheet), and it’s melting. The EAIS is bigger, and parts of it are gaining mass. Looking at the numbers, these worst case scenarios seem to be predicting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will drop off and melt as a whole. The only problem being, they seem to be nesting an “if” on a “maybe” on a “we don’t know how.”

    So, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet starts acting in a certain way, it may reach a tipping point or a point of no return and could break up in an “explosively rapid”(James Hansen) manner, that current computer models do not contain the necessary physics to explain.

    Shout it from the rooftops, we’re all going to drown.

    The only consolation I can find is that they actually focus on Antarctic ice, which can have an effect on water level, rather than the arctic ice. Waiting for arctic ice to change the sea level (not counting greenland and other on-land ice) is like waiting for an ice cube melting in a drink to make the glass overflow.

  10. proreason says:

    Computer models that can be made to produce any information the author wants.

    The bigger danger to humanity is that eventually glaciers will return and cover Europe and most of North America.

    At least that one is based on the known climate pattern for the last 1 million years or so.

    (PS: don’t tell the libstards. They will want an iceberg tax by noon.)

  11. MinnesotaRush says:

    Where the heck is that darned “Chicken Little” when ya’ need ’em???

    There goes that “x feet above/below sea level” thing they been using (except New Orleans) for what .. centuries?!?!?

  12. canary says:

    The ice is allready in the water. Just because it reorganizes, does not mean that the water will rise. More fishies with clean water. The snow and rain causes the water to rise. We’ve had flooding, and the water has risen. duh. I’m glad. We needed the water. What goes up, must come down. Recycled water.

  13. BannedbytheTaliban says:

    Everytime I read about global warming associated sea level rise all I hear is that old George Strait song “I’ve got some…Ocean front property in Arizona…”

  14. Odie44 says:

    Whew, it was a close one for me and the wife.

    But after using a different computer model, it looks like we will be making $372,987 more this year. We can’t wait to join that other family on a cruise!

  15. U NO HOO says:

    Reminds me of how some people calculate their car gas mileage, they use just over half a tank, say half a tank, a tank is 17 and a half gallons, say 17, half of 17 is 8.5, say 8, they went 155 miles, say 160 to make it easy, voila, 20 miles per gallon, Excellent! Way better than the sticker that says 14.

    If I didn’t flunk the LSAT I’d be President.

  16. eaglewingz08 says:

    The nonsense these environmental propagandists put out is amazing. So if the gravity and the rotation changes, maybe that will shift the planet enough so that global warming stops and the planet starts to cool again, and so we need do nothing because the world will take care of itself. (If the environazis can claim their speculation is fact, so can I).

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