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The WP Sees Latest NBC-WSJ Poll As Worrying

From a white-knuckled Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post:

3 numbers in the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll that should worry Democrats

By Chris Cillizza | March 12, 2014

On the heels of Democrats’ surprising loss in a Florida special election on Tuesday comes a new NBC-Wall Street Journal national poll that will (and should) trigger even more nervousness within the party as the November midterm election draws closer.

Which means nervousness within our one party news media, too, of course.

The entire poll is an embarrassment of riches for political junkies — you can scan it yourself here — but three numbers in particular jumped out at us.

1. 41. That’s President Obama’s overall job approval in the new NBC-WSJ survey, the lowest he has been in the history of the poll. And, it’s not a blip in the NBC-WSJ data. Obama was at 43 percent approval in January, 43 percent approval in December 2013 and 42 percent in late October 2013. In fact, the last time Obama’s job approval was over 45 percent in the NBC-WSJ poll was June 2013.

Here’s why that matters. When Democrats lost control of the House in the the 1994 election, President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was at 46 percent in the final Gallup poll before the election. In 2010, when Republicans won 63 seats — and the majority — Obama was at 45 percent job approval in the last Gallup poll before the election…

2. 44. That’s the percentage of respondents who said that a "congressperson’s position on national issues" would be more important in deciding their votes than the "congressperson’s performance in taking care of problems in your district."… [T]he fact that four in ten registered voters are saying this far out from an election that national issues take priority in how they will vote is a telling indicator of the possibility of the November election being nationalized — and not in a way that benefits Democrats

In late October 2006, 39 percent of people said a congressperson’s view on national issues was more important while 39 percent said care and feeding of the district mattered more. In October 1994, 35 percent said national issues mattered more while 51 percent prioritized local performance. So, the numbers right now point more heavily toward a nationalized election than they did in late 1994 and are close to where the environment stood in October 2006…

3. 33. One in three registered voters in the NBC-WSJ poll said that their vote for Congress this fall will be intended to signal opposition to President Obama. Compare that to the 24 percent who said their vote would be a way to show support for Obama and you have the enthusiasm gap between the two party bases that likely sunk (Alex) Sink on Tuesday

The danger for Obama — and his party — is if his current numbers continue to tumble into a place where George W. Bush found himself in 2006; in a late October NBC-WSJ poll, 37 percent said their vote was to show opposition to Bush while just 22 percent said it was to show support.

Scary stuff. For our one party media, anyway.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, March 13th, 2014. Comments are currently closed.

One Response to “The WP Sees Latest NBC-WSJ Poll As Worrying”

  1. yadayada

    never fear – boner will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


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