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Unadjusted New Jobless Claims Are Up By 69,971

From the Associated Press:

US jobless claims plunge to lowest in 4 years

CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER | July 12, 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people seeking unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in four years, a hopeful sign for the struggling job market. But the decline was partly due to temporary factors.

This is quite cynical for the Obama cheerleaders at the Associated Press.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped by 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 350,000. It was the third straight decline and the lowest level since March 2008

Still, Labor officials cautioned that seasonal factors affected last week’s figures.

Automakers traditionally close their plants for the first two weeks in July to prepare them to build new car models and their employees file for unemployment benefits.

But this year automakers are limiting the shutdowns, hoping to boost production. That has resulted in fewer temporary layoffs than is normally the case in early July

So automakers are accounting for the seasonal adjustment?

For the record, here is this week’s unadjusted jobs claim number, direct from the Department Of Labor:

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

July 12, 2012

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 376,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 439,743 in the week ending July 7, an increase of 69,971 from the previous week. There were 473,963 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011

Using the DOL’s unadjusted data (AKA the actual number of new claims) the weekly number did not drop at all. In fact, the non-seasonally adjusted number went up by nearly 70,000. (And 72,000 if you go by last week’s unrevised figure.)

In fact, the difference between the unadjusted number (439,743) and the seasonally adjusted number (350,000) is a whopping 89,743. (439,743 – 350,000 = 89,743.)

So because there would have been more people laid off if the automakers had gone on furlough, the DOL has "seasonally adjusted" the real life new claims number by ignoring 90,000 real life claims. That is crazy, to put it mildly.

In fact, I am beginning to think that the real seasonally adjustments being made here are for the campaign season.

By the way, for those of you keeping track, last week’s jobless claims number was revised up 2,000. (From 374,000 to 376,000.) It has now been revised up now for 25 weeks in a row. And 70 of the last 71 weeks.

This article was posted by Steve on Thursday, July 12th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

4 Responses to “Unadjusted New Jobless Claims Are Up By 69,971”

  1. ilzito guacamolito says:

    As you pointed out in the post about Romney’s wealth:

    ~ But notice how this articles headline and sub-headline give the exact opposite impression. Gallup knows most people only read the headlines.~

    The AP hopes no one reads the article.

  2. AcornsRNutz says:

    I am still confused about all this. Like I have said, and I am genuinely trying to find an answer, not being a smart aleck, but how does one seasonally adjust the raw number of claims? Seasonal factors, it would seem to me, might have effect on the percentage of unemployed due to the number of available jobs shifting with the seasons. I just fail to see how if 493,xxx people walked into the unemployment office in July, that in reality that number is only 350,xxx because it was summer. I have been asking this all along and still gotten no reasonable answer.

    Also, I am unclear about weekly unemployment numbers. Is this stating that around 350-400 thousand people are claiming unemployment every WEEK? This can’t be. Am I missing something? Seriously, someone help me read this stuff.

    • AcornsRNutz says:

      ANd another thought, how is it that we have been seasonally adjusting stuff since winter and it always goes down. So no matter what season it happens to be, we still have to lower the numbers. How does that work? Is there a season that turns 400,000 into 425,000? Does this also work for the number of 20 dollar bills in my sock drawer?

    • Right of the People says:

      The season is called Dimocrap. I occurs concurrently with Winter, Spring, Summer & Autumn but only in the never-neverland that the Libtards live in.

      It used to be the unemployment claims went up in September after Labor Day because the jobs at the beach concession stands, etc. went away and in January because the temp employees hired for the Christmas rush were laid off but now they seem to occur every month because of “seasonal” adjustments.

      If you want to know the truth, take the numbers the DOJ releases and multiply by three and voila, you have the real numbers.


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