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US Health Costs Will Almost Double By 2020

From an unfazed Associated Press:

Gov’t: Health tab to hit $4.6 trillion in 2020

By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR – Associated Press
July 28, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s health care tab is on track to hit $4.6 trillion in 2020, accounting for about $1 of every $5 in the economy, government number crunchers estimate in a report out Thursday.

How much is that? Including government and private money, health care spending in 2020 will average $13,710 for every man, woman and child, says Medicare’s Office of the Actuary.

Given how notoriously the government lowballs such estimates, the final costs will probably end up being many times more.

By comparison, U.S. health care spending this year is projected to top $2.7 trillion, or about $8,650 per capita, roughly $1 of $6 in the economy. Most of that spending is for care for the sickest people.

The report from Medicare economists and statisticians is an annual barometer of a trend that many experts say is unsustainable but doesn’t seem to be slowing down.

So Obama-care did exactly what again?

A political compromise over the nation’s debt and deficits might succeed in tapping the brakes on health care, but polarized lawmakers have been unable to deliver a deal.

Huh? No deal that we have heard about does anything to curb health care spending. Though, of course, they should.

The analysis found that President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul would only be a modest contributor to growing costs, even though an additional 30 million people who would be otherwise uninsured stand to gain coverage

Health care spending will jump by 8 percent in 2014, when the law’s coverage expansion kicks in. But over the 2010-2020 period covered by the estimate, the average yearly growth in health care spending will be only 0.1 percentage point higher than without Obama’s overhaul

Which is why these estimates are worthless. Who believes that Obama-care will "only be a modest contributor to growing costs"? It’s laughable.

Especially, when you remember that Obama promised us his healthcare reform would save trillions of dollars. And the CBO and other government stooges pretended to believe him.

Government, already the dominant player because of Medicare and Medicaid, will become even more important. By 2020, federal, state and local government health care spending will account for just under half the total tab, up from 45 percent currently. As the health care law’s coverage expansion takes effect, "health care financing is anticipated to further shift toward governments," the report said

The hell you say. – Of course we were told just the opposite.

But apparently it is the government’s job to lie to us about such things.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Thursday, July 28th, 2011. Comments are currently closed.

2 Responses to “US Health Costs Will Almost Double By 2020”

  1. proreason

    Well, inflation is typically 3%. It’s really hard to believe that medical costs won’t exceed that by 5%. That’s probably wildly low.

    8% increases for 9 years double the cost.

    That’s a lowball guess. If the increase averages 10% per year, which is highly likely given the almost certain hyper-inflation due to hit, oh, about Nov 5, 2012 (no matter who wins), and the absolutely certain mega-waste in Obamyscare…the cost of medical care in 10 years will be 2.6 higher. Even that is probably low. 3 or 4x is more likely, unless people voluntarilly reduce their usage of health care.

    Basically what will have to happen is that people will begin foregoing procedures that they would like to have. VDH described this (along with many other economic decisions people will be making in the near future), in an article that is still up on NRO today. So, you won’t see a doctor for flu symptoms, sprained ankles, back problems. You won’t have knee and hip replacements. You won’t agree to MRI’s and cat scans. You won’t have annual breast exams. You won’t take any medicine that isn’t a generic. You won’t go to a doctor for checkups. Older people will simply die rather than having cancers treated. This is about as certain as things get nowadays.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/.....vis-hanson

    • Right of the People

      Pro,

      You’re being so damned cynical. Once our benevolent ruler, The Won, fixes healthcare we’ll all be so much better.

      Unicorns will be farting rainbows everywhere and only those who absolutely need it will get care once his Usage Panels are in place and some accountant is deciding whether you really need that hip replacement.

      It will be government Nirvana! Kum ba ya, kum ba ya!




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