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US Tells Israel: Nuke Threat Not Imminent

From a memory free New York Times:

U.S. Assures Israel That Iran Threat Is Not Imminent

August 19, 2010

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration, citing evidence of continued troubles inside Iran’s nuclear program, has persuaded Israel that it would take roughly a year — and perhaps longer — for Iran to complete what one senior official called a “dash” for a nuclear weapon, according to American officials.

Wait a minute. Aren’t these the same experts who wrote in a National Intelligence Estimate back in December 2007, that Iran had given up on its nuclear program?

They were laughably wrong. Why should anyone trust them?

Administration officials said they believe the assessment has dimmed the prospect that Israel would preemptively strike against the country’s nuclear facilities within the next year, as Israeli officials have suggested in thinly veiled threats.

Which would appear to be the real reason for this ‘assessment.’ And it certainly doesn’t speak to the problem that the Israelis face if they let the facility get fueled.

For years, Israeli and American officials have debated whether Iran is on an inexorable drive toward a nuclear bomb and, if so, how long it would take to produce one. A critical question has been the time it would take Tehran to convert existing stocks of low-enriched uranium into weapons-grade material, a process commonly known as “breakout.”

Israeli intelligence officials had argued that Iran could complete such a race for the bomb in months, while American intelligence agencies have come to believe in the past year that the timeline is longer.

“We think that they have roughly a year dash time,” said Gary Samore, President Obama’s top adviser on nuclear issues, referring to how long it would take the Iranians to convert nuclear material into a working weapon. “A year is a very long period of time.”

Maybe it’s not quite so long if your entire nation is at risk of being annihilated.

American officials said the United States believed international inspectors would detect an Iranian move toward breakout within weeks, leaving a considerable amount of time for the United States and Israel to consider military strikes.

Again, what an absolute joke. These same “international inspectors” didn’t even know that the Iranians had built an additional nuclear site right under their noses.

The American assessments are based on intelligence collected over the past year, as well as reports from international inspectors. It is unclear whether the problems that Iran has had enriching uranium are the result of poor centrifuge design, difficulty obtaining components or accelerated Western efforts to sabotage the nuclear program.

American officials said new intelligence information was being fed into a long-delayed National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program.

Is this also being delayed until after the November elections?

Now, American and Israeli officials believe breakout is unlikely anytime soon.

Yes, now after the Americans have “persuaded” the Israelis to believe this. If they have. (And we hope they haven’t.)

For one thing, Iran, which claims it is interested in enriching uranium only for peaceful purposes, would be forced to build nuclear bombs from a limited supply of nuclear material, currently enough for two weapons.

This is the 65th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Which should remind us of the damage that can be done by two nuclear bombs – even ones with a tiny fraction of the destructive force modern bombs have.

Second, such a decision would require kicking out international weapons inspectors, eliminating any ambiguity about Iran’s nuclear plans.

Again, what a laugh. Iran kicks out inspectors all the time. Although it hardly seems necessary, since these inspectors miss the construction of entire nuclear plants.

Even if Iran were to choose this path, American officials said it would probably take Iran some time to reconfigure its nuclear facilities to produce weapons-grade uranium and ramp up work on designing a nuclear warhead.

So don’t worry, Israel. It will take “some time” before the Iranians are ready to destroy your country.

Israeli officials have indicated that if they saw a race for the bomb under way, they would probably take military action and encourage the United States to join the effort. A spokesman for Israel’s embassy in Washington declined to comment for this article. In interviews, Israeli officials said their assessments were coming into line with the American view, but they remain suspicious that Iran has a secret enrichment site yet to be discovered

How could that be possible, what with all of the international inspectors?

To block Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the United States and the European Union recently imposed harsh economic sanctions aimed at choking off Iran’s energy supplies and prohibiting foreign banks from doing business with financial institutions inside the country.

Several officials said they believed the mounting cost of the economic sanctions, especially those affecting Iran’s ability to import gasoline and develop its oil fields, has created fissures among Iran’s political elite and forced a debate about the costs of developing nuclear weapons…

And we believe them, too.

Officials concede there are potential vulnerabilities in their assessments. Chief among them is whether Iran has hidden another enrichment center somewhere in the tunnels it has dug throughout the country, including some near Natanz…

If we weren’t talking about the fate of a nation, all of this would be quite laughable.

This article was posted by Steve on Friday, August 20th, 2010. Comments are currently closed.

8 Responses to “US Tells Israel: Nuke Threat Not Imminent”

  1. JohnMG says:

    Even if all this were true, which I seriously doubt, Iran will continue its march toward nuclear armament.

    Past performance has proven they will move incrementally when pressed with sanctions and the like, and gallop along with gleeful haste when unfettered by a determined resistance. They have no timetable….only a goal, and they WILL move inexorably toward that goal. Their quest for nuclear weapons is no less insidious than Islam itself. No matter how long it may take, no matter how many setbacks along the way, Iran will continue this program.

    Unfortunately, they are being aided and abetted by this administration’s tacit approval or total ineptitude.

  2. artboyusa says:

    If there’s one lesson from history that Israel’s learned, its to not accept anyone else’s guarantee of their safety. They’ll do what they need to do when they think the time is right to do it.

  3. tranquil.night says:

    “That is, in my view, the two government sponsored enterprises we are talking about here, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not in a crisis.”

    Stop wasting your breath and what little credibility you have left. Get real or get out.

  4. oldpuppydixie says:

    Israel has long been taken over by the same leftist, self-loathing thugs who now rule in the US. Political Correctness will not permit those who wish to save their country to attack and destroy the imminent threat Iran represents. The Nation of Israel will be with us for, perhaps, one more year. Better take your pictures NOW.

  5. Right of the People says:

    What would be perfect for Israel and with total deniability would be if they could sneak a suitcase nuke into Iran’s facility and detonate it. The nuke plant goes up in a nuclear explosion and it’s a win, win. The plant and their program are gone and they can claim to the world, “Look the Iranians WERE building a bomb but they blew themselves up.”

    Neat and clean, problem solved. So easy a caveman could do it.

  6. Liberals Demise says:

    Iran is going to build 10 more nuclear plants and burying them under mountains so there is no need to worry. The U.N. has your back, Israel.
    Diplomacy………hardly working and they see it is so.

  7. canary says:

    AP: IAEA: Iran activates enrichment equipment
    By Veronika Oleksyn – Aug 9, 2010

    VIENNA — Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently in a move that defies the U.N. Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday.

    The Vienna-based nuclear watchdog said Iran has started using a second set of 164 centrifuges linked in a cascade, or string of machines, to enrich uranium to up to 20 percent at its Natanz pilot fuel enrichment plant. Another cascade there has been producing uranium enriched to near 20 percent since February.

    If enriched to around 95 percent, uranium can be used in building a nuclear bomb. At 20 percent, it can be turned into weapons-grade material much more quickly than less-enriched uranium.

    IAEA spokeswoman Gill Tudor said that when agency inspectors visited the facility on July 17, “Iran was feeding nuclear material to the two interconnected 164-machine centrifuge cascades.”

    The move upgrades the efficiency of production by recycling the waste now being left by the first cascade to squeeze out more enriched uranium at near 20-percent levels, diplomats said in May when they disclosed to The Associated Press that Iranian technicians had assembled the second 164-centrifuge cascade and appeared ready to activate it.

    One of the diplomats familiar with Iran’s enrichment programs emphasized at the time that the idea appeared not to produce greater amounts than the first operating cascade was turning out, but to improve productivity.

    The IAEA’s comments Monday came as Iran announced plans to get rid of its dollar and euro reserves in response to the latest U.N. sanctions over its contested nuclear program.

    “To fight sanctions, we will remove the dollar and euro from our foreign exchange basket and will replace them with (the Iranian) rial and the currency of any country cooperating with us,” Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told Iran’s semiofficial Fars news agency. “We consider these currencies (dollar and euro) dirty and won’t sell oil in dollar and euro,” he added.

    Associated Press writers Juergen Baetz in Berlin, Albert Aji in Damascus, Syria, and Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran contributed to this report.

    Israel is just a tiny dot on the globe and it would not take much, and it’s bordering countries sneaking in and firing rockets, setting bombs on the shores, bombs at their sea bed. I wouldn’t trust the U.S. being competent with all the distractions of Obama weakened by celebrating Ramadmen, BP, the Clinton wedding of the year, vacations, non-stop campaigning, terrorist mosques, etc.

  8. canary says:

    Update: Uskowi on Iran: Iran test fires new Qiam-1 ballistic missile

    Aug 20 2010 (see photos & entire article link below)

    Iran’s new surface-to-surface missile, Qiam-1 (Rising), has been successfully test fired, the country’s Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi says.

    “Qiam-1 is part of the new generation of the Islamic Republic’s surface-to-surface missiles with liquid fuel and completely designed and built domestically,” General Vahidi noted.

    smart navigation system, which decreases the possibility of it being targeted by other projectiles.

    Vahidi added…”It enjoys enhanced agility due to the scrapping of its fins.”


    Iran plans more nuclear plants and unveils new hi-tech drones
    permalinke-mail story to a friendprint version

    Edited 19 August, 2010, 08:19

    “We in the parliament have tasked the government with producing 20,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity,” Borouujerdi said on Sunday. “That means setting up 20 power plants like Bushehr,” Iran’s Fars news agency quoted him as saying. To supply the fuel for these power plants, Iran should carry out enrichment and “it is doing it,” he added.

    Iranian media said the ongoing enrichment is intended to feed nuclear reactors that the country plans to build rather than for Bushehr. Iran’s ambassador to Moscow, Mahmoud-Reza Sajjadi, also stressed on August 16 that Tehran should not stop the enrichment despite the fact that Russia is providing fuel.

    Russia will deliver nuclear fuel to the first unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant on August 21, Rosatom Assistant General Director Sergey Novikov told Itar-Tass. The delivery will be a symbolic moment that ends the tests of all systems of the Bushehr plant. The work will be done under the monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The fuel will be loaded into the reactor after the Iranian nuclear watchdog agency gives its permission.

    According to Fars, the Bushehr plant will be operational by the third week of September. Novikov said, however, that the plant will not produce energy for another six months. Moscow and Tehran agreed 15 years ago to finish the plant when Siemens had failed to complete it.

    However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that the threats of a possible Israeli attack on the Bushehr plant “had become repetitive and lost their meaning.”

    Iran itself is continuing to build its defense shield against the possible attack. The first home-made long-range Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) nicknamed “Karrar” will be unveiled on August 22, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi has said.

    The minister also reiterated on August 17 that Tehran planned to unveil two new ground-to-ground missiles and two new home-made vessels equipped with missile and rocket launchers.

    Iran is developing two hi-tech drones named Thunder and Harbinger, which are capable of conducting long-range reconnaissance, patrolling, assault and bombing missions with high precision, Fars said.

    Sergey Borisov, RT

    Thunder rocket should face my little doggie Thunder Paws

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