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WP Daily Tracking Poll Has Romney Up By 1%

First we have this from the Politico:

Gallup suspends daily tracking poll

By KATIE GLUECK | Tue October 30, 2012

Gallup will not conduct its daily tracking survey for the second night in a row as a result of superstorm Sandy, the polling firm announced Tuesday.

“Gallup will not conduct daily tracking surveys for a second night, Tuesday, Oct. 30, due to the ongoing effects of superstorm Sandy and will continue to reassess the situation on a day-to-day basis,” read a statement from the organization. “Gallup will provide an update on Wednesday about plans from that point forward.” …

Gallup’s operation center is in Omaha, Nebraska. They have call centers in numerous states around the country, including Nebraska, California, Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Georgia. — So why aren’t they able to call people? The storm didn’t affect the whole country.

A cynical person might say this is evidence pollsters confuse the opinions of the East Coast with the opinion of the whole country. A cynical person might say this storm is just giving Gallup cover.

Now when they have to be more accurate to preserve their credibility they can stop polling. And when they do resume polling, they can’t go wild. If they turn out to be wrong, they can just blame being unable to poll completely for skewing their results.

Anyway, the Washington Post, which was actually in the path of Sandy, has managed to resume its daily tracking. (But note, this is yesterday’s poll. They usually publish their daily findings after 5pm.)

From the Washington Post:

WASHINGTON POST – ABC NEWS POLL: Updated daily

The home stretch

October 30, 2012

Five days of tracking results have produced not more than a single point difference between Mitt Romney and President Obama: the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll has Romney at 49 percent, Obama at 48 percent…

For the record, this poll oversampled Dems by 5%. (Likely Voters: Dem/Rep/Ind: 33/28/35%.) Which is actually less than the 7% oversampling they used yesterday, which showed the two candidates tied at 49%.

They poll also says Independents are going for Romney 52% to 45%, which is a 7% lead.

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you . . . . . .trust to do a better job handling the economy? OBAMA 46% ROMNEY 49%…

Which gives Romney another 7% advantage.

No wonder Gallup wants to stop polling.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Wednesday, October 31st, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

One Response to “WP Daily Tracking Poll Has Romney Up By 1%”

  1. Right of the People

    At this late stage in the game if somebody hasn’t made up their mind who they want to vote for they’d might as well go into the booth next week with a quarter and just flip it to see which way to vote. To make it fair they could do best 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 5.

    Once you’re this close I don’t think the polls matter anymore.




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