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If Election Were Held Today, Romney Would Win

From the Washington Post:

President Romney? Yes, if the election were held today

By Aaron Blake | November 19, 2013

For Mitt Romney, the 2012 election was held about a year too early. Romney would hold a slight lead on President Obama if the 2012 election were replayed today, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The poll of registered voters shows Romney at 49 percent and Obama at 45 percent in the rematch, a mirror image of Romney’s four-point (51-47) popular-vote loss in 2012.

Obama’s shifting fortunes, of course, come as his signature health-care is increasingly embattled — both thanks to a glitchy Web site and a broken promise by Obama to allow people who like their insurance to keep it.

Hey, where are all the liberals who always start calling for the US to adopt a ‘Parliamentarian system’ whenever a Republican President gets down in the polls? But to quote John Boehner, "If ands and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas."

Obama’s loss of support is spread across many demographics, but he has suffered most among the young, the less-educated, the poor and, perhaps most interestingly, among liberals…

* Obama won women in 2012 by 11 points, according to exit polls; today he leads by one point.
* He has seen his lead among young voters (18-39 years old) drop from 18 percent to 2 percent.

Holy Carp! But maybe women and young people are figuring out Obama-Care and the government in general are not going to take care of them like Obama promised, after all.

* His four-point lead among those with less than a college degree has flipped to a nine-point deficit.
* Among those making less than $50,000, Obama’s 22-point lead is now three points.
* The biggest drop is among those professing to have no religion. While this group backed Obama by 44 points, it now supports him by a 22-point margin.
* Among liberals, Obama won by 75 points but now leads by 59 percent. One in five self-described liberals (20 percent) say they would vote for Romney.

This all comes with a few caveats.

1) This poll, obviously, is hypothetical. People know there isn’t another election between Romney and Obama and may be more willing to change their opinion from the 2012 vote. 2) This doesn’t necessarily mean Romney would win the race today. There is, of course, the margin of error and the fact that that the Electoral College — and not the popular vote — elects the president.

That said, an eight-point shift in the popular vote, spread across the entire country, would have netted Romney an additional 10 states and 125 electoral votes in 2012. That would mean he would have won the race 331-207 — virtually the same margin as Obama’s 332-206 win.

But thank goodness we dodged that Romney bullet, though. Just imagine how he would have destroyed the country.

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, November 19th, 2013. Comments are currently closed.

One Response to “If Election Were Held Today, Romney Would Win”

  1. Enthalpy says:

    Why don’t we give him a chance? So many times I heard that. It’s like the scorpion and the frog. Barack Obama is the scorpion.

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