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WP: O-Care To Cut Deficit More Than Sequester

From the Washington Post:

What will have a greater impact in reducing the deficit: the sequester or ‘Obamacare’?

By Glenn Kessler | November 11, 2013

“If you look at the biggest thing that are cutting our deficit over the medium and long run, it’s actually the Affordable Care Act, which is, you know, by bringing down the cost of health care, that doesn’t just help our economy, it helps bring our deficit down.” – Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, during an interview on MSNBC’s Jansing & Co., November 8, 2013

Furman made this counterintuitive comment after MSNBC’s Chris Jansing made the observation that Republicans would say that “the effect of the sequester has been terrific on the debt. And they would take a lot of credit for what we are seeing right now in debt reduction.” …

And by "counterintuitive" they mean absolutely laughable. But there is no lie from this administration that is too big for the Washington Post to try to defend.

The Facts

First of all, a caveat: The information that follows is based mostly on estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, some of which are long-range estimates subject to many variables. Reasonable people might disagree on whether these estimates are correct — skeptics might argue that the long-term cost of “Obamacare” is undercounted–but it’s the best that we have at the moment…

Is that the same CBO that said before it was passed that Obama-Care was going to be ‘revenue neutral?’ The same CBO that in 1965 under-estimated the future costs of Medicare and Medicaid by more than 1,000%?

In the near term, the data show, the sequester shrinks the deficit more. Each year, it reduces the deficit by about $100 billion, or about 0.5 percent of the overall economy (gross domestic product) in that period. Meanwhile, the health care law adds to the deficit in its early years of implementation…

The hell you say!

To Furman’s key point, after the first 10 years, CBO predicts in the letter to Boehner that (after flipping the numbers) the health care law would reduce the deficit by 0.5 percent  of GDP  between 2023 and 2032…

The sequester is only going to last another nine years. So, yeah, it might not have too much of an impact on the deficit after that. But if the point is the supposed Obama-Care savings will last longer, so will the costs of the premiums subsidies as well as the increase in the Medicaid rolls.

The Pinocchio Test

In the immediate future, the sequester will reduce deficit more, but after the next eight or so years, the Affordable Care Act is deemed to have a greater long-term impact, according to the CBO. Furman’s quote referenced the “middle and long run,” which we read as a single period of time.

Any massive piece of legislation affecting such a large part of the economy will have many unknown consequences, both good and bad, that are impossible to predict. It would be interesting to revisit this claim in 20 years. But from what we know now, Furman’s statement stands up to scrutiny. He earns a rare Geppetto Checkmark.

Geppetto Checkmark

This is the Washington Post’s fact checkers ‘cutesy’ way of saying this claim is completely true. — We kid you not. No wonder they haven’t noticed what a liar Mr. Obama is.

This article was posted by Steve on Monday, November 11th, 2013. Comments are currently closed.

4 Responses to “WP: O-Care To Cut Deficit More Than Sequester”

  1. canary says:

    Furman wrote the sequestered were unemployed in status; not laid off.
    That explains an increase of employment aside it’s the Holiday Season.

    This headlining statement by Furman is incomplete and deceptive. First on his list.

    ” 1. America’s resilient businesses have added jobs for 44 consecutive months, with private sector employment increasing by a total of 7.8 million over that period.”

    I’d say he’s more of a PR guy.

  2. BillK says:

    If you deny enough people health care, it brings the costs down, simple as that.

  3. GetBackJack says:

    I am truly surprised people who say these things don’t spontaneously burst into flames ..

  4. untrainable says:

    Wow! Decreasing the deficit by .5% per year. So, and check my math here, in 199.5 years we’ll be operating with a balanced budget. After that we’ll start paying off the $800 quadrillion national debt. Well, I don’t know about you, but I feel so much better now.

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