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WP Poll: Obama And Romney Deadlocked At 47%

From the Washington Post:

President Obama, Mitt Romney deadlocked in race, poll finds

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen | Tuesday, July 10, 2012

A pair of tepid jobs reports, landmark Supreme Court decisions on health-care and immigration laws, and an unprecedented barrage of negative ads have shaped the opening months of the fall presidential campaign. The impact on the horse race: virtually none.

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remain in a deadlocked contest, tied at 47 percent among registered voters and basically where they stood in late May.

It’s almost impossible to believe Americans aren’t furious at the “tepid job reports,” and the preposterous Obama-Care ruling, and Obama’s unprecedented backdoor amnesty. So things are probably worse for Obama than this poll is showing.

The new numbers reflect a stubborn constancy: Only twice in 13 surveys over more than a year has either candidate held a lead exceeding the poll’s margin of sampling error. Now, the campaign appears destined to remain extremely close in the final four months before Election Day.

The fundamentals seem firmly planted: About two-thirds of Americans consider the country seriously off course, a majority have not approved of Obama’s overall job performance in more than a year, and the president remains in negative territory on dealing with the economy, health care and immigration.

This is very reassuring. Though you have to wonder with the remaining one third are thinking, unless they are members of the ‘dependent class.’

Also unmoved since fall are Americans’ attitudes toward spending, with as many saying they would prefer an increase in federal spending to try to spur economic growth as wanting to prioritize deficit reduction.

This, however, is disturbing.

The stability persists despite the costliest blitz of early campaign advertising the country has ever seen. Both sides have run some positive ads, but the Obama team and its allies have relentlessly attacked Romney’s experience at Bain Capital, an investment firm the Republican co-founded, in its paid spots. Romney and his supporters, meanwhile, have focused a considerable portion of spending on Obama’s economic record.

Funny, how the Washington Post doesn’t mention that most of the Obama attacks on Romney have been grossly misleading, even according to their own fact checkers.

The lack of movement underscores intense polarization — about nine in 10 Republicans back Romney, and a similar proportion of Democrats support Obama — and a relatively small percentage of voters say there is a “good chance” that they could change their minds before November.

At this point, 74 percent of all voters are “definitely” supporting Obama or Romney, and 12 percent say it is unlikely that they will switch from one to the other, making the race a settled issue for nearly nine in 10 voters. For both campaigns, such a high level of early commitment shifts the focus to turnout — and to which side can muster the most effective get-out-the-vote operation.

Luckily, everyday Obama seems to go out of his way to fire up the Republican base and assure a good turnout for them.

Obama still benefits from a clear, but dwindling, enthusiasm gap. Just over half, 51 percent, of his supporters back his candidacy “very enthusiastically,” compared with 38 percent of Romney’s. There is also a difference in motivation, with 75 percent of Obama supporters saying their vote is “for” him, in contrast with 59 percent of Romney’s backers saying their vote is “against” Obama. (There was a similar distinction in 2004, with President George W. Bush’s supporters affirmatively behind him, and most of Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry’s aligned in opposition to the Republican.)

This is also something Obama is helping to change everyday.

Romney’s business background has been a focus of the ads against him — and the spots have had some results. Compared with February, more people in the eight states identified as “toss­ups” by The Washington Post now say Romney did more to cut than create jobs in the United States when he worked as a corporate investor before entering politics. And twice as many swing-state voters consider Romney’s work in buying and restructuring companies a reason to oppose, rather than to support, his candidacy. Just over half of all voters say that work is not a big factor for them.

Once again, this would have been a good place for the Washington Post to point out that these anti-Romney ads are simply untrue, even according to the Washington Post.

Voters in these swing states — all of which Obama won in 2008 — divide down the middle on whether their vote will be more about what the president has done in his first term or what they think he would do if reelected. That distinction makes a pivotal difference: Nationwide, political independents focused on a prospective second-term side with Obama over Romney, but those assessing Obama’s first term prefer Romney by more than 20 percentage points.

Hilarious. Only half of those polled thought Obama’s record was important? The other half think it is more important what he might do in the future? Why do they think he will change? He has never shown the slightest ability to change.

The challenge for the president may be trying to turn attention away from a stubbornly negative take on his performance.

Oh, that.

His overall rating hasn’t budged since May, with 47 percent of Americans approving and 49 percent disapproving, hardly the split an incumbent would hope to see when facing reelection. Intensity continues to run against him, with more people strongly disapproving of his work than strongly approving.

On the campaign’s top issue, the economy, 54 percent of all adults and 60 percent of independents give Obama negative marks.

This is crazy. Those numbers should be far higher. And if Obama didn’t have the news media constantly providing cover for him, they would be.

But when measured against Romney on the economy, voters divide about evenly, with 48 percent saying they trust the former Massachusetts governor and 45 percent saying they have more faith in the president. Obama has a 12-point advantage on the question of which candidate has a clearer plan to deal with the country’s economic woes.

Again, this is crazy. Obama’s plan is more of the same. And we see where that has gotten us.

Obama’s biggest counterweight to the economic drag on his candidacy continues to be double-digit advantages among registered voters on important attributes. He has a clear lead over Romney on who has greater empathy for people facing economic problems and on standing up for his beliefs. On appearing “more friendly and likable,” Obama maintains an advantage of better than 2 to 1.

Even one-third of voters backing Romney consider the president to be the more likable of the two.

Again, you have to wonder why? What has Obama ever done to make us like him?

But, then again, the news media has been doing his PR for four years now.

Americans split evenly on the Supreme Court’s recent 5 to 4 decision upholding Obama’s health-care law, with 42 percent approving of the decision and 44 percent opposing it. But in a significant change, the legislation is now viewed less negatively than it was before the ruling. In the new survey, 47 percent support the law and 47 percent oppose it. In April, 39 percent backed it and 53 percent opposed it…

Somehow we don’t believe this, either. We are supposed to believe more people support Obama-Care now that they know it is really just a tax on the uninsured?

By the way, in typical fashion the Washington Post oversampled Democrats and ‘Independents’ (who are largely Democrats) compared to Republicans. The respondents self identified as Democrats 33%, Independents 36%, and only 24% Republicans.

When are we ever going to get a poll that looks like America?

This article was posted by Steve on Tuesday, July 10th, 2012. Comments are currently closed.

2 Responses to “WP Poll: Obama And Romney Deadlocked At 47%”

  1. AcornsRNutz says:

    Articles like this have two sides I feel. One the one hand, it shows that it is almost impossible to deny that obama has made a lot of unpopular moves and is slipping. On the other hand, conservatives are getting the idea that this will be another “referendum” type of election, and I think that is why these liberal rags occasionally run these articles showing Romney’s prospects improving, to put us at ease and stall our efforts. We can’t let that work. We also can’t believe our own hype to much. There is a good AT article which points out the obvious that conservatives have too often overlooked. There is still a latge percentage of the population that does not know or chooses not to learn the things that we take for granted about obama, and thus there is still a good portion of voters who really do want to vote for obama. The polls might be skewed, but we can’t take that chance. It’s got to be a landslide. When obama really gets the ball rolling on vote buying via more executive decisions, we risk losing a little here, a little there and that will add up. I would say that these undecided are the truly politically illiterate, and the most likely to be bought off, and they really could tip the scales.

  2. canary says:

    Obama’s brother stars in anit-Obama film

    The Blaze: Barack Obama’s Impoverished Half-Brother Makes Film Debut in Dinesh D‘Souza’s Anti-Obama Documentary

    President Barack Obama may be less-than-content over reports that his half-brother, George Obama, appears in “2016: Obama’s America,” a documentary that is highly critical of the president. But now that footage from the film has leaked, the frustration level at the White House — and within the Obama family — could be slated to rise exponentially.

    The Hollywood Reporter secured exclusive footage of the film, which is based on King’s College president and writer Dinesh D’Souza’s controversial book ”The Roots of Obama’s Rage.” D’Souza apparently tracked George down to discuss a variety of subjects, including past media reports that he is impoverished and lives in a hut in Naironi, Kenya — a surprising fact considering that his half-brother is the leader of the free world.

    “He’s got other issues to deal with,” George responds. “He’s taking care of the world, so he’s taking care of me.”

    The Hollywood reporter continues, providing more alleged details about the film and the aforementioned interview:

    The focus of the movie, though, is the alleged anger at colonialism that President Obama inherited from his (and George’s) father.

    As D’Souza puts it in the book: “This philandering, inebriated African socialist, who raged against the world for denying him the realization of his anti-colonial ambitions, is now setting the nation’s agenda through the reincarnation of his dreams in his son.”

    D’Souza, therefore, presses that theory with George Obama, and seems to get agreement from him, as the president’s brother argues that Kenya has fallen behind since its independence.

    The two also talked about George’s book, “Homeland,” which was released in 2010. “2016” was produced by Gerald Molen, who has an impressive Hollywood resume, including “Schindler’s List,“ ”Jurassic Park“ and ”Rain Man,” among other films. The documentary opens in Houston on July 13.


    click Interview George says whites helps make Africa better.

    George is the little brother Obama snuck on school playground to meet the little boy, and just stood there as the teachers yelled at big brother Obama & sisters yelling at them to leave, as they were trying to protect the young child playing from strangers who might have been trying to kidnap the poor little George for all they knew. So big brother Obama said he would someday help his little brother George who would have made a better leader than Obama.

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